Holston_River_Rambler

But...... several GEFS and EPS members imply a potential NW trend, just maybe not enough for anyone in east TN:

Take heart John, 6z GFS gives Dirty Myrtle 4.4" !!

Yeah I just put it in Banter. That is some DGEX level stuff. True weenie dreams.

18z GFS: Just south of Pittsburg...

18z Euro for this weekend for primarily eastern areas:

18z GFS trending to back the flow for Saturday night too:

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band. Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county: I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating.

HRRR has the Bays Mt band on it, I think...

Euro backing the flow a bit on the weekend shortwave, like the RGEM and CMC

GFS teasing us again with that eastern Pac connection around hour 160

Here are the pretty colors from 12z RGEM

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Annadel, TN 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13, 2026 Including the cities of Bristol, Johnson City, Kingsport, Knoxville, Deer Lodge, Frog Level, Greeneville, Sneedville, Mosheim, Blountville and even Petros 551 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...ROAD BRINE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST JAN 17 * WHAT...BRINE TRUCKS ON THE ROAD * WHERE...ALL OF EAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SW VA AND EASTERN KY * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST JAN 17 * IMPACTS...Brine streaks on the roadways will lead to white crust on your vehicle until rain washes it away before the snow. Brine dust in the air will make breathing healthy and fun! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Call 1-800-NO-BRINE for more details. Be prepared for brined roads and brine trucks. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveway, you might dust up some brine.

I think the kicker over the lakes is just too much and will swooshle it out to sea unfortunately.

Here ye go:

happy to, which wrf though

Just a random shower thought: This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so?

Over on southernwx they’re posting the Ukie. It would not be a bad look for the late weekend system at this range.

Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas?

I prefer 8->1/2/3 for the MJO, but's just me. I think tropical forcing has the best influence when it goes through 8 and makes a full tour through 1/2/3. I don't think we've seen it do that in a looonngg time. Looks to me like it is about to blow its load in the west Pac and crash again.

The thing that is particularly frustrating about this weekend, is that there was a run (12z Friday, 1/9, I think) where all 3 globals showed a pretty similar system. If it had just been one model, meh.... but all three?

RGEM is even spinning up a low in Louisiana in its la la range. as far as I can tell it is the only model with that feature: looped to see the spin:

Speculation post: If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 11/11/25: Jan 15 2026 Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the: #speculative Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March.

The Euro is definitely pulling on some stj moisture post 220 hrs or so.

Just based on the H5 vort and relative humidity maps it might be trying for something 200 hrs or so.