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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm going to be near and possibly on High Knob on Saturday, so hoping I can catch a few flakes. Although recent model runs seem to want the precip shield to be further west than VA. It's a cut off, so I guess we'll know when it develops, lol.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the front came through yesterday, it brought what I thought was one of the best airmasses in what seems like a year. Pollen down and crystal skies before the lower clouds rolled back in and a nice breeze. One pic is of the clear air afterwards and one of the storms as they were building over Knoxville.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I got a content expired on that link.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET looks decent at 500 mb and EPS shows some cold.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, not sure what's up with the precip depiction/ accum maps:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden Euro was interesting this PM. 5 days out. Isn't that the closest anything has come since December? (minus the miracle Sevier/ Blount county/ Dayton leeside micro low storm)
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice little T-Storm just rolled through Harriman. Kind of surprising given how overcast it has been today. Looks like they are popping on satellite though!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    3k NAM (only the best) rather excited about LeConte tonight. Tauntauns might be out, lol Some T-storms showing up on some models for this PM too. Wonder if we will see any thunder/ hail/ graupel. MRX: this afternoon...a short wave trough digs in and convective energy increases. Current forecast seems to have a decent handle on this, and still appears there could be some pea size hail/graupel with the heavier showers and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Controlled burn? Must have been some interesting mid/ upper winds for that smoke to take that weird split path. Definitely noticed it over Knox this PM. https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2019/mar/18/fires-might-be-part-prescribed-burns/490784/ Not sure about the one near Cumberland County though:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Please note this is in no way to prompt a climate change debate. Just thought it was interesting to see how geology can impact climate.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I've got a clump of grass in my backyard that is definitely gonna need a weedeater before all is said and done.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    God bless the little model that could:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm kind of optimistic we have maybe a week or two of it, then get some warmer weather. And at least with a trough we get more movement (aka more sunny days) than if we are just south of an endless screaming ST jet. Also, GFS has been consistently day 10+ showing rain up into Canada. That's gotta be warmer than being just 200 miles south of the R/S line. Euro isn't quite there yet on its runs, but the control looks mildish: EPS looks like it wants to go warm too after day 10: But as Tellico will say, 24hrs = long range this winter, so who knows. You have to think though, no SSW, April around the corner, we have to have some warmer weather sooner or later. Crankyweatherdude has been pretty good with his analysis of the Pac jet (whether predictive skill or just observation of reality) and he seems to think the flip comes after the mid month blip: I've been waiting for one of these big red/ yellow surges to show up on these maps. Hopefully it makes it back to our hemisphere.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    30 day precip update:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thought some of you might be interested in this fun map:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Felt it in Knoxville. First one I've ever felt.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oli Bea for breakfast. (Chicken Biscuit is my favorite, but daily specials can be amazing) Hiking: House Mountain; Norris Dam State Park; Ijams Nature Center Walking: Knoxville Botanical Gardens Mountain Bike: Norris Dam/ South Knoxville Urban Wilderness/ Loyston Point Breweries/ brewpubs: Last Days of Autumn; Clinch River Brewery; Abridged BBQ: Sweet Pea's Downtown Dive (Pimento cheese Dip) If you've never been into the wigsphere Sunsphere, that's worth a visit. If you really want to get fancy in terms of restaurant Lonesome Dove, but it is $$$$$$$ Oliver Hotel speakeasy is an interesting experience Maybe take a few minutes to check out Market Square in downtown (food options, boutique type shopping) Just some of my favs, but we have a few other posters from Knoxville who may chime in too. I live near downtown, so a lot of this is missing probably some great things to do, as we say here, "down west". (West Knoxville)
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can't make it up. Fv3/ GFS like some big old monster east coast storm in the 12+ day period. But wait you say, that's just American models... Well... EPS: And look, I totally get it, that's why this is in banter. I'm READY for a week of sunny, dry, and upper 60s (would 70s be asking too much). But it just continues. Has there been a 12 - 15 days out period that just showed torch this winter on the models? Also, cool conversation above. I was actually wondering something similar regarding winter weather watches/ warnings earlier after one of our snows this winter (the one we had like 30+ pages for an inch or something, lol; and hey I was heavily involve in rooting for that inch). I wonder if it is different for winter watches/ warnings since A. they are often issued relatively earlier or B. people who have lived here a while unconsciously have a decent grasp of our climatology/ their local microclimates and feel like they know what is and what isn't typical. I just remember the social media response to the TV news meteorologists was U-G-L-Y regarding the January storm that only gave our eastern areas (Blount/ east Knox/ Sevier) a light accumulation and I wondered if that would influence folks' decisions or even producers' decisions at those stations if there was a bigger winter threat later. Also, honestly a little curious how much say producers have for TV mets because I had a buddy who told me that he was told a TV met wasn't allowed to use the word "topography" because it was considered too difficult for the audience and might put people off. Total hearsay and could be BS, but I do feel like not just for weather, but for other topics, TV news stations dilute content to a ridiculous level, so as not to lose all important ratings. I guess I sort of get the sense that like most things social media (in this case primarily Facebook and Twitter), people pitch fits on there and in fact their actual responses without that digital outlet would be much more sensible.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at GOES 16 this AM, as the sun rises, you can faintly see the areas where upslope vs downslope occurs with the textures of the cloud tops.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just about to say something similar John. Flurries in Knoxville and one of the few days this winter that has a wintery feel to it. Normally I'm not a fan of cloudy and cold, but I'm just so tried of the rain that these types of clouds seem nice. I never thought I'd say I was starting to distinguish between types of cloudy days, (and like some more than others) but there it is. Went to Petty John's Cave in N GA yesterday and it was just a washout. Interesting experience being in a cave with a torrential downpour with saturated ground. You can really see where/ how the cave making happens.
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