Holston_River_Rambler

You think there's any way we can talk some of these shortwaves diving in, into a March date in Georgia? Consider the peach blossoms and beaches! They get freaky on Euro AIFS, but over Scranton PA. Who wants romance in NE PA in March? The Euro OP knows its days are numbered this year, so its Breaking Bad in New Mexico and emerging a strung out mess. Not good for a phased consummation: (Although..... its antics might have drawn in a 3rd partner from the northern stream at the end of the run) Probably worse 500 mb looks: Euro control gives us a nice clipper afterwards. Not a current model forecast, but 5 days ago the models still liked this storm: That's the kind of phase I'd love to see.

6z GFS looking suppressed by N. stream troughs. Whatever that AIFS Euro is, doesn't look too bad at the end of its 0z run. DT is pessimistic on X. Hope is kindled in the damp boundary layer of my heart.

Is it possible for such a stout upper low to take this track when there is cold air nearby? No says I. Not since 1993.

Some photos from recent trips on the Cumberland mts: White Rocks above the Powell Valley looking toward Daniel Boone land: Sand Cave in Cumberland Gap NHP, waterfall: Piney River Falls and trout:

If you love in the central or southern east TN Valley, and you ever wanted to see what the warm air advectin looks like when we have a storm to our west mess up our thermal profiles, yesterday might not have been a bad visualization with the low level moisture:

Beautiful fantasy storm on the 6z GFS: (unless you live in Kingsport or Halls) GFS has been trying to to create a strong storm around 16 - 19th for a few runs now. Heck, I'd just love to see a strong storm take that track, lol.

I mis/ over-used the elk, wooly worm, and metal snowman and we all paid the price in February. I'm ready for a bowling ball.

I'm going to try with a March/ spring mid/ long range thread. Saw some snow at 4am. That's all I got.

Few fat wet snowflakes about 4am when I let the dogs out.

For those interested in the astronomologer guy, I found his thoughts on the PDO. It was a reply to a Bastardi post:

As far as I know the only thing I've seen is the astronomologer guy on X claiming it might flip sooner than his call of 2026. Now it looks like he deleted that thread now. Sad.

I finally figured out what those sick ____________s did to my elk:

You know there was another year where, according to the RMMs, the MJO did a big circle through 1-6 and then crashed into the COD and kind of flopped around. I just can't quite remember which year it was though... This year: Sadly it's not showing up on any of the CPC analogs:

This afternoon:

Some nice smoke in the valley and even up here in Morgan county this afternoon, reminds me of this last fall. Looks like a fire near Dayton, in Lee county Va, and a larger one in north GA.

6z GEFS member 6 has some potential:

The strat has done that with every attempted warming this winter. Sad. I have to admit @Carvers Gap I'm losing heart. Crocuses and daffodils now spring where the elk once trod. Trees are budding out on top of little Brushy mt. The MJO avoids the western hemisphere like Dale Farmer avoids Boozy Creek. I told myself after the "el nino" tongue-in-cheek comment I needed some time off until the weekend, but I can't not check on Americanwx yet. Too early. But even today's February bowling balls hate us and want us to die : I think we even have some sort of a pseudo Norlun trough over the Carolinas aimed at Damascus VA

El Nino

Got an NAO that looks like the strat one from 2018 at the end of the 6z GFS. I guess we'll see if it can hold.

Most people I see talking about it seem to think the hurricane season this year will be bonkers. I think I saw some reports of current heat in the Atlantic = to what we normally see in July. Supposedly high ACE seasons can correlate to better winters in the east. Raindance is already worried about + temp anomalies in the southwest.

Split window difference really cool this morning: Nighttime microphysics on the same-ish sector: I think the green on the split window denotes higher dewpoints, so it is really interesting to me that it is right at the edge of the clearing over KY.

Alright Kingsport folks, here we go. I think the wind is orthogonal to Bays Mt right now. The band seems to show up when it is more WNW. It does seem to be turning. I expect that band to show up at some point. I took some pics in Kingsport yesterday to see th sides of Bays mt. better and may try to puzzle on the band again this afternoon. I'm even thinking about just a specific random thread trying to figure out more about how topography impacts weather in east TN if I have time.

Also WOOOHOOOO I tied Knoxtron for once.

Welp, I too was surprised with a dusting this morning on elevated surfaces. Saw flurries when I let the dogs out at 230 AM. Can't believe it was almost 70 a few days ago. I mean, I can see a big storm overcoming warmth in front of it, but this little one did too.

With regards to the stratosphere stuff here is a trip down memory lane from 2018, when we had a SSW at almost the same time in Feb. (Feb 11) Different ENSO state, but if anyone wanted to look at some maps from that SSW, I found some cruising around our posts and other subforum posts from Feb 2018. MJO from that winter: Some similarities to what we have seen this winter. 2017-18 was a weak-moderate Nina. Probably a west pac warm pool/ PDO thing. H5 heights and height tendencies around the third week of Feb 2018. It's an unusual metric, but finding images from 2018 that are still active on Americanwx ain't easy lol: All of Feb 2018 monthly H5 anomaly composite: Here is what the Euro weeklies started to spit out around Feb 19 for early March: There is some weaker blocking showing up on the Euro extended control for this March but not until mid-late March: