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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are your run to run changes at 500mb: There is more separation:, but the northern shortwave still manages to scoop the Baja energy out and semi phase?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO there are definitely some differences with the shortwaves between 0z and 6z: Will it lead to a different result? We'll see.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Saw someone on southernwx mention the WPC gives us some hope. So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent. *Have a weather model emotional gambling problem? Call 1-800-HATE-ME1
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like there is an aircraft doing dropsondes right now, didn't take off until 22z
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS make of it what ye will: run. to run snow change:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lawd that was &^%$&*(*)*)* depressing.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the CMC didn't get the full phase:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah. It was a tick north of 12z.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has an 850 lp circulation run from Arkansas to Lake Ontario:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    850s run-to-run change:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Toasty 850s Sunday PM
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Damn! It changes east TN over to rain:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro is disgusting. Brings rain into the lower plateau glacier load of ice
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tomer Burg now has made a snow anxiety index (sarcasm on my part) available. This is a gif of the 12z EPS run Here is his explanation of what it is:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Easier to see the LP trying to sneak up Highway 411 here: 18z-------------------------------------------------------------> 12z 850s:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    best image I have now, but the 850s have gone north by a county or so:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't have a whole lot of frames yet, but it looks like Euro AIFS has ticked back north a bit.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the GEFS upped .qpf, but strengthened the HP and kept 850 temps relatively similar: Actually having zoomed in, there is a bit of a northward tick with 850s:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of Mammoth... the hurricane hunters flight planned mentioned........
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since I've already got imgur pulled up, here y'all go:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I've noticed recently (and someone may have beat me to it in this thread) is that as the initial arctic high slides east and bananas out, another stout one is sliding in to supplement.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    As far as I know I can share: 12z para CMC: 12z on the right -------> 0z on the left:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the para CMC jumped about 200 miles south with its snow line since 0z. 40 north now instead of central KY
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was hesitant to mention it, but there were also sightings of the elk this fall at an even lower elevation than the last time we saw it nearby. I myself did not see it, so I’m not sure if it counts.
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