John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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It's crazy to see snow dumping over the gulf stream off the South Carolina coast. But here we are where it snows heavily over warm ocean areas but avoids it at all costs for East Tennessee.
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It was ever so slight, but the Weather Next moved the precip slightly west and slightly more for most of East Tn vs 06z. So a small step in the right direction.
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Weather Next is delayed for some reason.
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The 12z Weather Next should be out in a few minutes.
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At the end of its run, the RGEM looked like it was going to wind up similar to the GFS/Canadian.
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We just need the vort to wrap over West Tennessee vs East Tennessee. The Canadian and GFS do it there, the Euro isn't as wound up and brings it further East. The Euro Ai is closer to the Canadian/GFS than the OP Euro.
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The lee side low has popped up a few times.
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The Euro remains Dr. No. It only tends to badly miss when it shows snow. When it doesn't, lock it in usually.
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Bottomed out at -3 this morning.
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Euro Ai is blah.
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UKIE was a major westward shift too. Only helps the far east but it was about like the GFS.
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The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response.
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The Canadian is single digits to low 10s while snowing.
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Canadian is a big run from Cookeville and points east it looks like. It was really good with this last storm and the first turd in the punch bowl showing massive warm noses. Hopefully it's right here.
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GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run.
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Man, that's an unfortunate eastward shift from weather next.
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Euro AI was pretty steady and right about the same as 12z. Euro OP was worse for anywhere in Tennessee than 12z.
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The Weather Next precip shield has expanded west 3 runs in a row.
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I hope so, we were supposed to have cleared out already but it's not yet.- 618 replies
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- observations
- obs thread
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Weather Next QPF map. 10:1 THAT would be 2.5-4 from the Plateau eastward, but we may be looking at 15:1 or 18:1 ratios.
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It was the best from what I could tell and basically similar to what happened from 5+ days out. It seems to lock on and hold steady while others bounce around. It may have just gotten lucky. But it's 500mb verification scores are the best of all models this winter.
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Weather Next would probably be 3-6 inches for most areas from maybe just each of Nashville and East, with 5-8 over far eastern areas.
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It is pouring quarter + sized flakes out there right now. It's wringing every drop of moisture out. 2 very fluffy inches since last night.
- 618 replies
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- 4
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- observations
- obs thread
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