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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    A met in the MA forum mentioned the UKMET overnight, so guess what I did as soon as I saw that, lol, like a moth to a candle: One thing I'm interested in this AM is the RGEM. Unless I have missed something it is, very nearly, on a an island in how it handles the three pieces of energy. It misses the phase between the what I'm calling energy piece #2 (circled in pink) and #1 ( circled in black). 6z Euro for comparison: 6z Euro 3 hour precip: To misquote Wellington, "it's a damn close-run thing." UKMET, NAM 12km, and even the RGEM's parent, the CMC also have that capture. Interestingly the 6z GFS doesn't. As volatile as things have been, I'm hesitant to say there's pretty good agreement for some sort of wintery weather in eastern areas of our forum, but definitely still intriguing this AM.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of interesting. 18z Euro handles the energy early next week interestingly:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if differential temps had something to do with it. I bet there was some good 850 WAA today.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks even more interesting, if more marginal: ?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still a looooong ways to go, but there may be some over performance potential with this set up:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting beyond the gif above. It seems like that western ridge is reluctant, as you were saying, and the TPV is only pushed over by a building Greenland block, if we take this verbatim. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and how it looks without the smoothed mean. Some of the images were missing on weathermodels, so that is why it blanks out a bit towards the end.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looks pretty similar at that timestamp:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some fun perpendicular wave clouds coming off of the Smokies and the Frozen Head mts today, crashing together over Morristown:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the overnight ensembles for those interested. Not much change as far as I can tell: Trough is wanting to shift N and W. Convection has has seemed to have picked up over the dreaded Maritime Continent (MC) over the past couple of days, after a nice flare up in the central- Western Pac, but this AM at least, it looks kinda anemic and scattered again, compared to how it looked when I checked last night. Also note the "Pac Jet of Woe"(c) screaming across the central Pac. It may be that the lessening of convection this morning led to this solution on the OP 6z GFS: what had been just a big ol cutter, now looks like a more easterly, weaker cutter, with a little wave riding its front from the Gulf up the coast. To be fair there's probably more going on that a slight change in Tropical Convection. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but I have noticed sometimes or at least think I've noticed (lol) how the way models see that convection has impacts in their solutions.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    The overnight Euro and AM GFS still like something like a clipper with the next piece of energy (not the one for this weekend, but early next week). Snow looks elevation/ time of day dependent for now. The mesoscale models haven't gotten that far yet, so will be interesting to see what they do with it over the weekend. Ensembles have it too, but with a spread between nothing and more interaction with s. stream energy. Late bonus add UKMET:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Blunderstorm, Kentucky, and upper E TN folks, what the long range NAM taketh away one run, it returneth, yea yes and verily, on the next:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro closer to something interesting with the second piece of energy as it kicks out of the SW and interacts with a N. stream piece. Pieces are there on the GFS, CMC, UKMET, and ICON, just a question of how they all dance.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    So much flipping and flopping by models on the weekend system. Now the 6z NAM has gone to almost totally losing it by dumping more energy over N. Mexico. But now, even though the Euro still has some version of it, both the NAM and the Euro seem to be seeing a chance for the left over energy to interact with another (lol) piece of N. stream energy. As it stands on the 0z Euro it would be too positively tilted to do much for us, but as Carvers has noted there is soooo much energy flying around, it almost isn't worth looking at either this weekend's set up or the one I gifed above, more than 24 hours out, if that. Like Wurbus said, models really like the Dec 14 - 17 period for some sort of storm in the east. It fits one of the ways we get storms, as a pattern is shifting or reshuffling, or breaking down, a period ensembles are starting to see at the very ends of their runs. Storm-->arctic dump-->pattern shift. EPS's vision for that window, as of 0z today: But as the EPS city charts hint at, there are cutters, miller As, and Miller Bs all mixed in there and even some where a cutter leads to a Miller A/B. Tis the season for hope though, until it isn't, lol.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro is dancing to the NAM's tune.: I don't have the precip. maps yet, but look at the energy racing in from Canada. Someone in the interior from PA to ME is gonna get blasted if this whole thing comes together.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM out to hour 84 verbatim would be a heart breaker, but I suspect, if this were to verify, there might be more fun after hour 84:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is trying to do some kind of odd ball, last minute phase on the weekend storm:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z UKMET is in:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, this made me decide to go look at the UKMET.....and......: not an awful look at all
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    For us strat junkies, despite the wxtwitterverse occasionally seeing something to get excited about, I'm not seeing much yet, but there are some perturbations (as they say in the old country) toward 50mb. But up at the top, the SPV looks pretty stout (gif shows heights at 50 mb, but ends on heights at 10 mb): Lawrence's 3D vortex reflects that:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out in fantasy land the Euro looked interesting days 8 - 10: Not a lot of cold air around, so we would probably be waiting on a the N. stream to catch up to the southern one, even though the s. stream energy takes a sweet track. 0z EPS 24 hour snow plots look like scattershot, so not much agreement there for anything (though there is a little support for less than an inch around Memphis with the storm later this week). Long range EPS still liking the time near mid month for an even colder pattern, after a brief warm up: Like Cravers has said, this looks very very similar to what models showed at range, this time of the year, only to turn into a trough in the SW that only slowly and inconsistently pushes east. GEPS looks similar for a while, but in a change from some previous runs, it gets rid of EPO ridge over AK and plops a trough: That would produce the old Pac Puke GEFS looks like a split between the two, but leaning a little towards the GEPS: In terms of MJO/ tropical convection, not much to add to what Jeff said yesterday. So it seems a little weird that the GEFS and GEPS seem to have bit on a look that seems more MC convection based. The EPS does see a little more suppression/ confusion for how the MJO will evolve and Ventrice's plots seem to favor more western Pac convection towards week 3 (EPS, GEFS, and Ventrice's OLR plots, in that order): Actual convection doesn't really seem to reflect a big MC MJO event to me, but admittedly I have no clue what the MJO looks like on satellite, other than a mass of convection. Sure there is some convection there, but I have seen much worse. I've been watching it for a while this year and it just seems anemic each time it gets to the MC so far. Hopefully I haven't jinxed it now, lol. And there's convection out near the dateline,. Maybe the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is messing with the ensembles depictions of how tropical convection will evolve to impact the N Hemisphere pattern? Apologies if I have misrepresented anything others have said. 100% not my goal.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    2.5 - 3 for me depending on where I measured on my deck! Beautiful as day dawns. The ground temps must have been pretty warm even here. Elevated surfaces did great, the ground is still kinda splotchy in places that see a lot of sun.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Almost up to 2.5 now and pouring. I do like the RGEM. It seems like it sees some features better than the NAMs at range. But have to credit Carver's for teaching me to watch it.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's an interesting feature on radar and WV imagery that may give one more umph to everything tonight: radar: Water Vapor: WPC mesoscale analysis shows some 850 frontogenesis associated with it: I have no clue what that is, but it does seem to be heading our way. Maybe fortune favors the greedy tonight?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    1.5 inches here, 2 looking possible, hopefully a little more!
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