Holston_River_Rambler

Thought I would create a general obs thread for winter in case anyone sees some snow this AM and of course for the rest of the winter. @Knoxtron looks like some temps are between 34 and 36 down your way. Some radar returns down in. NE Alabama look snow-like: Wouldn't be surprised if you, or John, or one of our Cumberland county folks get a quick dusting.

True. We need some thunder in the mountains! That index has bottomed out for now.

You know, if we ever wanted an Aleutian trough, we have one, at least for now. Absolutely massive trough, maybe just a bit too far west.

Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next: It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO.

Sleet here this evening.

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. Gawd: And this later in the run especially: The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so. Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided. I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above. Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.

Compromise between 18z Euro and 18z GFS = reality for the Dec 2-3 time frame?

I haven't started my WxBell or other subscriptions yet, but would be interested to see some of the individual members on GEFS and EPS for Dec 1 -3. Edit:

Decent overnight runs with a front swinging through and a weak low forming around Dec 1-2. Room for a NW trend at this range.

Pretty nice run of the Euro AIFS at 6z.

Aurora pics from Morgan county. 3 second exposure on an iPhone

Before the high clouds move in, here is a a tru color GOES pic of the area: High Knob snow shadow in effect:

Some pics form yesterday: Convective cloud tops: Snow on blossoms: Snow on kudzu: Probably about half an inch total IMBY:

Maybe some pareidolia on my part, but it almostlooks liek there is a little boundary running from central KY to near Greene county, TN:

I have something between a heavy frost and a crustellation of snow. Man the shortwave looks strong: Hopefully someone gets a nice surprise in the valley.

Flurries in MoCo now.

@Knoxtronhows it looking down your way? I’d say I’m about 2 hours from temps cooperating for snow. Looks like several places near crossville are already there

RAP and HRRR give us a radar presentation like a little cyclone tomorrow. I wonder if that will verify?

New graphic as of 5am eastern from MRX: Watches, advisories, and warnings: Some key goosies from teh overnight Disco: As such, I am highly confident there will be widespread snow showers across at least the northern half of the CWA, if not the northern two thirds of the CWA during that time. It`s entirely possible some locations could pick up an inch of snow or more - one might even say it`s likely. However, confidence in where exactly that occurs is very low. Recent ensemble data shows increasing confidence in a notable snowfall event for the Smokies, with probabilistic data giving high confidence in snowfall totals exceeding 8 inches. The evening shift updated the totals to include an 11" total for Mount LeConte area, and Newfound Gap won`t be too far behind that I don`t believe. Went ahead and upgraded the Watch to a Winter Storm Warning because of this. Additionally, there`s sufficient confidence in snowfall totals exceeding Advisory level criteria elsewhere in the east TN mountains and the higher terrain of our Virginia counties, so I added an Advisory to those areas, grabbing Monroe county on the southern end too. There`s signal in the higher resolution guidance that shows Sams Gap area along the I- 26 corridor closing in on the 5-6" range; I wouldn`t be surprised if the High Knob area in Wise county winds up with something similar. Elsewhere, other areas in the advisory should be covered just fine with the 1-4" totals. It`s highly likely that some adjustments or outright expansion of snowfall totals, areal coverage of these headlines, or both, will be needed on the day shift today.

I haven't started any subscriptions yet, so I don't have access to all the fun charts, but I pulled 0-3km CAPE and lapse rates on the RAP on the COD site from 12z Monday through about the next 20 hours CAPE: Low level lapse rates: Can we praise the sun angle for this one, lol? Euro throws out some 700 mb frontogenesis: Really helps this vort. is rolling through at what peak heating we will have. No matter how you slice it, it looks like we will have moisture, lift, and cooperative temps. Thankfully this isn't October, so we don't have that La Nina kiss of death. Euro and RGEM take the vort. right over my head in Morgan County. NAMs like TRI, SWVA and Eastern KY. GFS looks like MRX gets the overhead pass.

Sorry, been swamped this fall. Every weekend I tell myself I will check in but something comes up. I know that once I'm committed to tracking, I'm committed Here are some sky, sunrise/set pics from the summer.

I was actually out of town for that. Just a lot of trees down in Frozen Head and some moderate flooding IMBY.

Random severe storm rolling N and NW in Monroe county this PM. Can see the towering clouds from my place in Morgan county.

Sorry man.

How did everything turn out?