Holston_River_Rambler

1st and 3rd creeks look ugly. Pics soon.

Urban flooding in N Knoxville now. Just saw video of a section of road completely submerged and a fire truck half covered in water and tipping over

Looks like it is all trying to lift out, but I'm not real happy with the orientation the band is taking: And look at those storms popping around Arklatex....

Not only is I 40 closed now, but also 441 Newfound Gap: No explanation that I can find on the NP website or GSMNP road specific twitter account.

Much of central E TN now upgraded to a flood warning.

6z Euro

For posterity, the whole valley just looks ugly this AM:

Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 603 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 TNC055-099-181-231300- /O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190223T1300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wayne TN-Lawrence TN-Giles TN- 603 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST FOR WAYNE...LAWRENCE AND GILES COUNTIES... At 601 AM CST, local law enforcement reported a water rescue of a family from a home in the Prospect community of southern Giles County. Radar indicates moderate to heavy rain continues across the warned area this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms extending well off to the southwest through northwest Alabama and northern Mississippi. Flash flooding is expected to continue for several more hours. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Waynesboro, Loretto, Collinwood, Summertown, Clifton, Ardmore, St. Joseph, Elkton, Minor Hill, Ethridge, Lynnville, Henryville, Cypress Inn, Flatwoods, Lutts, Goodspring, Leoma and Westpoint. This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 22.

Ah firehose, how I've missed you. Looks like the NAM muffed this one yesterday for E TN. The RGEM did a little better and sadly as of the 6z run keeps the rain going all day long (small break around 3 -5 PM maybe) until the cold front and storms finally pass.

For posterity, just an amazing number of watches/ warnings for individual rivers in E. TN:

Yeah, first thing I did when I saw that radar was look at the HRRR and thought, "seriously?" NAM has some areas getting to an inch by 10 tonight and even that looks low compared to the actual radar.

Looking at radar, it looks like some areas may have absolutely no trouble hitting an inch in 3 hours this evening.

Looks like Cumberland Falls flow has increased dramatically since I was there last week. Much higher and there won't be a waterfall anymore. If you've never been there it's hard to express how high the water would hav to be.

Highway 70 mudslide in Hawkins county. Been a long time since I've heard of a mudslide in our area closing a highway. A wreck associated with it: https://www.wvlt.tv/content/news/Mudslide-shuts-down-High-70-in-Hawkins-County-506145721.html

I'm not saying it looks great in any way, but having 5 - 6" inches fall over half the watershed instead of all the watershed has to be better in some small way. Getting emails from the Euro people so I'm being a little more descriptive with their non-free maps for a bit.

and of course as soon as I write this, more convective showers start to develop.

Whoever that is should face prosecution if it was malicious.

I'm all for any dry air we can get at this point. Every little bit will help. For my neck of the woods, very happy the intense rain seems to have evaporated on radar as it pushed off the plateau this afternoon. Even though that may not help areas downstream now, hopefully it helps some in the long run.

Yeah, Beaver Creek seems like it is almost in a perpetual mini flood, even when it is relatively dry. Still, it's something to see it lapping up against the high voltage towers as you drive down Emory toward Clinton highway.

Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm

No sleet for me in Knoxville, but huge, fat rain drops with the leading edge. Some culvert near a local market already gushing water after maybe 20 minutes of this. Hoping for a clap or two of thunder tonight.

Euro a little more optimistic for East TN this morning with a widespread 3 - 4" over the next 10 days. 5 - 7" (isolated 8) for areas west of the Cumberland plateau, so still not so good for the overall watershed. Fortunately 10"+ amounts no longer showing up, but I guess some of that from several days ago has already fallen.

I feel like the RGEM did pretty well with the last slug of moisture and it looks quite a bit more widespread that the NAM this AM. Interestingly though, if it is right with the precip maximum, that would be a better place for it since there is a mini divide there. All water does go to the Gulf, but there it flows straight in from AL, instead of going through the TN to the Mississippi.