Holston_River_Rambler

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up.

FWIW 6z NAM pretty crappy this AM: Forecast: Reality: Obviously this doesn't mean it will be right or wrong about the next system, but like the training over Knoxville, models still really struggling even as an event is happening. WV GOES 16 does seem to hint that there could be some additional development NW of current precip, but not much as of now. Thankfully as of this AM the trend over the past 3 runs on NAM is for a system with a more southerly axis of heavier precip. As the above comparison shows though, who knows what will actually verify. Euro still south too with the heaviest rain: It also seems to be overdoing the northern extent of precip this AM, unless there is something radar is missing, always a possibility with the plateau. 0z Euro also tries to give our eastern areas a dusting next Friday with a clipper type system. Any guesses on how long it teases us?

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite MRX write up

Last 30 days for perspective

Updated NWS 7 day precip map to include the last training over Eastern Valley:

I was able to see the video from MS yesterday when another person posted a link to the site in question, but after the ads I saw on that site yesterday, I won't go to anything labelled meteotube unless I have to. "Very original site". Yes. Yes it is.

I know there are still major problems down stream, but for Knoxville the creeks are quickly receding. OH and TN Valleys need every dry break we can get!

Didn't realize weathermodels had this until your question prompted me to look.

Videos of flooding in Knox county from Knox county mayor.

Sadly it looks like what is left of the convection in N AL is heading straight for portions of E TN. At least the end is in sight now on radar with no more for several days.

And now this insanity: (Not me in case you are wondering)

mudslide? at Laurel Run Park in Hawkins County:

A strange little thunderstorm has just developed in the foothills in Blount county. I just can't image how the atmosphere could possible be conducive to that even now that we're in the warm sector:

Latest HRRR shows them heading straight for Knoxville and it sure looks that way on the radar. Have the hope the atmosphere is much more stable here, but that still leaves us with some heavy rain we don't need.

I'm still pretty new to looking for tornadic storms, but it looks like it has some sort of a circulation:

And to be honest, that MCS line in Middle/ West TN looks like it is also moving more W - E now as a little meso circulation looks like it has formed.

Speaking of more rain, those convective showers blobs in Central MS/ AL look like they might be headed close to the Eastern TN Valley.

Obviously still could be some more significant rain from storms, but for anyone who might look at this thread in the future, here is a radar loop of today's rains:

Now that the end is in sight for the heaviest precip, how long does it usually take for local streams to crest and start to recede? No clue how something like that typically works.

First Creek at Broadway near Kroger as of 1:00PM: First creek in a valley bottom near 6th ave:

The train's engine is overhead of me now. Could hear it roll in 100% louder than most rainfall so far this AM.

Yeah, looking at radar, it's starting to look like basically worst case scenario with the train for the hardest hit areas in Knoxville. At least there's an end in sight after the train gets through.

Just incredible line aimed like an arrow at Knoxville.