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Everything posted by John1122
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The rain is done the opposite of busted today, and we are flooding. Heavy rain and thunder going on out there now. I've not looked at the rain gauge this morning yet, but 1.5 inches had fallen when I checked at midnight last night and it's poured all night since then. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The rain is delivering today. Heavy downpours and it actually thundered. -
47-48 was around normal in Dec, cold and very snowy in Jan, AN in Feb. The cold wasn't extreme (nothing below -6) in January but persistent and it was around -7 for the month with 18 inches of snow here. 75-76 were similar but with about half the total snow here. Dec was around -2.5, January was around -5, Feb was AN but the biggest snow event was in Feb. January had a two decent snow events on the Plateau (3.5 and 5 inches), up into Pennington Gap/Wise, Va, that don't appear to have been much of anything outside of the Cumberland Mountain region. That led to 4 different mornings of below zero weather for here, Oneida, and Wise. Snow fell on 14 different days in the month in other areas but it was T to .5 inch amounts and lowest bottomed out around 1-3 in most of the area.
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Managed some rain this evening but not a lot. Hopefully we get soaked tomorrow and Sunday. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 06 GFS is advertising a ton of thunderstorms consistently across the area during the next two weeks, with around 8 inches of rain over my area. That would be both a drought buster, and would hopefully constrain the heat a little bit. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 12z Euro came in looking like the GFS, or even hotter, for the lower elevations. 100+ for Nash, Knox, and Chattanooga next Saturday on it. The AI is still more in the low to mid 90s camp. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The GFS is still baking the heat into the area but the Euro/Euro AI are more reasonable looking. Still hot but 4-6 degrees cooler than the GFS is advertising. Looks like MRX has followed the Euro temp guidance for my area today vs the GFS yesterday. They had my high at 97 Wednesday during yesterdays forecast, today it's 93. The 12z GFS is showing 98 over my area Wed/Thur/Friday still but the Euro AI shows 90-92. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I hope we get some rain down between Friday night and Sunday. Temps near 100 showing up for next week will exacerbate the drought. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Ended up with .90, areas 10 or so miles south picked up around 1.5-2 inches. Fortunately its been cloudy and drizzly today with temps in the mid 60s. So the rain has been a able to soak in with not much evaporation loss. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's like Cross Mountain is a wall these days where all rain goes to die. Heavy radar returns just fall apart and the rain just splits. I had about 10 minutes of a shower. I don't recall in my lifetime ever seeing rain dry out specifically over this small area so often. I've seen droughts before but this one seems like almost a micro drought. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Norris can use that water. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I managed .65 as things were mostly south or north of me. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I've gotten a few light showers, but just barely north of me .75 to 2 inches have fallen. I thought the storms in Kentucky were going to move south but they appear to be moving NE now. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks rough Daniel Boone's way, flash flood warning and a tornado warning both. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Already looking like tomorrow's rain will bust again here. Brutal. This fall will be rough if things don't change. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Managed 10 minutes of rain. Another big disappointment. Hopefully something else develops tonight. From here to SW Va it is extremely dry. Norris Lake is 15+ feet below normal summer pool for mid-June. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's been raining down your way. Looks like you're getting more today. It's been dry up here. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Another day with 90 percent rain and storms that's probably going to miss here again unless we get some miracle developments. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The predicted rain and storms were indeed a total flop here. Not sure what's causing the bad bad model misses this spring and early summer. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not sure if today is still a go for the storms or not. Everything that came along was south of here so far. If so, this will be the 3rd or 4th 80/90 percent rain chance day that was a total miss here in the last few weeks. That's way more than I can recall in such a short period. -
You're usually pretty accurate with these. I'm in your red dashed area.
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The area Kakashi was talking about expanded with today's update.
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I've managed a few showers so far today. Heavy when they start but very short lived. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I ended up with .25. The rain today looks like it's being stubbornly north in Kentucky. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Today's rain was a total dud here. It rained west of here all day and then it moved over my area finally and was a 20 minute light shower.
