John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. OHX issued a WWA for their Plateau counties. Says 1-2 inches with higher amounts in spots. MRX issued one for their Plateau counties over into SW VA and NE Tennessee. Generally a 1-3 inch forecast for now. Said they were going to follow the HRRR.
  2. 3k NAM. It also ticked up quite a bit across the area. This one may get Kevin in NE Arkansas as well.
  3. Models are on the uptick state wide with the GFS being downright aggressive. So if figured we may as well have a last minute forecast and Obs thread for it.
  4. NAM beginning to catch on maybe. This is massively up from 0z which was almost a blank outside the mountains. I swear it seems like the Christmas eve event saw the same models doing the same but the GFS and Canadian have flipped. Seems like the NAM at 84 was good then in collapsed til the last minute.
  5. HRRR looks decent north of 40 state wide.
  6. It didn't back down at 0z. It's either going to have a wacky coup or be hilariously wrong this close to the event.
  7. I'm always amazed that the GFS and NAM can ingest the same data and likely use some of the same physics and can have such massively different outcomes.
  8. I don't know what got into the GFS, but bring it on!
  9. Another decent night of runs on the models. Even the UK edged it's snow up a little bit where it had been blanking most everyone. Models seem to be coming towards the 1-3 inch area along and north of 40 with 1 inch being much more common. Much heavier at elevation in the far east. The GFS and Canadian are showing another light 1-3 inch type system for some of us a few days later too. We will see if the European comes around any or not.
  10. Nothing remotely severe here but lots of thunder and lightning and very heavy rain.
  11. Frequent thunder with the storm rolling over now.
  12. Went back and looked, the UK and Euro were throwing up blanks to 1 inch totals for Christmas eve 72 hours out. Doesn't mean they will be wrong this time, but the Canadian/GFS was doing much better with it by then.
  13. Each model seems to handle different systems much better than others. The Euro was really bad here for the anafrontal Christmas eve event. It didn't catch on until the last minute if I recall correctly. The Canadian/RGEM was pretty close for mby but probably had too much in other areas.
  14. The NAM and GFSv16/GFS all seem to support at least a widespread inch.
  15. GFS and GEM aren't nearly as heavy as the v16 but both have almost valleywide snow. If we can get the Euro on board I'd feel decent about some 1 to 2 inch potential for a lot of us. Especially since it's generally coming at night. The V16 wasn't as exciting as 18z but didn't back off much.
  16. 18z GFSV16 finally ran. Good run for many of us except as Jeff pointed out, the Chattanooga area. The waves like the anafrontal Christmas event very evident again.
  17. It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too.
  18. Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us. At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville. Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96.
  19. Its heading toward an everyone vs the Euro situation now. Should be in the long range of the short range models soon. The GFS had those weird snow strips that came with an earlier system this season. Maybe the Christmas one?
  20. 06z GFS looks a little like 0z GFSV16, with NW Tennessee getting in the game and an overall south shift. The 06 GFSV16 looks really good north of 40 across the area. Plateau and west.
  21. It's similar to runs of the GFSV16 from earlier.
  22. A low track further south with better HP overhead. The models have slowly been shifting south with it. They were cutting it straight to a block then transferring it at one point. That's what got NC in the big snow window. Still transferring but the low isn't transferring from WVA now.
  23. Canadian shifted the blues (1+ inch) about two counties south. Light snow nearly statewide on it. Decent event for southern KY.
  24. Head to salt mountain with this, but the GFSV16 gets the west valley in the game. I believe this will be the main GFS in February.