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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro AIFS has started 6:13 EST
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Normal Euro has started on Pivotal:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good news is, after tonight we will all know exactly when the Euro AIFS starts for future runs.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    While we eagerly await our fate at machine learning's silicone hands, the GEFS looks torn on the Baja low:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I push a special code into Tropical tidbits do you think I can make the Euro AIFS come out faster?? up, up, down, down, x,y,x,y, then pause and select at the same time.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seems like it is usually finished when the GFS is, but I'm not sure what time it starts to percolate out.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    FWIW AI GFS kicked out the Baja low at 12z and 18z.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seems like when these huge highs are shown, 1042-1046mb is about all they usually end up.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Poor TX, parts of it would have freezing rain for decades on that GFS run
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not kicking the Baja low out like the Euro and Euro AI, but still gets some moisture our way.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Baja not kicked out fully, but it is definitely slinging moisture at the HP
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's GFS time. Let's see what it offers up at 18z and should have a new Euro AIFS soon after.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thar she blows: As far as I can tell that is the system that gets kind of split in two and becomes the aforementioned Baja low.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    100 % agree with this
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It seems like we are still in the wibble-wobble phase of the Euro AI. In like 36 hours or so, if it follows what it did with this last system, it'll be pretty well locked in.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was kind of surprised that the Euro AIFS jumped so far north at 12z. It booted the Baja low low fully out for the 25th system. Plain old Euro OP does it too. A lot rests on what happens to that Baja low. Previous runs had it waiting to kick out for the 28-9th system on the Euro AIFS.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    While waiting to see what the GFS poops out at 12z, I just noticed the 6z AIFS has a Lo RES triple phaser for the 28th:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro AIFS ensemble's control was a real weenie run at 6z: That said, I'm not sure how the AIFS ensemble is doing. I've seen people say it counts sleet as snow, and it overdoes the sorts of maps above.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I could certainly be wrong, but 120 - 150hours out is when the AIFS is getting dialed in, just a bit too progressive with its lower resolution.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    After this last system, I think a "split the difference approach" to the 6z Euro AIFS and 6z GFS is probably reasonable for 1/24-5. Not a bad look for the northern 2/3rds of TN.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    May have to issue a virga warning soon:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    For the general idea of the patter even 200 hours out the Euro AI has been pretty darn good: There is a little bit of bouncing around with the northern stream for a few runs, but damn... I have noticed it has had a little bit of a progressive bias (note the NW trend on this weekend) from 120 hours out: But for basic idea of the pattern, it is looking sharp right now.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    If we account for elevation of OHX, looks like freezing level is probably around 2500ish feet? Not really sure how to precisely use teh tool below though.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    This system tonight is hauling booty. I'm guessing I have two hours before precip. starts now.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those recon flights for today is scoping out the Gulf
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