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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing we do have working for us this time is ENSO. Certainly not saying a SSW couldn't mess up any pattern, but hopefully now that Nino is flexing we can keep the SPV stressed.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm definitely with Carver's for waiting until Friday to decide. I was actually thinking about Sam's Gap this AM. It's interstate all the way, but just a bit too far for your time. GFS gives it a few inches Saturday afternoon and it puts you up to almost 4000 feet. If you decided to go that way, you could just about do a loop in the same return time and come back through Asheville and see how things looked on the Foothills parkway near Cosby.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    GOES derived lightning strikes, looks like a nice one over Spence Field and Thunderhead mt. I guess that seals the deal for late this week/ weekend?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Silas Lang what is your time limit on the drive?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Merry Christmas all, Here is the 3D Vortex I mentioned from yesterday: Not much else to add but this 3D gif present.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    That upper low will be another good NAMing for someone over the next few days
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Shout out to @stadiumwave who posted this in the main forum El Nino thread. I hadn't even thought to check the mean yet. 6z GEFS mean has a split too: Also question for stadiumwave if you read this, which gif host do you sue to get the higher resolution gifs?
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    First full SPV split I've seen in the long range this season on the 0z GFS Sadly the 6z wasn't as enthusiastic, but it is still way out there. GFS was trying to get to the above a couple times yesterday, but didn't quite make it. Here is the same evolution at 50 mb: Should be a fun 3D vortex tomorrow AM. It only runs the previous days 0z data to make that visual, so we won't have tonight's 0z for the 3D images until tomorrow.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight euro had John’s New Years storm.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I like it when the GEFS from College of Dupage has creamsicle on some of the members for our area. Some people calls it orange, I calls it creamsicle.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    7 flurries here. Also saw some sandhill cranes migrating on these winds.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    A lightning strike popped just north of Louisville KY with a squall. I was kind of hoping that the clearing might enhance lapse rates for places that see snow.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty good radar returns over eastern KY this AM well ahead of the shortwave rotating through this evening and overnight. Looks like folks above 2500 feet could already be seeing some snow.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro OP at 240 looks like a better pattern evolving:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of an aside, but something I noticed beyond the usual SPV talk, is what's modeled to happen over Greenland at 50mb: temps and anomalies: heights: With some of the talk about potential NAO blocking in January, this is something to watch to see if it can percolate down to atmo. levels where it matters more for us. Even the GEFS mean is pretty enthusiastic: The Euro isn't quite as enthused: Obviously this is still way out there, but something to think about down the road.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    End of the RGEM looked nice for upslope Monday but it is the end of a hi res run.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I've been wondering, and it might not have much bearing on the upcoming pattern, is how will this jet extension behave when it hits the convection at the dateline and eastward? How will that convection modulate it and what do I mean by that? We've seen these jet extensions that aim at the west coast in the past and they usually roast us, but I'll be interested to see what happens when that extension actually gets to the more convectively active part of the Pacific. The whole point of watching all this tropical convection all the time, when there isn't anything more immediate to analyze, is to see how it impacts the Pac jet. I think one of the reasons we like Ninos for blocking is that these jet extensions, as long as they're not Godzilla strength, add Momentum to atmosphere in the higher latitudes and thats why they can have more blocking and SPV disruptions. Does the ongoing convection strengthen it? Weaken it? Redirect it a bit? How exactly will the convection look when the jet extension happens? The much feared jet extension is still 3 days away as far as I can tell. The ongoing dateline convection has already changed some over the past couple of days, but it seems to me that the tropics along and east of the dateline still look much more active than when we've had these jet extensions and accelerations over the past Ninas. IDK, maybe just a bunch of ramblings after lunch, but something to think about since there's not much else going on. PS: After the 12z GFS, the "Is this a deviation from the inevitable Torchmas, or is it another head fake?" debate in some of the more... I don't know...fussy subforums, should be fun over the next few days for those of you (like me) who like to watch those kinds of things.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I can't wait to see if the NAM spits out some wild solutions with this weekends storm. The way it handles convection, it may have a tropical system in the Gulf or Atlantic at some point with like a 950mb pressure, lol.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just poking around on the satellite for tropical convection and noticed how much moisture this upcoming system has to work with. I've seen these moisture trains back into the Pacific, but never one like this in the Gulf to help pump up the precip:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually Pivotal has it too:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the soundings from the 18z GFS show snow at the mountain tops. The ever-reliable for showing the most snow College of Dupage site even has it on their maps: the time stamp for that is 09z Monday
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now: Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada. All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so. Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US: It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching: It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    On MRX radar's correlation coefficient it looks like snow levels are falling pretty quickly.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm already down to about 40 at just under 1300 feet on the Cumberland plateau, hopefully it won't be too much longer for y'all.
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