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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the GFS took the CMCs beer, chugged it, and grabbed another.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd gladly sacrifice any of the nearer stuff we've been looking at for that, but AI Euro says too much disconnect between the northern and southern jets and sadly that fits the antecedent pattern GFS pulls the eastern Pac critter into the flow for that run: Euro AI has that quasi tropical critter get absorbed into a larger eastern Pac upper low:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    At 150 hours the GFS had blessed us with another temptation.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rediscovered a neat site when going through our links to see if I could find the site that shows how aircraft observations differed from model initialization conditions. I'm going to keep looking for that, but in the meantime, check the meridional flow into AK: (this is a precipitable water layer) Link: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100&center=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2&timespan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true A little bit of a learning curve to use, but it has a lot of views of the earth and atmosphere.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    So is the consensus now that the Euro AI is the way to go for medium range (days 4-7 or so)? I like that is has a lower resolution like the NAVGEM, so it concentrates more on the general pattern than trying to get fancy with mesoscale features.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason my CAD plateau gif isn't working, so I will post a static image here Now, Tellico ninja'd me with that explanation of CAD, so to be clear this is not a normal CAD set up as Tellico describes. The above is some weird microclimate mess that may or may not play out.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    For tonight, do we really buy the models showing snow at onset for some lower elevations and continuing throughout? This is basically a front swinging through with a low level jet nosing into the TN Valley, right? I just can't think of a time when this kind of a set up produced snow recently for any lower elevations. Interestingly the 3km NAM has CAD for eastern escarpment of the plateau: If someone rides just the right side of whatever boundary there is, they cold get some good rates though.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just to be clear I think these two recon flights are different from the previous ones.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical tidbits has 2 over the Pac right now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like they are running two, one tomorrow afternoon / evening (16 20:30 -17 0230z) and one early morning of Saturday (17 830 - . 1430z). But I have no idea if I'm reading that flight plan correctly and can't tell whether they're flying out over the Atlantic or up toward where the vort. is, or both.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now. Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort??
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Managed to get a few pics of the band as I drove home: I 81 southbound near mm 56 Looking SW from intersection of Wilcox Dr and John B Dennis: I don't think this was an optimal time, but there was some precip in the area the band sets up. Also @Carvers Gap: I may have brought some washing machine bad luck back to Morgan County, lol:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bays mt. band looks to be starting up a bit now, I will try to drive through it heading back to MoCo.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Desperation has set in. 100 second time lapse aimed generally upwind of the Bays Mt band:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Noticed that and thought about you when I was driving up 81 this AM. That was really the only pace I noticed anything appreciable from Morgan county to Kingsport. Bays Mt band is no bueno this AM, but I did get some nice pics of Chimney Top:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    2017 probably a bit bigger and longer duration, but I see some similarities
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Southernwx was talking some comparisons between this Sunday and Dec 2017, anyone else see that? The radar looks reasonable: The system looks to have dug SW a bit more though:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gfs doing the old double down happy hour for Sunday.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It doesn’t go out far enough to give anyone a NAMing (not talking about the more mid range system John is) but it does pop a low in the west central gulf
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