Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Moon halo in effect: -
In upper East TN, maybe areas SE of highway 321 would be a good way to look at it? Maybe for southern east TN areas SE of highway 411 from Newport to Old Fort areas?
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I would think they mean areas right up against the higher mts, Tellico Plains, Townsend, Newport, Cosby, Erwin and maybe even Bat Harbor.
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Hot Springs, Arkansas:
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Day cloud phase below Nice Gulf and Pacific moisture
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I see the waxing moon rising over East Tennessee. Maybe we can have the old “Halo around the moon” sign tonight!
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Yeah if you are on X check out the NWS Norman posts. https://x.com/nwsnorman/status/1877394302462210560?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g
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Anyone have any thoughts on why the NAM is doing this? I guess I'm asking what process does it see that shoots the 850 winds and WAA so far north? Superficially (i.e me remembering all the runs I've looked at in the past few hours) nothing seems even close to it. Is it a convection issue? Is it how its handling a shortwave? I'm not saying its wrong, but I'd like to know what it is seeing.
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FV3 FWIW coming in with very little ice
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I liked <sarcasm> this sounding from the NAM: 31 degrees, best guess: Rain sounding from this frame in central TN
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NAM is still trying to shove a lp up into the gut of middle TN 4 run trend:
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12z 12 km NAM sleet sounding, I will defer to Tellico: location NE Alabama:
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Healthy moisture transport:
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I think it's possible, but should be taken with a hunk of salt for now.
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Just based on 500 mb trends at 15 hours out, I think the NAM will have more precip this run, mixing or not remains to be seen.
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I wasn't sure what Tellico was talking about with SHARPY, so I looked it up and thought I would share: https://sharppy.github.io/SHARPpy/
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Ron to run trend:
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I don't know which is better on the HRRR, the Kuchera or 10:1 lol.
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Maybe Powell will ride in like Gandalf at Helm's Deep to usher in the 18z runs?
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One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX: 5 run trend: ARW core NMB core: They are also too far north with the mixing line:
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Past 3 EPS means:
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Welp, still over an hour for the SREF, so might as well look at the EPS: 10th through 90th percentile snowfall (this is NOT an increasing Mean)
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