John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The NAM is amped (of course) and has the rain up to 40. The ICON was another good pass/run. The RGEM looks like it was going to be similar to the ICON/EURO etc.
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TNC005-017-079-183-160230- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0230Z/ Weakley TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Henry TN- 757 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY...NORTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND HENRY COUNTIES... At 757 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Paris, McKenzie, Huntingdon, Paris Landing State Park, Dresden, Gleason, Atwood, Cottage Grove, Routon, Vale, Springville, Trezevant, Puryear, Big Sandy, Henry, McLemoresville, Sandhill, Mansfield, Old Springville, and Como. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3595 8865 3601 8870 3606 8869 3618 8873 3636 8853 3650 8834 3650 8806 3647 8805 3644 8806 3635 8798 3627 8794 3622 8795 3621 8794 TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 238DEG 44KT 3640 8812 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 749 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Henderson County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Gibson County in west Tennessee... Northwestern Hardeman County in west Tennessee... Southwestern Carroll County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Haywood County in west Tennessee... Madison County in west Tennessee... * Until 830 PM CST. * At 749 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mercer, or 10 miles southwest of Jackson, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jackson, Humboldt, Lexington, Fairview, Three Way, Bemis, Blue Goose, Bargerton, Mercer, Parkers Crossroads, Carroll, Medina, Hickory Flat, Neely, Cedar Grove, Huntersville, Beech Bluff, Westover, Madison Hall, and Uptonville.
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18z Euro was another nice hit from Kentucky down to Northern Bama. Nice EPS too. As good as the 12z.
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Around my area this afternoon. If we get poured on again tonight, some really dangerous situations may develop in the dark.
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The ICON was similar to the Euro.
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Each model is basically a little colder and a little heavier on the snow output than the runs from 00z.
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It thundered a lot here this morning at 37 degrees. I hope there's no severe.
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The fire hose finally turned off here. The creeks around my house are probably in the top 5 or 6 that I've seen them. If it had rained another couple of hours we probably move into the top 3.
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It's looking pretty good right now, but it's never a given here until we see the flakes falling. We are due for one that doesn't go south or north.
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Flooding pretty wide spread here. A lot of thunder today with temps in the 30s. Not common. Heavy rain ongoing with 2.24 inches down so far today.
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This EPS run may be as good as any we see for this system. Add an inch for ratio's north of 40 especially.
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The UKIE (which is normally the warmest model) had mixing/warm nose issues for the far eastern areas and a lot of sleet, but still put down a lot of snow from 75 west basically.
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Precip is running way later than forecast. It was supposed to rain heavily here tonight, and I don't think anything makes it until daybreak. It is down to 35 degrees.
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The UK 10:1 and ratio'd map aren't a ton different. It's the warmest of all the guidance from what I can gather.
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GFS is a "meh" for the east, good for the Northern half of the western forum. The Canadian is a monster. The ICON somewhere in-between.
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It's hard to ask for a better track than the GFS throws out at 18z. That track should have a bigger and better precip shield. I assume it transfers or something and falls apart like the January system kept getting modeled to do.
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The Euro was similar to 00z but less precip overall. Colder with high ratios. Way way way colder than the UK.
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The Euro was like a slightly weaker version of the Canadian. Eastern areas get the most. 1-3 west of the Plateau. 4-8+ across much of the east. The UKIE is similar in the East with heavier snow in the western areas. Won't be surprised if it's entirely different tomorrow.
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UKIE is a pretty significant winter storm for the region. If this slips under 120 hours (it's close now) it's probably close to thread starting time.
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The GFS/ICON/Canadian all still have the snow event. The Canadian is a monster after being not so good earlier. The GFS is improved and the ICON was a bit as well.
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Modeling is still moving around with the potential snow next week. The GFS has been back and forth with a monster. The others are lighter events. They're pretty much showing everything from a forum wide event to a west only or east only event. Hopefully we can reel it to within 48 hours.
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Moderate rain ongoing. 1.04 inches today so far. Just over 3 inches since yesterday.
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25 was the OP last night.
