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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    So much flipping and flopping by models on the weekend system. Now the 6z NAM has gone to almost totally losing it by dumping more energy over N. Mexico. But now, even though the Euro still has some version of it, both the NAM and the Euro seem to be seeing a chance for the left over energy to interact with another (lol) piece of N. stream energy. As it stands on the 0z Euro it would be too positively tilted to do much for us, but as Carvers has noted there is soooo much energy flying around, it almost isn't worth looking at either this weekend's set up or the one I gifed above, more than 24 hours out, if that. Like Wurbus said, models really like the Dec 14 - 17 period for some sort of storm in the east. It fits one of the ways we get storms, as a pattern is shifting or reshuffling, or breaking down, a period ensembles are starting to see at the very ends of their runs. Storm-->arctic dump-->pattern shift. EPS's vision for that window, as of 0z today: But as the EPS city charts hint at, there are cutters, miller As, and Miller Bs all mixed in there and even some where a cutter leads to a Miller A/B. Tis the season for hope though, until it isn't, lol.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro is dancing to the NAM's tune.: I don't have the precip. maps yet, but look at the energy racing in from Canada. Someone in the interior from PA to ME is gonna get blasted if this whole thing comes together.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM out to hour 84 verbatim would be a heart breaker, but I suspect, if this were to verify, there might be more fun after hour 84:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is trying to do some kind of odd ball, last minute phase on the weekend storm:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z UKMET is in:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, this made me decide to go look at the UKMET.....and......: not an awful look at all
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    For us strat junkies, despite the wxtwitterverse occasionally seeing something to get excited about, I'm not seeing much yet, but there are some perturbations (as they say in the old country) toward 50mb. But up at the top, the SPV looks pretty stout (gif shows heights at 50 mb, but ends on heights at 10 mb): Lawrence's 3D vortex reflects that:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out in fantasy land the Euro looked interesting days 8 - 10: Not a lot of cold air around, so we would probably be waiting on a the N. stream to catch up to the southern one, even though the s. stream energy takes a sweet track. 0z EPS 24 hour snow plots look like scattershot, so not much agreement there for anything (though there is a little support for less than an inch around Memphis with the storm later this week). Long range EPS still liking the time near mid month for an even colder pattern, after a brief warm up: Like Cravers has said, this looks very very similar to what models showed at range, this time of the year, only to turn into a trough in the SW that only slowly and inconsistently pushes east. GEPS looks similar for a while, but in a change from some previous runs, it gets rid of EPO ridge over AK and plops a trough: That would produce the old Pac Puke GEFS looks like a split between the two, but leaning a little towards the GEPS: In terms of MJO/ tropical convection, not much to add to what Jeff said yesterday. So it seems a little weird that the GEFS and GEPS seem to have bit on a look that seems more MC convection based. The EPS does see a little more suppression/ confusion for how the MJO will evolve and Ventrice's plots seem to favor more western Pac convection towards week 3 (EPS, GEFS, and Ventrice's OLR plots, in that order): Actual convection doesn't really seem to reflect a big MC MJO event to me, but admittedly I have no clue what the MJO looks like on satellite, other than a mass of convection. Sure there is some convection there, but I have seen much worse. I've been watching it for a while this year and it just seems anemic each time it gets to the MC so far. Hopefully I haven't jinxed it now, lol. And there's convection out near the dateline,. Maybe the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is messing with the ensembles depictions of how tropical convection will evolve to impact the N Hemisphere pattern? Apologies if I have misrepresented anything others have said. 100% not my goal.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the long range pattern, the battle of wits ensembles continues: GEFS EPS: GEPS:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on the 0z NAM's surface low plots, I vote we call this the Hoot Owl storm:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    'Twere pretty @Daniel Boone but surely no match for SREF plumes:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro mighty close to making the jump across the Apps:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    They've been pretty consistent for both our areas with a one inch mean and no members showing 0.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BhamParker Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018. I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this: 6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+ But below that, here is what it looked like at about 5000-5500 feet: 4500 - 5000 feet: 2500 - 3000 feet: Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte: I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks like it almost wanted to run the SLP from Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC, but randomly jumps at hour 36 back to the TN/ NC border: I guess we're just at "see what happens time" now. One thing I did notice today was that there was a stronger wedge (from obs at southerwx) and a little bit of a leeside low near Asheville: That's now transitioned to a more of a diffuse area of lower pressure and the WPC even has a couple of what I think are inverted surface troughs and a Low hanging out in the piedmont. This may play a role in how the surface low behaves too, but honestly I'm not sure:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, their 1 -2 for Roan Mountain seemed a little low to me, but maybe they mean the town of Roan Mountain and not the 5500 - 6000 peak. Did I read earlier that you were getting a cabin near Gatlinburg @BhamParker?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The WRF NMM showed a similar solution at 12z: That would be as much of a run for my location as I can probably hope for.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM plows the surface low right up the TN/ NC border.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it, lol. 18z RGEM is coming in further SE.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the Ukie SLP gif. The gif jumps north at the end because the SLP drops off the SE sector view:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie also has that SLP reflection off the GA coast to pull on the Gulf low some, hopefully a good sign that a global sees that too.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather.
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