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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough I'm a little more optimistic about some sort of pattern change after yesterday. The first fully cloudy day in a while for my area, with at least a minuscule amount of rain at the end of it. Maybe these systems are just digging a little more as the seasons change but despite how bad the ensembles have looked and continue to look, yesterday was a real change even if only a small one. In terms of the long range, I feel like the past couple of weeks were a lot like last winter in that the long range kept looking like a flip, but the long awaited Pacific pattern set up just a little too far west to get a trough here. Now looks like another of these little fronts swinging through later in the week. EPS and GEFS are at least having some members change things up after next week, since they show the ridge shifting west, but at 180+ hours could also just be random dispersion of so many members. I will say western Canada looks like it will get some snow from the big trough digging out that way. And hey maybe the EPS MSLP analysis is on to something developing a high up that way. Not sure if it is too early in the season to look at something like that, but even a little break would be nice:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    A nice shower as I headed from Harriman up toward Morgan County. I had almost forgotten what a cloudy day looked like, lol. Some storms towards Nashville, hopefully we can get a better shower this evening too!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here in Knoxville WBIR has been showing records possibly falling Thursday - the end of the 7 day forecast. I only mention WBIR because I can't remember seeing so many days on the 7 day with records listed next to the highs. We'll see if my new location in southern MoCo can help me get a quick rain shower this PM. Just south/ sw of Frozen head mts, so hopefully I can get a small upslope enhancement.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Visiting a friend in North Knoxville yesterday and heard a report of a very small brush fire. Not sure of the specific location, but would likely have been near Sharp's Ridge.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least a little relief in regards to temps for eastern areas (hopefully, though MRX in the afternoon disco basically said still above normal) with backdoor cool front Struggling convection seen from Lone Mountain in Morgan county looking south towards the Great Valley, as the front wriggled through: Some drier air was working in toward the top of the mountain, but humidity still laying in the valley as I descended.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really nice storm this PM her in Knoxville. Temp dropped from 95 to around 70 in half an hour! Even got a severe warning on it. I was on 75N when it pulsed up and the interstate turned into a river for a bit.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap was just up your way a couple of days ago. Hate that I missed that. MRX radar has been down too, which has put a cap on my usual radar watching. Been trying to buy a house this month and got summoned for jury duty for a horrible trial in Knox. Fortunately dismissed from the jury, but been a crazy month + for me. Soooooooo happy that the front made its way through E TN though. Still hot, but the dew points are primo today!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Satellite loop of today's storms:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    This was all that was left of the rotation over Clinton in the radar loop above, when it moved over Knoxville, just north of my area (in a one minute time lapse): Radar loop at the same time:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The cell in Knox now has a warning too. Decent hook on radar and each of the three cells behind the Knox county one look like they may have a little hook on radar too:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tornado warning in Hancock County and a couplet just north of Knoxville:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure what is going on, but there is a cell that has just been dumping over Bledsoe county for a while: If radar estimates are correct that's 7 inches in around 3.5 hours.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw some crazy pictures out of LaFollette from yesterday. Downloaded radar loop .gif of the event. It goes a little beyond the storm, but interesting to see that a little meso vortex? or something swirly develops over Campbell county and moves N afterwards.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm sure some of you have heard about the recycling center fire in Knoxville. It's about 2.5 miles from my house and was watching it on radar yesterday. As I was watching it though I noticed an outflow boundary from an old storm intersecting it and that seemed to fire up a storm. Not sure if that is exactly what happened, but thought I'd share to see what y'all think: The storm I'm looking for fires over the NE sections on Knoxville, just north of downtown, at 23:20 time stamp. Just prior to that you can still see the smoke plume from the fire.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the front came through yesterday, it brought what I thought was one of the best airmasses in what seems like a year. Pollen down and crystal skies before the lower clouds rolled back in and a nice breeze. One pic is of the clear air afterwards and one of the storms as they were building over Knoxville.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice little T-Storm just rolled through Harriman. Kind of surprising given how overcast it has been today. Looks like they are popping on satellite though!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Controlled burn? Must have been some interesting mid/ upper winds for that smoke to take that weird split path. Definitely noticed it over Knox this PM. https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2019/mar/18/fires-might-be-part-prescribed-burns/490784/ Not sure about the one near Cumberland County though:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    30 day precip update:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this off a blog about Iowa weather: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/03/07/FINAL-FLOOD-OUTLOOK-AN-EYE-OPENER?fbclid=IwAR3p0YRgKuuc3wOuRE7UZj1tN-Pl9C1vIJyDSPgaHAWI_mDBb7KjbbYyWxM Not exactly sure how specifically this could/ would impact our western areas and areas further down the Mississippi, but I can't image it is good news to have a big, quick melt in those midwestern areas where so much snow has fallen and then have more rain in our TN upstream areas.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition, but the GFS/ Euro showing a way that a system between the 14th and 16th could get hung up across the area. Still a ways to go, but this has been shown as a possibility on several model runs now.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Felt it in Knoxville. First one I've ever felt.
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