Holston_River_Rambler

The Para GFS still wants to swing the trough through. Not saying it's right, but was reading the AFDs from Grand Junction this AM (never hurts to dream of cool and snow, right? lol) and they seem somewhat skeptical of the Euro's cutoff solution (not throwing it out for sure though). Maybe this system flip flops in the 5 day window and turns out a little more progressive? It's 2020, so probably not, but I guess it is still on, at least, the edge of the table, that the front might get more of a push. I'll take any damage high latitude energy can do to that Atlantic High.

Hopefully it makes it. I'm starting to get worried that it is going to get hung up on the western edge of the Atlantic high. A few days ago it was plowing through on both the Euro and GFS, but it seems to be trending to want to dump more west now on both. boo At least it looks like a certainty we get a mini humidity reprieve this weekend.

Took a socially distant camping trip to finish some writing work to the CO, UT, and NM Rockies. https://imgur.com/a/E4bDAlg Some low humidity and cool night vides to help get through the humidity these days

Hopefully we get a small taste of it soon. Really hoping Isaias can help pull a trough through for dewpoint relief. It's like walking out into a swimming pool when I go outside, lol

It completely died before it made it to my place in Morgan County; I didn't even see a drop of rain. Some nice wind gusts as what was left came through, but that was it.

This convective system looks pretty healthy to me, compared to the CAMs anyway: Good and sunny upstream too, between it and me, although beyond that I'm not too good at ready the mesoscale analysis pages for severe/ strong storm parameters. To me it looks like it will make a nice charge Paris -> Nashville -> Crossville -> Knoxville

Got some pea sized hail with this line as it is coming through Morgan County

That plateau one is about to hammer me. Looks like it was bowing out a bit the last few NEXRAD frames

Sorry the above should say glad there's **NOT** a ton of sunshine.

12z new HRRR4 or whatever it is now is throwing some sort (I say that because it has a little black swath overhead) of severe storm right over my head at 23 - 0z this evening. Also popping some CAPE and decent (300 -occasionally 400) helicity values in my neck of the woods. 14z old HRRR looks similar. Not sure it will make a difference, but glad there's a ton of sunshine in sight right now.

There's a storm in N AL that's looking healthy.

We hit about 30 and a couple of basil plants bit the dust, but surprisingly the tomatoes look good. This is the first year we've owned a house and this one came with a garden, so will be interested to see how all this does.

Yeah same here. Lucked out with some heavy rain to knock the pollen down though.

Thanks Jeff and Calderon for the replies. McMinn, sorry about the outbreak word, I was probably too loose with that as far off as things are now. It is 2020 after all though, so my mind just went to worst case right away, lol. Yeah, hopefully something kills this threat Sunday AM, no one needs power outages and other major infrastructure problems right now.

This Easter Sunday outbreak looks like it could be ugly to me on the Euro. I don't know very much about severe parameters or exactly how ugly, but as Webb's cyclone map that Windspeed posted says, one look at that is all I need. I am not a fan of storms moving SW -> NE with a strong upper low moving over the bootheel of Missouri, since that can send them right up the river valleys in East TN with a lot of shear. Most damaging storms I can remember have that motion. Looking at Pivotal soundings, still looks like most of the worst is S and SE of east TN, but all I'm going on is the "threat box" if that is what it is called, where it tells you the possible wx threats. Most soundings over middle E TN give a "Marginal Severe" result, with "Marginal Tornado" nearer Nashville, but near Chatt it is giving a tornado result, with storms moving up the TN river valley near the mts. Euro suggests that there could be a bigger line/ clusters of cells moving through first, and then more with a secondary line of discrete cells as the front moves through. What do y'all who know a lot more about severe weather think?

@Greyhound thought of you when I saw this video this AM Pretty high water at the end.

For those who imbibe and are interested, Burial Beer in Asheville is now shipping to TN. The shipping cost isn't too bad ($14 for 70 bucks worth, cheaper than gas to drive there for me).

And of course the rain pipeline just won't abate either. Sunshine might at least let us get out in our backyards a bit. Only speaking for myself, it would cheer me up too.

Morgan county sheriff is reporting that the NWS has confirmed an EF0 in western parts of the county. I'm guessing it was what was left of the same cell when it got here.

Yeah I woke up about 2 to some critter scratching in my attic and decided that maybe I should check out the radar. I saw what was going on just east of Nashville and then logged on here and saw what y'all were saying and tried to stay awake until it got closer, but fell asleep until 5 AM. By then the main storm had moved just north of me and the smaller ones were rolling through. Freaked my dogs out pretty good (and me until I saw that the worst on was east of me), but thankfully no major problems in my neighborhood this AM.

Def. looks like a healthy cell right now in S. Illinois

I need to find this. What is it called, lol. Surprised facebook hasn't "recommended" it to me yet.

GFS has my happy little storm back:

Whutttt? Euro has the weird (well a slightly less weird and warmer version of the) GFS 6z storm. AND no flooding. Feels like winning: