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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Windspeed beat me to it, lol! I was trying to find some site that had a weird ratio accum. map to post. If we assume 30:1 ratios someone would have over a foot!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing some readings on Wunderground this AM in the 20s on the plateau. A 27 near Obed. I live near the Mossy Grove KTNOAKDA6 station and we're close to freezing at 35.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Downright wintery feel this AM at Frozen Head, after the warmth. 47 in the parking lot and probably a few degrees cooler as I went up 1000 or so feet. Raining up there and though I'm sure it was still waaaayyyy up there, the rain/snow line at least felt close.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Too soon?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the past few years the apathy for Vol football hasn't set in until November. Don't get me wrong, I'll still watch, but I think GA State went ahead and dashed all hope, lol.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    A nice shower as I headed from Harriman up toward Morgan County. I had almost forgotten what a cloudy day looked like, lol. Some storms towards Nashville, hopefully we can get a better shower this evening too!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here in Knoxville WBIR has been showing records possibly falling Thursday - the end of the 7 day forecast. I only mention WBIR because I can't remember seeing so many days on the 7 day with records listed next to the highs. We'll see if my new location in southern MoCo can help me get a quick rain shower this PM. Just south/ sw of Frozen head mts, so hopefully I can get a small upslope enhancement.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Visiting a friend in North Knoxville yesterday and heard a report of a very small brush fire. Not sure of the specific location, but would likely have been near Sharp's Ridge.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least a little relief in regards to temps for eastern areas (hopefully, though MRX in the afternoon disco basically said still above normal) with backdoor cool front Struggling convection seen from Lone Mountain in Morgan county looking south towards the Great Valley, as the front wriggled through: Some drier air was working in toward the top of the mountain, but humidity still laying in the valley as I descended.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Satellite loop of today's storms:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    This was all that was left of the rotation over Clinton in the radar loop above, when it moved over Knoxville, just north of my area (in a one minute time lapse): Radar loop at the same time:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The cell in Knox now has a warning too. Decent hook on radar and each of the three cells behind the Knox county one look like they may have a little hook on radar too:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tornado warning in Hancock County and a couplet just north of Knoxville:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    30 day precip update:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip. is booking it across the area this AM. That shortwave ain't fooling around.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM: 0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    So how about that Euro overnight? Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow.
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