Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,107

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    This little upper level disturbance seems to be over performing in the west Knoxville area. Just drove into town and it was pouring.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am so sorry @PowellVolz
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    There was a person about 2 miles SE of me trying to burn a big pile of brush Thursday and there's another guy trying to clear several acres to my NW who has ongoing smoldering fires. There's probably a hundred yards between those fires and the woods, but TBH there is a non 0 chance that either could hop to the woods and if that happens I'm screwed. At least the guy with the several acres is trying to control his brushpiles, but the guy to my SE just started burning his brush Thursday. I still see folks throwing cigarettes out the window in highway 62 between Oliver Springs and Wartburg. I guess its the typical "well my house isn't on fire so it doesn't concern me" crowd. We had a pretty good rain for like 5 minutes yesterday evening, I could even hear it in the house. What in the world happened to this El-Nino pattern early this fall? Up through maybe mid August it seemed like we were going to to have a pretty wet fall. There were some days it just rained and rained and then *poof* it evaporated. Some of the driest fall records we are breaking in some locations go back to the late 1800s. GFS for the qpf win this morning: Ensembles see at least and inch to be likely by next week, but we'll see if that actually pans out.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    First Creek in Knoxville Pepperidge Farm remembers:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    This front has been as disappointing as TN's performance vs Mizzou. But at least in terms of rain, I think it's coming slowly but surely. I wish we could get out of it quicker, but I think only a tropical system could do that. A lot of underperforming on global wrt to qpf lately. Drove from just south of Wartburg, to Knoxville, to Kingsport today and man the smoke was bad between let's say exit 4 and exit 15 on I-81. Random new wildfire on the mts above Oliver Springs too. 18z Euro still seems optimistic:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’d have to go back and look but I think it was.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    First clown map of the year!!! woot woot:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Both the EPS and GEFS also put us under the right entrance region of a jet, which would be nice for the drought if it pans out. GEFS: EPS:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    If nothing else it also looks like rain may start to fall more regularly soon!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I got a pic of the fire near Rocky Top from the Clinch River this afternoon: After poking around on Twitter, I tried to get a picture of the aurora some people were getting (potentially the faint red in the lower right):
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS and GEFS are at least starting to show a general 1 -2 inches over the whole TN Valley
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    This would be even more awesomerer (6z GFS out to 384)
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’m about ready to start tracking a good rain like I do snow lol. Time to start looking at EPS members for fantasy rainstorms.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it almost looks about as good as some of the looks we've gotten in some recent Januarys, lol Storm is still there at 18z, but more westerly track Here is the 12z gif @Carvers Gap
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll toss this over here from Banter at the request of Carver. I do think there is another tropical system incoming, I just hope it trends to dump some rain on us! That qualifies as a Preserved for Posterity run of the GFS.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    This would be a fun evolution to watch:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really think the tropics are messing with the pattern progression over N. America this fall. Once again we have a hurricane in the Atlantic locking a ridge over us as a trough tries to move in. Didn't someone in the main El Nino thread for the whole forum post that this has been one of the busiest tropical Atlantic seasons on record for an El Nino?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does the "snow before Halloween" rule apply only to La Nina winters?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice rainbow sunset yesterday!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of the 12z CMC, that was a wild end @Carvers Gap Some tropical system merging with a mid latitude trough and cut off Baja low mess: That looks like a 3500' elevation and up snow pattern evolution. Probably won't work out but would be wild.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Too bantery?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Storm rolling off the plateau yesterday PM:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    This may just be anecdotal, but I feel like the atmosphere over East TN has just been stagnant lately. Models were not enthused yesterday AM about rain making it off the plateau and as far as I could tell, the line of storm pushed, at least in part, all the way to the NC border. This AM too, showers and storms look pretty healthy in middle TN and KY. Will those make it into the valley? Even if they don't I think things are starting to move around at the mid and upper levels again. Probably helps that we have weak sauce TCs and subtropical systems working on the subtropical ridge over head now instead of Cat 3 and 4 hurricanes bullying it.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think these tropical and psuedo-tropical systems off the SE coast have been messing up the pattern progression. There seem to have been troughs that want to swing through, but the tropics have been stopping things up. I will 100% take what the 12z GFS is trying to sell me in long range. The GFS seemed to catch onto these surface highs building in from the Northeast a few weeks ago, maybe once the pesky lower heights off the SE coast clear out we can get some pattern progression, for better or for worse. I like blocky patterns in winter, but not stagnant patterns, lol.
×
×
  • Create New...