Holston_River_Rambler

A new way to fail.

EPS mean has officially gone off the charts:

Will the MJO come in off the RMM charts in phase 8 today? It has been trending a little bit closer on the Euro Ensembles mean each day.

Happy hour GFS gives some love to extreme NE TN, SWVA, and parts of the plateau: This is for the system this Sunday.

We have contact!:

Well another day another dollar. Time to see how many people survived the overnight runs in the MA forum.

Here's an interesting gif with two wundergound stations. One is near me in Morgan County (Plateau), the other is near Rockwood in Roane county (Valley). the plateau location is actually east of the valley location, but seemed to have higher winds earlier. Storms rolled through between 2 and 3ish, it does look like the higher plateau elevations (even only the 800' between these two locations) made a big difference wrt the timing of the wind field. Just eyeballing a location in Haywood county, it looks a lot more like the plateau graph, but with a second substantial uptick:

By the time I got home around 5 the winds had already hit the valley, but there were some hellacious gusts around 7 or so up on the plateau (approx 1300' for MBY) and then it started to slowly wind down.

That's interesting (obviously not good for y'all). I wonder if ground friction held the winds back at our lower elevations? I wasn't up on the plateau yesterday afternoon so I can't say what we had up here.

So did the line of storms outrun the high wind field? TBH, if that is the case, I'm glad they did and couldn't tap into it. Like everyone else said above the wind field seemed to lag a couple of hours behind the storms and the strongest winds didn't really hit here until just after sunset. Everything has died off now though and it is chilly. We've reached the point where 41 feels downright cold.

We’ve had some pretty wild gusts up here in Morgan County after dark, but so far seem to have dodged the worst of it.

@Greyhound Those pinwheels are from storm relative velocity under the super resolution category. The OHX one doesn't look quite as "pinwheely" now, but the the Columbus MS radar does: Sorry to use a different sort of image, but I found that the "classic" storm relative velocity looks more like the images on the website I linked above. Pinwheels aside, I just thought it was pretty incredible to be able to see winds changing with height on plain old radar. Low level moisture is moving SSE --> NNW (green arrow) and then the precip associated with the warm front (I think?) is moving SW --> NE (pink arrow)

Overnight CMC was interesting. Euro wasn't too far off. CMC: Euro: CMC absolutely crushes the MA, Le Conte gets 33 inches lol. Pretty good ensemble support for something big somewhere in the east, as others have said: And yes snowmaker it probably is too late and it will probably be cold and dry. Ideally we would get some trees good and loose today so that when their upper branches with buds freeze later this month and we get some good winds, then they'll blow over.

Most of you severe enthusiasts are probably aware of this, but something new to me were "radar pinwheels" https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2008/07/radar-pinwheels-and-wind-shear.html

High wind event likely across the TN Valley. Possibility of straight line winds associated with thunderstorms and tornados. Wind shear visible on OHX radar:

I'll create a thread for it. You can actually see the wind shear on the OHX radar this morning. Not something I think I've ever seen before in out area. Not saying that's never happened, just I haven't noticed it.

Same on the plateau and central eastern great valley around Knoxville

Not a terrible MSLP N hemisphere look at hr 174 on the EPS: Some risk of Miller A/B hybrid, but better than anything so far this winter, lol

I'm trying to post and EPS gif, but only have phone bandwidth at this time. The frame around hour 192 is causing the "brooklyn" met that posts sometimes in the MA forum, to post it with a variety of swears (in a good way), on multiple forums, lol.

Please don't read anything more into this post than what I say: Just never thought I'd see that kind of amplitude in phase 8. GEFS agrees: I've always thought models' initial conditions impact what bizarro fantasy solutions they show, so will be interested to see what wild things they show by about March 10. This hobby is always more interesting to me when there are at least fantasy storms on OP runs, whether they happen or not, or are even realistic, I just enjoy watching.

My ground is drying out though. I'm no longer the owner of a swamp. Gotta get that qpf back up lol.

Euro looked interesting at day 10, lol:

Euro control got on board the fantasy storm train overnight:

12z fantasy storm ftw: