Holston_River_Rambler

This was such a wild look, I thought it was worth being the beginning of a new banter thread for spring GFS really out did itself at 6z: Before we've had storms cut from New Orleans to Chicago, it decided to do the opposite this time.

Thanks @weathertree4u @nrgjeff and @Windspeed for the thoughts on that guy. I saw that Masiello followed him when he created his account, so thought at that time that maybe he had some good info. I suspected he was trying to sell the low solar = better winters or hurricane seasons, but he was pretty obfuscate about how he did it and I just couldn't make heads or tails of it.

Same here, lol.

Anyone want to take a stab at deciphering this guy?

Overnight Euro OP looks pretty good for y'all in terms of its pattern. As is my custom, here is some random map that I don't quite understand, but since I'm still paying these people for access to their stuff, might as well use it for something.

I don't think it is off topic at all @Save the itchy algae!. Good questions and a fair point. I think it definitely is, as raindancewx states and you suggest, "relative" given the major recent losses in sea ice up there. I had actually not looked at it and just from hearing what people had been saying, assumed the ++++AO and +++EPO had to rebuild quite a bit. However, sho nuff, you're right. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Since it was in banter and raindancewx didn't cite sources, it could be that this article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3618-9#Sec15 was the one he was using for the claim (conclusions from that study): The spatial pattern of those CI persistent anomalies that lead the NAO by 1 year is quasi-annular about the Arctic-high latitudes coast, extending over the West Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador coast and the North-East Okhotsk sea (with positive anomalies leading the NAO positive phase). The maximal phase of this co-variability is triggered when a high pressure anomaly develops 1 year before the NAO+ (low pressure for NAO-) over the Central Arctic extending over North Greenland-Canadian Archipelago-Baffin Bay with centres also over the Laptev Sea and North Barents Sea. This “Arctic bridge” appears as a pre-conditioning feature of the maximal NAO phase, being systematic under transient climates. Its role is linked to cold advection over both: the North-Western Atlantic and North-Western Pacific with evaporative ocean cooling, low pressure formation and persistent latent heat advection over the mid-latitudes land. So a persistent, annular, negative meridional thermal gradient is achieved about the Arctic coast, leading positive vorticity over Central Arctic the following year (when leading NAO+). A mode of CI variability captures this pattern and is leading the NAO index by 1 year, having similar spectral properties to the NAO index. The highest leading correlation of this mode is obtained over ([35°N–90°N]), domain that couples the Arctic with the high-latitudes. Another thing to consider is that the NAO is measured at sea level, not higher up where we usually want it for blocking and I'm guessing most researchers, even if they like snow like us, have to go by how the measurement is taken to get their results published. While he may be on shakier ground concerning the sea ice, there has also been talk of the lag after the solar minimum producing an NAO, so I thought I'd look at that too. Probably the most famous once of these is 2009 - 10: and here is the solar plot: That hypothesis also checks out in 1998 or so: It gets less evident in the late 80s though: As you go further back there is a correlation again, but that was also with an favorable AMO, so that could have had a say too.

You severe folks can correct me, but this looks to me like it has severe potential written all over it:

Yeah I think I it’s just going to depend on where the firehouse sets up. It was showing 6+ in some places south and west. Not a guarantee, but I’d say there is a potential to overperform

EPS means of 7.5- 8 inches back in N Alabama:

Oliver Springs area:

wow. was wondering how things were down your way, looks like y'all still getting hammered

When I was up there a guy told me to look at it, but recommended I not do it today, lol. I didn't even know there was a tunnel until today. Here is the picnic area: Random tree floating down:

Oliver Springs area between OS and Oak Ridge:

Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory: Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head: Highway 62 at the Emory River:

Hearing reports that parts of Highway 27 in Roane/ Morgan county are under water now.

Downtown Sunbright from 8 hours ago. from Morgan County today facebook page:

Euro backed off on the rain totals overnight, but not by too much:

Top of the line rolling through now. Sounds like a tropical downpour. More vivid lightning https://giphy.com/gifs/XdD1lHWteTEi6MPD0B

Wow. In only 27 hours... looks like 6-7 in the southern, eastern great valley this is one heck of a system.

Apparently you have to have a special camera to catch lightning. I had my phone set up and got a super vivid flash and this was all it took: All you can see is a little bit of light through the trees, and you better be in a dark room, lol

Yeah, first edge of that mess is hitting me now. Heaviest rain of the day and lightning now.

This looks pleasant:

18z GEFS has a nearly 13" MEAN lollipop in SW NC:

Hard to believe, but here we are.

Euro precip projections. Up close and personal: EPS city plots: