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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I had to pick a model I liked best right now for MBY, it would be the RGEM. Sleet to a bit of freezing rain, to plain old rain:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro, nice and slow: seems to hold on to the cold air a bit longer than it did at 0z
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    @40/70 Benchmark Split showing up on the 6z GFS:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Please note, if you have clicked on a time stamp under my avatar and are seeing this message, you have clicked into the long range thread. For .45" of ice accretion, press 1 To view the NBM total snowfall from two days ago, please press 2 For severe weather please press 0 To view today's 0z Euro's snow for next weekend (24 hour increment), continue scrolling and Mr. Kuchera will be with you shortly TBH it would be peak East TN to get a good snow next weekend after all the drama of this weekend's mess. I have only ONCE in my 42 years of East TN life, ever seen a storm verify from 4-5 days out except 1993. I think we do better when messaging is more like: "after the last miss, we aren't going to worry to much about this one."
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Have to admit I'm surprised the GFS went to not even the triple phase at 6z, but a quadruple phase. If the Euro hadn't wavered on that, I would be less surprised. And yeah, I get it that the Euro's surface depiction hasn't wavered much, but I'm talking about the phasing shortwaves. It's not totally clean, but it gets the job done.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am so sorry man.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heck if I know, lol. I pay for these silly subscriptions so might as well use 'em for something and try to learn something new each year. As much a pay sites would like us to think that a subscription to get the highlights of the WeatherAIgoobldygookGPT JMG Buttersworth snow ratio meteogram charts will automatically = snow, it doesn't. Stakes are high on this one for me. This will probably be my biggest model rug pull, so might as well follow it when I can, or at least until the ice turns off my power, lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    And that post was not a response to yours Matthew, I was mostly done typing it out when you posted.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency: Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction. That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. Could it jump back the other way? Sure. Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've wondered that too the past couple of days.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had a dream about model runs last night. Probably need a break lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    And look, it could all be for nought, but I don't think we've seen the final result quite yet The shortwave has a ways to go: and as you can see from my earlier post, models have struggled with how it arrives in the US.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    My current take: The players: The setting: the game: All in motion on the Euro Comparison: Euro trend: Maybe all this amounts to is a headache for me in making all this, but I am little more optimistic than I was this time last night.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found the 500mb panels on pivotal and there is def less phasing between the big northern stream shortwave and the Baja low. Certainly not like the mess that started this last night at 18z. cannot make a gif right now
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course pretty much all the panels but the H5 ones are populating on weatherbell lol
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don’t think that seems a great run at first glance but I do think there was a nod towards the GFS wrt having the shortwaves less in sync.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is a smidge south with the lp nosing into TN from the gulf vs 12z at hour 87z.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I prefer this one
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm having to use imgur for gifs instead of giphy now because of resolution problems, so you may have to refresh the page to make the gif go in motion after you see it the first time.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    There are still some height rises in front, but nothing like rises you'd get with a full triple phase. Could be one to something or ON something.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    With regards to the GFS, it looks to me like the shortwave that was phasing just kicked out in front of it so quick, it helps to suppress heights to the east There is still a small shortwave diving down through Oregon and CA that phase with the Baja low, but the larger piece stays separate.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty sure I just had a sleet/ rain mix @John1122 I think it was one of those onset mix precip type deals that changes to rain.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the AIFS for interested parties.
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