Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,195

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's GFS time. Let's see what it offers up at 18z and should have a new Euro AIFS soon after.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thar she blows: As far as I can tell that is the system that gets kind of split in two and becomes the aforementioned Baja low.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    100 % agree with this
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It seems like we are still in the wibble-wobble phase of the Euro AI. In like 36 hours or so, if it follows what it did with this last system, it'll be pretty well locked in.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was kind of surprised that the Euro AIFS jumped so far north at 12z. It booted the Baja low low fully out for the 25th system. Plain old Euro OP does it too. A lot rests on what happens to that Baja low. Previous runs had it waiting to kick out for the 28-9th system on the Euro AIFS.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    While waiting to see what the GFS poops out at 12z, I just noticed the 6z AIFS has a Lo RES triple phaser for the 28th:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro AIFS ensemble's control was a real weenie run at 6z: That said, I'm not sure how the AIFS ensemble is doing. I've seen people say it counts sleet as snow, and it overdoes the sorts of maps above.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I could certainly be wrong, but 120 - 150hours out is when the AIFS is getting dialed in, just a bit too progressive with its lower resolution.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    After this last system, I think a "split the difference approach" to the 6z Euro AIFS and 6z GFS is probably reasonable for 1/24-5. Not a bad look for the northern 2/3rds of TN.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    May have to issue a virga warning soon:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the general idea of the patter even 200 hours out the Euro AI has been pretty darn good: There is a little bit of bouncing around with the northern stream for a few runs, but damn... I have noticed it has had a little bit of a progressive bias (note the NW trend on this weekend) from 120 hours out: But for basic idea of the pattern, it is looking sharp right now.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    If we account for elevation of OHX, looks like freezing level is probably around 2500ish feet? Not really sure how to precisely use teh tool below though.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    This system tonight is hauling booty. I'm guessing I have two hours before precip. starts now.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those recon flights for today is scoping out the Gulf
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    hot dawg, the 18z Euro still has it
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly timing looks ideal for TRI. 5-8am?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    That’s where we’re at with tonight lol. HRRR, NAMs, ol RUFUS, and RAP still maintain snow above 2500 feet and for TRI and points NE. @Jed33sadly both you and I are borderline. @Carvers Gap looks like around midnight for me and after 3 am for yall. Look up close at the HRRR 3km on weatherbell. It looks like it has the Eastman bubble over Long Island lol.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    NE TN and SWVA might just get a couple of hours of radiational cooling this PM.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strange, spectral (something related to lenticular?) clouds over Morgan and Roane counties: Apparently the mother ship was about to land on LeConte around noon:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fortunately looks like just a one off overloading issue.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let me try that gif trend again, I'm having gif trouble today, may need to make an appointment for that
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I went out to get lunch and I see the Euro just full sent it too. There was a time not so long ago though, that CMC, Euro, and GFS all liked this weekend. What has pushed the boundary so far south on today's 12z runs? Trend on the Euro:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    well, not for Chatt, sorry
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    ideal:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good thing about this is that if anything like what the GFS shows happens, it looks like it will have more southern stream involvement instead of the vort. whisps from the north pole where we have to send hurricane hunters to dropsonde the Pac and Atlantic to set the atmospheric goalposts for the vort to ride.
×
×
  • Create New...