Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,575

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another nice selection of dates before I was born. 16/20. Winters of Yore.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    On another note 12z CMC was an interesting run.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dr Schmaybe.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually going to say this weekend storm is a case where having that NAO would help us. But I suspect a big west based block could have consolidated it more to our south. I would like to see the -NAO line up with a stout passage through MJO 8/1/2 at some point in my weather tracking life, lol. Hopefully we get that in Feb. RGEM was dumping some decent snow in from North of Nashville to C KY this AM
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH to me the overnight runs look kind of ugly to me toward mid month. I think they’re probably seeing the MJO aiming at the dreaded 4/5/6 phases. There definitely would be some cold in North America but it would tend to drop west before east. Very Ninaesque pattern as some Mets in the New England forum were suggesting yesterday. Since we are in a pretty Nino pattern and it looks like there is going to be some good blocking models could be rushing the new look, but like others have said once we get into 4/5/6 we probably get a couple of weeks of a much more unfavorable pattern. They’re models though so it could all flip on a dime once we get closer. To be fair models have handled even the energy with this weekend storm VERY poorly.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH I was being a little bit disingenuous when I said it was the best Miller A so far. The below isn't aimed at you Met1985, but I figured if I want to type a little might as well type a lot. 1) the bar ain't really high so far for this system 2) at the surface it looks gorgeous on the ICON, but the mid levels are a mess. One thing that you see on the ICON and GFS is that there are at leas 2 separate vorts at H5 that interact for this: Watch how the lead (A) runs out in front on the ICON, while the second one digs and tries to consolidate late: You can see that on the 18z GFS too, but the lead vort (A) keeps its act together better, so the thermal profile for we unfortunates in the eastern TN Valley are in trouble: Euro has a slightly different evolution and tries to pull off a late phase: The result is pretty much the same., but it's at least nice to have something semi trackable. Hot off the presses the GEFS mean SLP is popping a surface low over Huntsville, AL, def. not a good sign for this side of the Apps.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just going off tropical tidbits for that run.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z ICON is probably the closest to a miller A of any OP run yet.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Milton messing around on his phone and having to be told Heupel was talking about him when the camera shows up pretty much sums up how I feel about Milton’s attitude. Ready for the Nico era!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Chatty about to get NAM’d
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the Ukie gif MSLP: It's got a wonkier relationship with a midwest low, but the strongest Gulf low (998 south of New Orleans and Mobile)
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it didn’t serve quite as well as it did at 0z but still ok for plateau areas above 1600 feet or so.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Ukie is in the 0z Euro/12z GFS/ ICON camp
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sure enough CMC jumped north as the GFS jumped south.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are some of the plots for MSLP and 850 hPa wind centered on Saturday AM around midnight:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Euro has some Machine Learning models for some basic parameters available to the public for free. New models to hug I guess. Looks like they have trended more S and E with the track for the weekend storm. Could change though and these are experimental.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’m glad 14 of those were before I was born. Probably not a bad sign.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS also trying to split the SPV again: Like others have said it doesn't matter so much if it splits, only if it is distressed and not a tightly coupled wound ball over the pole. Speaking of coupled, what an -AO at 500 mb on the 6x GFS: There is 100% some major warming happening in the strat over the next week, it just probably won't qualify as a major SSWE based on the wind reversal criteria. GFS has temps approaching 0 degrees celsius at 10 mb: Euro isn't quite as aggressive but similar: It seems to be trying to drip down, and I wonder if that is the -AO the GFS is starting to see at long range. Maybe not, but worth keeping an eye on:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    NW precip jog continues at 6z: trough trending sharper and deeper: Let's see where it goes.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    If the MJO does spend the next month ambling through 4/5/6, in a strong Nino, after we’ve had years of Nina to reset the PAC SST gradient after the super Nino in 15/16, is there any ENSO state that would favor an active gulf coast storm track AND cold in North America? Not saying that will happen but it is on the table now. At least we have a decent storm track coming up. I will say the conflicting MJO convection has tended to produce a stronger Norther jet IMO this year and that has increased model uncertainty at times.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later) I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm) close up snap shot from that run: There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm at a light flizzard right now. Actual recognizable snowflakes, lol.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm getting some flurries here in Morgan County. Not a terrible radar, we'll see how well it holds together:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro for next Wed Jan 3 through Mon Jan 8. 6z GFS has a similar storm with more cold: CMC has the storm, but is suppressed It does have the beautiful slider John mentioned earlier later in its run. EPS city chart for Crossville looks ok with a few good hits:
×
×
  • Create New...