Holston_River_Rambler

Maybe Powell will ride in like Gandalf at Helm's Deep to usher in the 18z runs?

One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX: 5 run trend: ARW core NMB core: They are also too far north with the mixing line:

Past 3 EPS means:

Welp, still over an hour for the SREF, so might as well look at the EPS: 10th through 90th percentile snowfall (this is NOT an increasing Mean)

Local news (WBIR and WATE haven't had a chance to see WVLT yet) this AM seem to be leaning into the more snow than not, but I think they have the problem of the MRX graphics totals cut in southern and eastern areas of east TN. Also a lot of times the in house models they show on TV are Hi res CAMs that show some of the mixing potential.

NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm.

Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol.

WPC probabilities as of 21z: at least 2": at least 4" at least 6"

RGEM has only a small amount of sleet near the GA border and has upped .qpf a small amount.

Hey I almost nailed the WPC disco release time lol. Nice that they want to keep mention of mixing around and south of I 20

What time will get an AFD? Will this be one of those after 4 days? I’m goin for 3:34 PM unless they’re waiting on a WPC product like Jeff mentioned.

Euro handles a vort differently from the GFS and this vort squishes the system a bit Euro -> GFS

3km: 12km:

Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey.

NAM is trying to bring in some mixing issues I 40 south

SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon.

Getting some pretty good light snow here now, slowly getting heavier.

The Bays mt band kind of reoriented this AM as the some colder air was pushed Ne and SW against the higher mts: see how the clear air is sort of stretching south of Knoxville and north of Bristol? so you briefly get the band aimed at Kingsport

6z Euro looks similar to 0z to me, but with a bit a smidge more .qpf over the ever important (to me) Cumberland plateau and eastern TN areas: 6z -> 0z pay no mind to that slight decrease over western TN.

Man I'm glad things started to trend back north, I checked the models occasionally when I woke up overnight and just before I went to sleep and saw those south ticks. I was about ready to make up some cope with the old RAOB network weenie rule and claim the main shortwave had been soundable, but had just dropped south of the network. Or that the N. Hemisphere satellite info always looks kind of janky and so models were having trouble resolving the northern shortwave. Or try to find the Alex Boreham data that shows RAOB data vs. models. But instead I'll just show this nice tropical connection:

18z EPS members and slps: