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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    And that post was not a response to yours Matthew, I was mostly done typing it out when you posted.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency: Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction. That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. Could it jump back the other way? Sure. Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've wondered that too the past couple of days.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had a dream about model runs last night. Probably need a break lol.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    And look, it could all be for nought, but I don't think we've seen the final result quite yet The shortwave has a ways to go: and as you can see from my earlier post, models have struggled with how it arrives in the US.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    My current take: The players: The setting: the game: All in motion on the Euro Comparison: Euro trend: Maybe all this amounts to is a headache for me in making all this, but I am little more optimistic than I was this time last night.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found the 500mb panels on pivotal and there is def less phasing between the big northern stream shortwave and the Baja low. Certainly not like the mess that started this last night at 18z. cannot make a gif right now
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course pretty much all the panels but the H5 ones are populating on weatherbell lol
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don’t think that seems a great run at first glance but I do think there was a nod towards the GFS wrt having the shortwaves less in sync.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is a smidge south with the lp nosing into TN from the gulf vs 12z at hour 87z.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I prefer this one
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm having to use imgur for gifs instead of giphy now because of resolution problems, so you may have to refresh the page to make the gif go in motion after you see it the first time.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There are still some height rises in front, but nothing like rises you'd get with a full triple phase. Could be one to something or ON something.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    With regards to the GFS, it looks to me like the shortwave that was phasing just kicked out in front of it so quick, it helps to suppress heights to the east There is still a small shortwave diving down through Oregon and CA that phase with the Baja low, but the larger piece stays separate.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty sure I just had a sleet/ rain mix @John1122 I think it was one of those onset mix precip type deals that changes to rain.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the AIFS for interested parties.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    It runs the 850 low from Dallas to Cleveland
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it's got a surface low over the foothills of SE TN at hour 99
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The two shortwaves def. look less in sync than previous runs, but we'll see what that amounts to down the road.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment, shortwave differences between 12z and ------------------------------------------------------------------------> 6z
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    play by play as the Euro comes in
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Watching the PBP on southernwx and nothing but positive changes so far. Not sure how far it can go, but to tired to do a pbp here. I'll post gifs when the Euro gets far enough out.
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