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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    excellent, it has started!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    That'd be nice! @BuCoVaWx I'd day you are one of the best placed of all of us in the eastern forum areas.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    met on southwernwx is saying the euro and euro aifs are delayed...
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thankee
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let is know what they say (or as much as you can), if you are allowed @Tucker1027
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hurt myself today, to see if I still feel. I focus on the Euro, the only thing that's real What has snow become my dearest friends? Everything that I love goes away in the end
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but it looks to me like the HP was a little stronger, (if a little north) at 0z:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking at a gif jacksonhendrix posted on southernwx, it makes me wonder if this could even somehow trend to a plain old Miller A if the orientation of the trough continues to change, or even a bigger cutter? If that trough digs more and ends up a bit more neutral near the Mississippi at verification time, I guess a miller A that rides up the coastal plain is possible, but I would rate it a low possibility at this time.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I 100% could be wrong, but I thought someone in NWS told it which ones to favor in its average?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone on southernwx mentioned Dec 5 2002 as a potential analog: There are some differences, but I'm not sure its totally off the table
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    How does the NBM still show this? (Note this is not a response to what tnweathernut posted)
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's part of this big upper low near Kamchatka right now. That's how far off it still is: It gets spun off and has to ride over the arctic ridge and down into the desert southwest: Watch close above on the Euro and you can see it take the ride
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm going to see if I can find it on satellite.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think they're just saying the recent northern trend may be one, or maybe not. The northern stream vort that's causing all this heartache is strung out north or the arctic circle now.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I need to go back and see exactly what he thought in the videos. I got the impression from others posts he was just riding the CMC and a typical climo NW trend and got lucky. I don't typically watch that sort of stuff because I would rather gouge out my own eyes.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    AIFS ticked north at 6z:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still eventually rains to WVA, but to my eyes it was a tick south and colder. I wonder if there is a path to the northern stream wave dropping so far west of BC Canada than we end up with enough separation?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are your run to run changes at 500mb: There is more separation:, but the northern shortwave still manages to scoop the Baja energy out and semi phase?
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO there are definitely some differences with the shortwaves between 0z and 6z: Will it lead to a different result? We'll see.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw someone on southernwx mention the WPC gives us some hope. So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent. *Have a weather model emotional gambling problem? Call 1-800-HATE-ME1
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like there is an aircraft doing dropsondes right now, didn't take off until 22z
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS make of it what ye will: run. to run snow change:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lawd that was &^%$&*(*)*)* depressing.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the CMC didn't get the full phase:
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