Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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I don't know which is better on the HRRR, the Kuchera or 10:1 lol.
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Maybe Powell will ride in like Gandalf at Helm's Deep to usher in the 18z runs?
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One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX: 5 run trend: ARW core NMB core: They are also too far north with the mixing line:
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Past 3 EPS means:
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Welp, still over an hour for the SREF, so might as well look at the EPS: 10th through 90th percentile snowfall (this is NOT an increasing Mean)
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Local news (WBIR and WATE haven't had a chance to see WVLT yet) this AM seem to be leaning into the more snow than not, but I think they have the problem of the MRX graphics totals cut in southern and eastern areas of east TN. Also a lot of times the in house models they show on TV are Hi res CAMs that show some of the mixing potential.
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NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm.
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Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol.
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WPC probabilities as of 21z: at least 2": at least 4" at least 6"
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RGEM has only a small amount of sleet near the GA border and has upped .qpf a small amount.
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Hey I almost nailed the WPC disco release time lol. Nice that they want to keep mention of mixing around and south of I 20
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What time will get an AFD? Will this be one of those after 4 days? I’m goin for 3:34 PM unless they’re waiting on a WPC product like Jeff mentioned.
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Euro handles a vort differently from the GFS and this vort squishes the system a bit Euro -> GFS
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3km: 12km:
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Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey.
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NAM is trying to bring in some mixing issues I 40 south
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SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon.
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Getting some pretty good light snow here now, slowly getting heavier.
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The Bays mt band kind of reoriented this AM as the some colder air was pushed Ne and SW against the higher mts: see how the clear air is sort of stretching south of Knoxville and north of Bristol? so you briefly get the band aimed at Kingsport
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6z Euro looks similar to 0z to me, but with a bit a smidge more .qpf over the ever important (to me) Cumberland plateau and eastern TN areas: 6z -> 0z pay no mind to that slight decrease over western TN.
