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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    front yard, day 1: several creeks crossing the roads in my area of Morgan county (Mossy Grove)
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 500 mb pattern for that Ice Storm in Jan 1951, from NCEP reanalysis:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    If anyone (like me) has a masochistic urge to go back and look at old Himawari 8 images for comparison, here ye go: https://seg-web.nict.go.jp/wsdb_osndisk/shareDirDownload/bDw2maKV?sI=D531106,D531107,TI,D531106m,D531107m,TIm,evm&sIt=data_im&lang=en
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51070870 Article about how the Euro uses ultraviolet beams from a satellite to gauge wind speeds in the atmosphere.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    That part of the line that produced the tornado moved right over my neighborhood in Morgan County. I was gone, luckily nothing here except some large limbs down, but my wife was here and said it was pretty rough. TROWAL dog apparently tried to hide behind the toilet.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    About 2 inches so far now. EPS mean starting to show 7 inches in some spots over the next 15 days: Individual city charts:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm at 1.4" since midnight and the firehose really just started in the past half hour. Not promising to see a bunch of flash flood warnings in its wake:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Firehose has geared up for the evening. The only question is where will it ultimately aim?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The cell over my area right now means business. Loudest thunder, heaviest rain, and most lightning of the night. Headed your way John.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nothing like what's happened further south, but some very vivid lightning on the plateau as I drove in from Knoxville.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Radar looks healthy over the south:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Satellite loop of today's storms:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    This was all that was left of the rotation over Clinton in the radar loop above, when it moved over Knoxville, just north of my area (in a one minute time lapse): Radar loop at the same time:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The cell in Knox now has a warning too. Decent hook on radar and each of the three cells behind the Knox county one look like they may have a little hook on radar too:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tornado warning in Hancock County and a couplet just north of Knoxville:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    30 day precip update:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip. is booking it across the area this AM. That shortwave ain't fooling around.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM: 0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in.
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