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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at all the individual EPS members for the hr 192 deal, probably the best look for a winter threat this season. Now that may not be saying much, but there seemed to be several solutions that favored a system south of us, or some version of OP. Last night, many looked like cutters, but a nice shift IMO.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if it is spliting the difference between some Miller As and Bs
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS seems to want a Apps runner for the 13 - 15th storm, but still a ways yet to go:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can we get the below pattern again in Jan and Feb? k plz thx
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    After yesterday's thunder saw this: Thunder in November and December was thought to portend a peaceful, fruitful year ahead, sadly no mention of snow, but snow is important for a good year to me, lol. "On November hit bodeth [a] blissfull year"
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is a fun system for sure. Nice squall line in middle TN now heading this way. Maybe it will surprise with the NW flow tomorrow night too!
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    More thunder in Morgan County. Pretty good cell just to my north. Two thunderstorms = two snowfalls, right??? There is a mountain nearby too.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    First official winter observation: Thunder rolling on the plateau. The most thunder I've heard in a while. Some rolling for over a minute. starts about 10 seconds in, would have recorded longer but my wife interrupted my weather geek out Edit, as the storm gets closer, it has the most vivid lightning I've seen while in Morgan county.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks really nice too.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think last year's December storm was while the MJO was in 3. Would fit for this year too if one were to materialize. Overall I'm still much happier with the tropical convection situation than last year. I think even the worst case depiction on the Wheeler diagrams only takes it to the end of 3 toward 4. Looks to me like most models want to take it back into the COD. The Euro definitely wants to extend the Pac jet, but also looks like the oft tweeted Sea of Okhotsk/ Kamchatka low that is helping to drive that jet is pumping up a big EPO ridge. Further east that translates to some blocking and maybe forcing some storms further south, just not sold yet that energy can get beneath us. But we have an interesting NWP coincidence where the Euro and GFS have energy in similar places over North America at the a similar time. [The GFS gif begins after the Euro one ends, sorry for any confusion].
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least in the near term, been pretty nice to see the consistency with the depiction of the NW flow event next Sunday night into Monday AM. Moisture all the way up to 500mb with a nice flow off of Lake Michigan: Gives us this: (Is that a 6" near Blunderstorm?!) Obviously NE and elevation favored, but I'm curious to see if I can get a flurrific band here SW of the Frozen Head mts with this set up. The flow looks a lot like the one that kept me in flurries all day a couple of weeks ago, if I go by that nice image Knoxtron took of the accumulations from that storm: I'm just afraid flow from that direction ain't gonna last too long, so areas that do better with a WNW or NW flow will probably get more bands. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of long range model flip-flops, just as a hypothetical to add to what tnweathernut posted, happy hour GFv3S brings the long range goods. Obviously it is what it is, not meant to be taken literally, all the necessary caveats, but that is a nice possible look with the energy diving towards the gulf and a stuck 50/50.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z Euro looked even better for that. Would be a nice atmosphere for setting up Christmas decorations!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just when I think the GFS can't surprise me, it does. One of the more bizarre looks for the pattern over North America I've ever seen at the end of its run. Almost like it is trying to set up the same pattern that caused flooding last Feb. but with snow.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro weeklies look awful. Hopefully that is an awesome sign!!!! Last year it seemed like reality was the opposite of what they foretold:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will call this one a win if I can get it within SREF plume range and get to try and extrapolate the incoming NAM, lol! Think you have to wait for the typical 6, 12, 18 and 0z runs? No says I! Just SREF ninjy 'em at 3, 9, 15 and 21z!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is love!? Euro is life!?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another fancy ERA5, this day in weather history (1993 ERA5 still my fav). 3 feet of snow atop LeConte though!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    via Imgflip Meme Generator
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of snow, it is almost that magical time of year again, time for the EPS 45 day maps!!!!!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Windspeed beat me to it, lol! I was trying to find some site that had a weird ratio accum. map to post. If we assume 30:1 ratios someone would have over a foot!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Too soon?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the past few years the apathy for Vol football hasn't set in until November. Don't get me wrong, I'll still watch, but I think GA State went ahead and dashed all hope, lol.
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