Holston_River_Rambler

I've been thinking about weighing in on the MJO stuff, but I'm not really sure what I make of it. This sort of mess is new to me: For what seems like most years lately, its been doing this loop d loop mess between 5 and 6. When I look at the Maritime Continent region, it basically looks how it has looked to me for most of the times I've looked at it over the past few years: Sahara satellite just because it is so fun: So what are we looking for wrt tropical convection and why? I can look at the RMMs as well as anyone and see where it is, but I'd like to start to dig deeper. I'm going to poke around in this article for a while and see if I can come up with a useful summary: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/1/waf-d-13-00102_1.xml

Heck if I know a good answer for either of the above. Sorry. That could be interesting. There has been some on again, off again talk about a potential -NAO across the boards, depending on your source based on either wave breaks in the N. Atlantic or strat. stuff from around a month ago. Could be a little bit of both. If an Greenland block kisses an Aleutian block we might get some fun as suggested in fantasy land on the 18z GFS: 500mb: The surface has fine looking Canadian high dripping down into the CONUS: One thing about this pattern is that it's blocky is some spots in the N. Hemisphere, not just the Aleutians. I have some family in Europe right now, so I have been watching there a little more than usual and they have some intersting patterns progged by the Euro and GFS: Could you imagine if we had a pattern like that in the US? Highs over top and a series of meandering lows to the south.

That -WPO has got to be one of the most persistent features I've seen on models. Don't take this as an addition to the warm vs cold debate, I'm just struck by how well that Aleutian ridge is holding on. It's not just that there is a ridge there either, but how stout it has been.

Headwaters of the Watauga River (tributary of the TN River system, so it's legit) Intersection of 105 and 184 in Avery County

Intersection of 105 and 184 in Avery County

Someone may have already mentioned this, but it looks like we get a GFS suite of AI models starting Dec 17.

How's it looking up that way @Carvers Gap? TDOT smartway shows some snow on grassy surfaces, but looked like a pretty good band was just moving through.

Snowing lightly here now

Yeah it looks like we’re saturating a little quicker than some upstream areas based on MRX radar.

Just looking at the radar out of sw Indiana, it looks like it took the atmosphere about 2.5 hours to saturate to the surface. That said there are some 30dbz+ returns in some bands over KY at this time.

Went ahead and created an obs. thread for anyone who sees something from the clipper.

Definitely quite a bit of virga as John pointed out. You can see it on the OHX radar when the precip. seems to hit a wall around Clarksville. Not sure why that looks extra grainy.

Fine looking radar upstream:

Let's see what happens.

Biggest caveat I can see now for this clipper, would be the inevitable 2 hours of virga on the front end

I couldn't tell you why I think that's unusual, except in looking at these sorts of images over the past few years, that looks odd.

That is a very unusual water vapor image IMO:

I mean, this is the sacred and rare clipper, seem like it's been since the early 2000s that I remember a no muss no fuss clipper.

I'm halfway ready to pop an obs. thread for tomorrow. I'll play it safe and wait until around 7PM and see how things look.

If you take the 15z RAP verbatim,, I call 1-2" tomorrow for Kingsport, Bristol, and JC. Heading to Boone in the AM, so hopefully I get in on the action too!

12z RGEM pops a little band of moderate snow as far south as Morristown around sunrise tomorrow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE, HOLSTON'S WEATHER EMPORIUM, Mossy Grove, TN 6:30 AM EST ****YE OLDEN CLIPPER WARNING*** * WHAT...Light to occasionally moderate snow. Snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 7 mph will produce pretty sights. * WHERE...Eastern KY, SW VA, and possibly Bristol, TN and Mountain City, TN The greatest additional accumulations will focus across the higher terrain of the High Knob and peaks on the KY and NA border above 2500 feet. * WHEN...Starting late this evening * IMPACTS...Plan on some snow covered and slippery road conditions as well as the comfortable ease of a clipper's accumulations. Hot chocolate is recommended for these trying times. SUMMARY...SW VA and eastern KY is in danger of getting hit by the first traditional clipper to hold together all the way to the southern Apps region in what seems to me like 7.5 million years. Some of the Hi Res models clip extreme NE TN too. Pretty much all the Hi Res models show the same thing, even the ever stingy NBM.

EasternLI had a pretty good post in the main forum ENSO thread last evening. It’s somewhat pro-wintry wrt the MJO handwringing of snow weeniedom across several wx forums right now. Read it or not, up to y'all, but it attempts to sort through some of the mixed signals on models later this month. I would try to summarize it, but have to get on the road early this AM.

I was thinking if this system was just 150 or so miles south this would be an eerily similar start to winter to Dec 1995.

Pretty obvious melting layer on radar this AM: