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Everything posted by John1122

  1. Why can't the Euro show the NAM solution?? I do not expect this to happen and hope I'm very wrong.
  2. After the 00z suite, pretty sure I'm out of chances. Not willing to hang my hat on the ICON. But there may be some flakes in the air from Memphis to Tueplo to Huntsville to Chattanooga.
  3. Front end thump comes and goes for our area. It's looking good for southern areas. Crazy how those areas average the same or less snow than our general area but have just crushed our forum area year after snowwise. No idea why it's gotten so much harder to snow specifically in the Tennessee valley but other areas of the South seem to get about their normal amount every year.
  4. Frontogenesis at 700mb in purple. Also waa into the snowgrowth zone aiding moisture transport
  5. The NAM 2 of the last 3 runs has shown very favorable frontogenesis setting up over various parts of Tennessee, when it does the precip is here and in a good amount. The frontgenesis 700mb maps aren't out yet for the 18z run but I suspect we will see it here when they come out.
  6. The NAM at 81-84 seems pretty decent for parts of the forum area as well. Keep in mind it's the NAM at 84.
  7. Big jump north on the Euro for the system Thursday. Precip field moved from South of Atlanta at 12z to SW Virgina at 00z. A light stripe of snow falls across a lot of the state early Thursday that run. Will see if this is a trend toward even more moisture for us or not. The HP in Iowa and moisture in Texas is a classic for us normally.
  8. I think the HP is being over modeled. The models and especially the GFS roll these big 1045-1050 highs down all the time and they verify at 1035 when they actually arrive.
  9. My snow season lately lasts into April. I've had far more snow in March/April than January the last several years. I used to rarely get through March without a 3+ inch event. Its usually gone 36 hours later though.
  10. .91 in the bucket since around 3am this morning. MRX has most of the area in the 4-6 inch range by Thursday. Not sure that flash flooding will be an issue but a lot of slow rising water issues will happen at that point. I'm now at 8.17 inches of rain already for the month and had 7.35 last month. So already 8 inches or so above normal for 2020.
  11. Not anything wintry on the Euro but 5-10 inches of rain basically valley wide over the 10 days. Basically everyone from Murfreesboro east is 300-400 percent above normal for the last 30 days according to the AHPS Precip Analysis maps. If we get to February 19th with 10-15 inches of rain in the bucket for the month, that will be staggering for flooding unless spring turns dry.
  12. Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning.
  13. Hard to see here but its pouring snow above 1700 feet here. Was mixed when I was in town around 1200 feet, saw the foggy look up the mountain and it was really coming down hard. Saw the GFS showing it but was skeptical.
  14. Probably out of luck on winter for the next 10 or 15 days, but extremely wet conditions are likely to continue. If you blend the GFS/Euro/GGem the entire forum likely sees 4-6+ inches of rain the next 10 days. Norris Lake went up 14 feet from the rain the other day. Another rise like that and roads are underwater again this year. Last year it got to 1030ft and low lying homes in southern Campbell co were basically on islands.
  15. It virtually always gets cold 10-20 days after phase 7 (seeing that now) and that worked before. But it's probably too late in the year for most areas to wait that long so it not getting in 7 is good at least.
  16. Well we've had snow on the ground in northern Miss, Memphis area, Nashville area and now most Eastern areas. Not the best events except the Nooga area thumping this morning but in such a terrible stretch of terrible winters at least it's something. Maybe we can spin something else up before winter ends. Probably not going to see a classic slider or Miller A, but always liable to see smaller scale events that hit parts of the forum area before cold season ends.
  17. MRX posted about the snow starting at Morristown and mentioned sun angle causing it not to accumulate.
  18. Downtown Knox from a friend heading to the Vols vs UK game.
  19. This is a bit too far north but looks like it was the closest run of any model. I posted this yesterday and mentioned how models were busting South and East this year and under modeling the NW precip shields. No globals ever caught on to this really and even the NAM lost it after this run.
  20. Looks fairly robust right along 40 and south. A few rogue flurries here. Looks like the NAM yesterday from 18z may have handled it closest with snow accumulation from Knox to Chattanooga.
  21. According to MRX Chattanooga and other southern valley areas of East Tennessee and NE Alabama should see some big flakes with this one. There's not much better than those half dollar or larger ones smacking down, they accumulate quickly too. With luck the system will be a little bit more vigorous north and west to get more of you guys in the game.
  22. Who knows if we will even get another event this season, I like to go back in summer and read these threads of any events we have. May the WWA verify for our Southeastern Valley areas, as you guys can barely get a car top whitener the last few years.
  23. That surprised me. Williamsburg got 3 inches. Figured you'd get 2 or 3 as well.