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Everything posted by John1122

  1. GFS and Canadian are back on the possible rain to snow event heading into next weekend. GFS is Plateau and East Tennessee based. Much more widespread across the state on the Canadian. See if the Euro comes back on board too.
  2. All overnight models have an Eastern Valley snow event. The Euro was the biggest of them all and got the mid Valley involved as well.
  3. Potent front on the 00z GFS in about 8 days. 30 degree temp drops and back side snow with cold catching and undercutting the storm.
  4. The Canadian delivers goods and always ends on a cliffhanger for someone.
  5. I watched OSU and Michigan playing in the snow too. Too bad one had to win.
  6. It didn't work out for us last time we had a cold November but it has a very good shot in our region. I looked at all those Novembers a few years ago and came up with a pretty good idea about the relationship. I've since found this map that shows a moderate Correlation between November and winter temps for most of our area. No correlations are 100 percent and they can blow up in our faces from time to time but here are the QBO trends. It was -19 for October, down from -16 in September. It normally falls for about 12-15 months in a row and peaks downward around -26 to -28. Here are the QBO stats in weak Nina years and in years where it was falling through winter, and years where it was below -15 for the winter. We are in A on the bottom chart and hopefully we can remain there with the drop continuing. It should based on past history. October was the 5th month in a row it fell. In 2009-10 it actually blipped up a little from September into October but then it started falling again into winter and we had a nice winter. It was falling in 1993-94 and January 1994 was very cold. It was falling in winter 1995-96 which is an all time great winter here. It was falling in 2014-15 which was a brutal winter in the area too. The 2014-15 winter is the only one where we've timed it right to be falling to below -20 in January and February since 1979 when CPC has records for it. The bottom map is Jan-Feb of 2015. Maybe, if we are lucky, it will do it again this year.
  7. Looking back at Ninas I've not found a pattern to suggest they are front loaded in our region. They cluster about equally with cold/wintry periods from Dec 1st to February 20th over the course of the last 70 years that had a Nina. About 2/3rds of them feature cold and wintry outbreaks and about half of those have long (10 days or longer) severe winter outbreaks. About 1/3rd are wall to wall warm, those tend to be stronger Ninas.
  8. Follow up Nina's since 1950 Dec 1950 - cold, -6 to -8 in the area. Snow fell on 6-10 days according to your location in the state. Jan 1951 AN slightly, but from the Plateau west the end of month had the brutal ice/snow storm that crippled Nashville. Feb 1951 was around normal to slightly below normal the further west you went, but it was a brutal cold 1st half of the month and very warm back half. February had a -11, -10, and -5 here as well as a -1 and a 4. The back half had some near 70 degree weather. Dec 1955 was cold, -2 to -4 across the area. Several snowy days before and after Christmas but it hit nearly 70 on Christmas day. Jan 1956 was cold -4 to -6 across the state. Also snowy. Nice snows happened state wide. Most notable was a 5-8 inch event late month that got everyone except Chattanooga, who only got a trace. Feb 1956 flipped warm and was +3 to +5. Dec 1971 had a few cold days but was mostly a torch. +6 to +8 Jan 1972 was slightly cooler but still finished around +2 Feb 1972 was around -1 to -2. The whole winter didn't feature much in the way of cold or snow in the valley areas but the Plateau from here to Crossville picked up around 8-10 inches in February. It was a very wet month with over 9 inches of precip. Dec 1974 was around -1 and there were several snow events here, the biggest on Dec 1st. Snow fell on 9 days with 9 inches total. 6 on Dec 1st. Jan 1975 was overall warm but with some cold days thrown into the mix. Around +4 to +5 Feb 1975 was also warm but with a few colder and snowy days. It was around +2 to +3 We know well how 84-85 went. Slow start in Dec, January was legendary with several shots of record cold and snow for the entire valley. February remained cold and more big snows came around Valentines day. It finally torched late in Feb. Dec 1999 was near normal here and we pulled off a White Christmas with an inch of snow imby Jan 2000 had a nice cold and snow shot late month here. Feb 2000 was AN and not wintery. 2011-12 was not good for winter lovers at all. So basically follow up Ninas run the gamut, two of the most incredible winter periods from a cold and wintry precip standpoint, in the history of the state happened during follow ups. Several were just warm and blah, several were in the middle with warm and cold periods that delivered snow for some and not for others.
  9. Tennessee would have to work hard to play any worse than they are today. Villanova is good but Tennessee is just terrible.
  10. I was up for the eclipse this morning. The moonlight on a very very heavy frost almost looked like snow.
  11. About half the internet seems down for me this morning. Pivotalweather is down. Twitter is down. WBIR and WATE is down. Facebook works, weather. Gov works. The gifs posted by Holston aren't working for me as their hosting site seems down. Very odd.
  12. At the point I'm yelling and clapping, they've already seen me. It's rare to come across one here that doesn't immediately head for the hills as soon as they see/smell a human. They are as skittish as wild deer here. I'd guess I'm within a 100 yards or so of them often, especially in summer when I can't see very far, and I never know they are there.
  13. I just clapped my hands and yelled and he took off. They are pretty skittish here. No tourists or anything, they are truly wild.
  14. Ran into this fellow yesterday walking in the woods behind my house.
  15. Even with three mornings in a row in the 20s, the leaves are still hanging in with strong colors around 1500 and down.
  16. Pretty sure that gonzo run promoted a statement from the MRX Facebook page about crazy model snow outputs. It's gone on the 6z, interesting that it actually started D8/9 on the 0z. Huge snow events are very possible in November. November and March are single storm record holders for many in the valley region.
  17. Hit 34 at midnight. Currently 32.8 with heavy frost forming. Still expecting 29-30 by morning.
  18. The big softwoods are still colorful here but losing leaves fast. The 25 footers and down are mostly or fully bare. The hardwoods are pretty colorful but are always muted compared to the maples and such here. They usually start to turn, a bug freeze hits and they brown fast.
  19. Raw, cold day today, 42 degrees as we pass 11am. Leaves are still nice but slightly past peak. Lots of the smaller trees are bare now. Even though MRX is forecasting 33 here as of now for tonight, I suspect we will be close to the 29 that's being forecast just across the KY line in Whitley Co. A heavy frost/freeze will push a lot of leaves down.
  20. The Euro backed off that bonkers run from last night but still has accumulating snow on the Plateau and mountains. More in the 2-3 inch range rather than 3-6 inches. The Canadian also shows an inch or two along the same areas. MRX has introduced a chance of rain or snow showers here for next Friday. Says rain with a low of 32 Thursday night, rain and show showers Friday with a high of 43.
  21. It was snowing there yesterday evening according to WVLT.
  22. Well that was an epic Euro run for Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure works south of the area and up into the Carolinas with heavy wet slop behind it, nails the Plateau/SE Ky. The Euro phases the southern stream and northern stream and really wraps in some cold air. No phase on the GFS. Early season model battle.
  23. Today, anything between 1250 and 2500 looks good. Tons of color. I didn't drive up to 3000 and it's in a cloud the past two days so I'm not sure what the status is that high up.
  24. European and Canadian showing the first flakes early next week again tonight.
  25. Colors looked brilliant in the cloudy backdrop today. This heavy rain may be taking a toll on them tonight. I think they're still going to have a little more time though. They weren't as far along as they were last year when the rain storm took them off.
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