Holston_River_Rambler

Looking at GOES 16 this AM, as the sun rises, you can faintly see the areas where upslope vs downslope occurs with the textures of the cloud tops.

Just about to say something similar John. Flurries in Knoxville and one of the few days this winter that has a wintery feel to it. Normally I'm not a fan of cloudy and cold, but I'm just so tried of the rain that these types of clouds seem nice. I never thought I'd say I was starting to distinguish between types of cloudy days, (and like some more than others) but there it is. Went to Petty John's Cave in N GA yesterday and it was just a washout. Interesting experience being in a cave with a torrential downpour with saturated ground. You can really see where/ how the cave making happens.

Precip. is booking it across the area this AM. That shortwave ain't fooling around.

Looks to me like it is already worse than pretty much every model predicted for today, even 6z suite this AM: 0z ARW2 wasn't too bad with it's progression. I understand the yellows/ oranges on NEXRAD aren't exact equivalencies to a models 6/3 hr precip. or projected radar depiction, but still, those look like pretty high rates moving in.

Found a better close up:

Sun's out! VOLS win! Weird ebb and flow of the clouds off the plateau. They seem to recede, then move back. Maybe front to NW came through?

So how about that Euro overnight? Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow.

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up.

FWIW 6z NAM pretty crappy this AM: Forecast: Reality: Obviously this doesn't mean it will be right or wrong about the next system, but like the training over Knoxville, models still really struggling even as an event is happening. WV GOES 16 does seem to hint that there could be some additional development NW of current precip, but not much as of now. Thankfully as of this AM the trend over the past 3 runs on NAM is for a system with a more southerly axis of heavier precip. As the above comparison shows though, who knows what will actually verify. Euro still south too with the heaviest rain: It also seems to be overdoing the northern extent of precip this AM, unless there is something radar is missing, always a possibility with the plateau. 0z Euro also tries to give our eastern areas a dusting next Friday with a clipper type system. Any guesses on how long it teases us?

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite MRX write up

Last 30 days for perspective

Updated NWS 7 day precip map to include the last training over Eastern Valley:

I was able to see the video from MS yesterday when another person posted a link to the site in question, but after the ads I saw on that site yesterday, I won't go to anything labelled meteotube unless I have to. "Very original site". Yes. Yes it is.

I know there are still major problems down stream, but for Knoxville the creeks are quickly receding. OH and TN Valleys need every dry break we can get!

Didn't realize weathermodels had this until your question prompted me to look.

Videos of flooding in Knox county from Knox county mayor.

Sadly it looks like what is left of the convection in N AL is heading straight for portions of E TN. At least the end is in sight now on radar with no more for several days.

And now this insanity: (Not me in case you are wondering)

mudslide? at Laurel Run Park in Hawkins County:

A strange little thunderstorm has just developed in the foothills in Blount county. I just can't image how the atmosphere could possible be conducive to that even now that we're in the warm sector:

Latest HRRR shows them heading straight for Knoxville and it sure looks that way on the radar. Have the hope the atmosphere is much more stable here, but that still leaves us with some heavy rain we don't need.

I'm still pretty new to looking for tornadic storms, but it looks like it has some sort of a circulation:

And to be honest, that MCS line in Middle/ West TN looks like it is also moving more W - E now as a little meso circulation looks like it has formed.