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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the TPV is a big part of it too. That -NAO we got a bit back has helped roll it over the pole toward Alaska and even if some base state wanted to help us out with -AO or -EPO, just can't happen right now.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wold go for 6/7 then based on that diagram. That shows a more precip closer to New Guinea for a 6 alone. The CPC's diagram runs the dateline just east of Fiji and the deepest convection is just east of Fiji:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is that going to translate to anything other than more of the same? I don't know, but I do think it is at least in more favorable phases for now.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me to be phase 7 - 8. If this diagram is right, 6 would be over New Guinea. But I guess this diagram could be wrong. Is there an official CPC one to reference?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can see the TPV being pushed toward Alaska this AM (red arrows are the flow that is rolling the TPV (look in the white circle)). But wait, what is that??? Dohhh Now I know why all this is going on!! Santa needed that extra umph to jump start his trip toward the dateline to begin delivering presents. Hopefully by the 26th it will start to roll back our way.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Convection looking better in the MJO regions this AM nice, colder clouds near the dateline SOI has dropped nearly 12 points in response. Indian Ocean looks tamer this AM too. Most of the convection is south of the equator and looks like it is associated with a TC:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have discovered what happened. In late October, of an evening, I was attending a wedding. It was beautiful. Even more beautiful than most. Perhaps, even more beautiful than a December snow, when the AO is positive. On my way home, back to Morgan County, I decided it would be a good idea to get a Cruze Farm pizza. Now, for those of you not blessed to have lived in east Knox county the past few years, Cruze Farm has crafted a pizza barn. Handmade, woodfired pizza: as good as it gets. Now, to be fair, I was in a good mood, no a great mood after a rainy wedding. Normally, a rainy wedding might put a person off, but this wedding was at a venue suited for sun, clouds, rain, or snow, because it was in an old(ish) school's gym, on the banks of the Holston. The rain put no damper on my mood and the thought of the pizza later that evening only buoyed it further. When I got to the pizza barn though, the skies were alive: (That is real footage from Strawberry Plains area at the pizza barn on October 19.) I knew that the ancient Romans practiced augury, the practice of observing the flight of birds and from that extrapolating the future. "What does this portend?" I asked myself. And then I knew the answer. The birds must be summoned to flap the TPV into an auspicious place. I, myself, was no augur. So I knew I had to just let it go and try to enjoy my pizza, no matter how hard it was. Days past. Fall arrived. Then a month. Snows fell: I thought: "This will be a winter to remember!" But alas, mid-December came and reality set in. However, up to then I had only seen the Mandalorian, and only knew of the powers of baby yoda. 'Tis it, I thought, shall rend the SPV in twain and force the cold air south. But now, after watching The Rise of Skywalker, I know the truth. My hope was misplaced. Baba Frick 4 life.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS waaayyyy out there is trying to show some light at the end of the tunnel. As Carver's pointed out this AM, all that cold air is at least on our side of the globe and not in Siberia (no sloshing necessary) So if things do change and the TPV heads towards Hudson's Bay as its showing at 12z today, there will be no trouble finding a source of the cold.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro has blessed us with another rainy southern upper low! However, does appear to be finally reeling in to OP range the first (even if transient) cold shot the EPS has been showing. Might even be trying to give us a little Upper Low help to go with it:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Would have been beautiful!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting line of enhancement overnight running from the Smokies to the plateau: Any ideas on that one? Looks to me it runs almost directly E to W, starting just north of Mt Le Conte and ending at the plateau near Harriman. You can even see some subsidence north of it and reenhancement north of the subsidence. Infared kinda shows it too as some of the cloud tops cool on the leeside of the Smokies, but it doesn't look as linear here.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still a lot of conflict in the tropics this AM, but the W Pac has the most convection I've seen in a while: Without that TC near the Philippines, the MC would look pretty docile. Western 3rd of the Indian Ocean still looking hoppin' The above is a longer loop to show how that area's convection has changed in approx. the last month. You can see the little break we got there and then convection move back in. Not sure what to make of it other than to say I feel like when convection there was more beneficial earlier, there appears to have been more over Africa at the time. Meanwhile we have our own OLR stoppage and maaann it's a beaut:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    In the mean time I hope we all like rain in the eastern valley, N. GA and N. AL. RGEM out preciping the NAM:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Agree, that is the hope! Although to be fair the GFS did try to give us an operational fantasy storm last night. I'll put it here so we can at least see teh possibility such a pattern could hold, even if the chances of this precise scenario verifying are minuscule: For now, looks rainy this weekend with a well-nigh perfectly tracking upper low, if there were only some cold around. Moisture fetch waaayyyy into the Pacific.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't think you're missing anything. That's definitely how the OP Euro and GFS looked last night. What we've been looking for and talking about yesterday is still a little outside the operational models believable range. Ensembles are still showing it, but that's just a smoothed mean that looks better than it it did a couple of days ago.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course only 10:1 ratios will do here:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beat me to it, lol!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the GFS is about to give us an epic slider!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS 850s: 500 mb pattern: and precip:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know if y'all keep up with NCHailstorm in the SE, but he had some theories last year about the solar wind impacting the convection. Do y'all think that has anything to do with what we're talking about too?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I'm reading Webb right, and lord knows I may not be, he is arguing that we will see convection in areas like the MC and Western Pac that normally would normally look on the surface like they would lead to La Nina like conditions, actually lead to El Nino like conditions regarding the 500 mb pattern over North America. He was a little more explicit about it on Southernwx and 33 and Rain (although apparently they have spies looking for people copying info posted there, so I won't be more specific) and on 33 Masiello seemed to agree, at least that the RMM MJO plot wasn't the whole story, but then again, you could probably say that about the RMMs MJO plot at any time, so typically ambiguous for him.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Timing was perfect, had to have been the rocket:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I never seen noctilucent clouds here, but maybe this was what I saw this AM: That's about what it looked like. Man I wish I had gotten a photo.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apologies for what follows. I was actually trying to find a picture of the noctilucent clouds I saw before sunrise this AM, but what I saw when I logged into twitter prompted the following. Webb has an intersting tweet this AM regarding the MJO and is having a dialogue with one of the important scholars in that area of research this AM: Main take away for what we are talking about here is this from the article he links to: "A similar analysis demonstrates that the Madden–Julian oscillation probably exhibits spread across a range of spatial scales that would also require multiple EOFs for full characterization." The author of the paper Webb links, Paul Roundy, responded with some research published just last month in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorlogical Society: Roundy offers this summary and as I read it critique of Wheeler's (I know most know this, but for people wondering, Wheeler is the scientist who developed the RMM plot,) revised formula for figuring out the MJO: "Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) assumed that the spectrum of OLR data consists of red background noise plus signals of coherent wave propagation projecting above that background, and that wave signals along with some noise can be filtered from a spectral field dominated mostly by noise, retaining only regions of the spectrum proximate to selected peaks above an estimated background where signal is stronger. To diagnose the favoured bands, they assumed a null hypothesis that the entire spectrum represented red noise. This assumption implies that the null background spectrum includes the same amount of power as the original spectrum." Conclusions that relate to what we are talking about: "This result supports the hypothesis that the things we call convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist over a much broader region of the spectrum than the normalized peak, with the strongest similar signals occurring at lower frequencies, and that these signals overlap in the spectrum with the things we identify as MJO events. These results imply that tropical meteorologists need to rethink how we diagnose convectively coupled equatorial waves and the MJO to be more inclusive to the full range of disturbances actually observed." TL;DR: The RMM is not the whole story, especially in a global regime of a lot of conflicting signals. As Carver's argued for above, some caution is needed here. Don't take this paper as an argument that the RMM is wrong. It is neither more right or wrong than it was an hour ago before I read the above. In fact, on the surface there does look to be some moderately healthy convection in the MJO phase 6 region: But also on the surface there also appears to be equally healthy convection in phase 1/2 regions: Webb has really put himself out there (may have even burnt some professional bridges on the twitterscape) arguing for a west Modoki El Nino this year, so he has a vested interest. But as spread out as convection has been and with conflicting signals and NWP (models) struggling, the idea of multiple, conflicting signals is an appealing way to read where we're at in the N. hemisphere right now. I really like that the EPS: and the GEFS: give us the TPV again at the end of their runs and the GEFS even gives us that trough east of Hawaii that seems to correlate to some of our best storms.
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