Holston_River_Rambler

We need a mountain wave event with the ice too, that'll help.

for posterity (or at least until imgur deletes them) FRAM estimate:

If it keeps to its schedule from last night, Euro AIFS should start up around 12:15.

Every time I try to speculate, lol. disregard the above.

It ran out of color contours lol.

Thank you for asking him about that.

That's where I'm at as far as hope goes now. The 6z AIFS is a much more common winter storm scenario than something like the 1988 Jan southern slider.

Not sure. My (probably wrong) running hypothesis is that it reviews thousands of scenarios at initialization and then runs with a "given a certain set up "X," "Y" will then happen 90% of the time." Lower resolution helps this approach.

Supposedly the Euro AI has been trained on 80 years of ERA 5 data

At least the WPC isn't entirely leaning into the AIFS

AIFS

Euro does, but not the Euro AIFS

Here are the 6z EPS members for your viewing pleasure:

Here's a comparison on weatherbells graphics of the 6z Euro and 0z Euro: Note the shortwave the higher res Euro picks up diving in through the Dakotas. That would work to keep some suppression in play

6z Euro: Ticked north a bit: 6z: 0z:

Random 3am wishcast thoughts, that I'm not rolling out of bed on a Monday AM to type at 3am: 1. Does the relative coarseness or smoothness of the resolution of the higher res OP Euro vs Euro AIFS impact how it resolves the the Baja low? Example: 2. Although once the Euro AIFS locked in for the past weekend system it ticked NW, this is a different set up. The AIFS began to resolve the specific details in the shorter ranges and the room to wiggle there was NW with a s/w digging more. In this scenario does the cold high perhaps verifying stouter closer to go time do the opposite and work against the low wanting to cut poleward? 3. And finally, here's some real weenie hopium: Does the fact that the Euro AIFS is trained on lots of old data means it is more likely to see more common scenarios, like the Miller A/B hybrid it depicts at 6z, than a once in every 50 years southern slider like Jan 1988? Not gonna lie, I'm pretty set on a Miller A/B hybrid now (pretty much based on the Euro AIFS still trending more amped and north) with a low cutting up through the East TN Valley and hoping for less ice in that situation. I will take a cold rain over ice 100% of the time.

Normal EPS MSLPs

FWIW here are the Euro AIFS ensemble member mslps at hour 144:

Euro AIFS Ensemble is pretty resolved to kick out the Baja low, but seems to have some divergent members once it gets inland:

hour 141 on the normal Euro:

It also makes me glad my father on law bought us a generator.

Regular old Euro is kicking the Baja low out at 18z too.

Looks like a smidge more suppression than 12z, but still some surface lp worming its way into the eastern valley.

Oddball collection of images on weatherbell, but it looks like the AIFS is kicking the baja low out.