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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sadly the 90s were the highlight of my winters growing up, lol.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I swear on the OP models it almost looks like the "wave riding the front" scenario, but it's just so warm we don't get any snow with said wave. Sort of presents like an extra uumph of precip coming out of the Gulf between 0 and 12z overnight. What I'm looking at is the front looks like it is through NW MS at the start of that gif, but then the precip starts to build back and hammers the plateau eastward with heavy precip after midnight. But hey, at least there might be a flurry or two tomorrow above 2500' lol. I'll go back and hide now in my "winter without winter weather" thread.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of big highs, @Carvers Gap the 18z GFS has it again:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it partly has to do with the fact that they represent very cold, very dense air and it tends to slide down the front range of the Rockies first, since they typically originate in NW Canada.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I honestly don't think I've seen a 50/50 H5 type set up like some of these runs on the GFS since I've been posting. That's not to try and hype anything up, please no one read it that way. It's a new set up for me, so hopefully something to learn successful or not.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap We may have a problem, lol: https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-ai-messages-microsoft-bing-b2282491.html Chat GPI may have gained sentience and is perhaps not happy it has been enslaved to create stupid messages. I'm considering apologizing to it soon for the above questions I asked it.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is a deep plunge from Amy Butler on SSWE and their correlation to -NAOs: TL/DR this SSWE has a higher than normal chance to create a negative NAO, but sample size is small.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS shows some of the better potential with the -NAO and crucial 50/50 pattern, while the 0z shows how it could go downhill: Not a textbook perfect look, but it gets it done for some of our area. Lower heights over the Canadian Maritimes locked in by an east based -NAO. I used the COD NEXLAB scheme below, just because it has more blue over me. 0z shows how this could all develop the other way. NAO doesn't push west enough and everything stays north of us: A lot of uncertainty on the ensembles wrt the late month. Look at the spread on the 0z EPS for the 24th of Feb: Spread really starts around the 22nd, the time frame for the NAO to first start to flex. I personally think it is a bit rushed, as things tend to be in out in model land. MJO actually made it through the warm phases on the RMM plots fairly quickly for once:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap I saw someone ask ChatGP or whatever to generate a forecast in the tone of Cheech on twitter today and it inspired me to try again: I tried asking it to post in the style of specific posters, but sadly, that didn't work out.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice 50/50 / -NAO dipole on the 6z GFS. We'll see if it can get reeled in to non fantasy land. Really like to see that 50/50 be a consistent part of the pattern
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do you think since it is the last run of work day, someone(s) at NOAA tweak something in its algorithm throughout the day just a bit (sort of a daily tune up) and that's why we sometimes get "happy hour" solutions? Just to be clear this is mostly meant as a joke., but not entirely.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Two things I'll mention about the SPV stuff this AM. 1. Most of the reputable twitter folks are just talking about the initial actual SSWE happening soon (the wind reversal). And that's fair. It's within a few days and will be the official day of the event. But if you go further out into what is typically la la model land there's a second pulse that obliterates the SPV after day 10. That's probably the event that has the most potential to eventually drip down to offer some potential for high latitude blocking. Here is the first event in a different graphic than usual just to change things up here is the second event in the usual tropical tidbits graphics: 2. Models haven't run far enough out in time yet to see the second event start to drip down: The red shows the wind reversal and it has only sunk down to around 50mb by the end of the GFS run.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’ve finally got some very wet snow mixing in too.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    You've summoned it!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Got nice rainbow pic from family up in Kingsport:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    That lightning showing up on GOES derived imagery as well:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think what is going on with regards to the weird feature on radar I posted a few posts above is that there is a little front swinging in from the SE that denotes the cold pool associated with the upper low. Could be very wrong, but that is my best guess for now.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just saw a lightning strike on radar scope in Monroe County between Tellico Plains and Madisonville: that band is swinging your way Knoxtron
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    There some really weird radar depictions this morning as well: South of a line from Huntsville, AL to about Dalton, GA it almost looks like the precip is being warped. I have no clue if that is a data issue or is there is some weirdness going on wrt the precip type/ freezing elevation and radar beam. Correlation coefficient shows some sort of a precip type line there moving N and W:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you were to tell me this satellite image was from early November and showed a Tropical storm after it made landfall, I would believe you: If you had the cold boundary for it to ride, it would have some of those higher, colder cloud tops to the NW, a nice baroclinic leaf. We have a half leaf Looks like some places on the plateau though (not me sadly) are getting close to if nothing else some fzr:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    No question now. All rain.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I would almost swear there's very wet snow falling here now mixed with rain. It's so hard to tell after dark. In these sorts of evaporative cooling situations sometimes I feel like you can get wet snow at onset of precip before it changes over to rain. i would be very interested to see what @Shocker0 and @Knoxtron have right now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    We've reached the "giant hail" classification on radar scope now. I really don't think there is any way there is any sort of hail let alone giant hail. I think the radar just scans horizontally and vertically and makes a "best guess" for precip type. There must just be some goosefeathers and graupnel falling just above the surface:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It would be so cool to have a drone that could go up about 2000' in that area right now.
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