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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    According to how far north you live, looks like you're probably good for 1 to 4+ inches. But the story isn't written yet, I don't believe. There's gonna be someone close to an edge north and south that sees snow a few miles away but doesn't get much.
  2. John1122
    It was actually still snowing over East Tennessee at the end of the run.
  3. John1122
    21z RAP
  4. John1122
    I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR? Yes. It's the new NAM too.
  5. John1122
    18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point.
  6. John1122
    It doesn't, in my experience. Elevation usually is a factor in marginal surface temp set ups. March 22 saw 10-12 inches here and elevation made no difference that I could tell. We were very cold throughout. The DGZ does get to the ground here when it's below 0. You'll see ice crystals filling the air even when the sky is clear.
  7. John1122
    The GFS starts out the same as the hi-res models but narrows the QPF field way more than they do as the run wears on. Not sure why that is.
  8. John1122
    The GFS QPF field move N/NW about as much as the RGEM. The same area of N.GA that went from .4 QPF to .1 on the RGEM also did on the GFS. We're talking 25-40 miles. Basically a county width or so.
  9. John1122
    With how it goes around here, the actual worst one is usually the one that shows the most snow!
  10. John1122
    The RGEM precip field moved NW about as much as the NAMnest moved SE.
  11. John1122
    Congrats It's literally been that exact same run from like 140 hours til now around 70.
  12. John1122
    The RGEM is rocking Knox area as it's right on the edge of the mix/zr/sleet.
  13. John1122
    Yes, the RGEM is about 2 counties north of where it was at 12z with its qpf field. North Georgia went from .4 qpf to .1.
  14. John1122
    RGEM looks a little north of 12z.
  15. John1122
    Right now the hi-res snow footprint is much larger than the global footprint. The NAM snow footprint there on the 12k and 3k is 300+ miles north to south. The globals are about half or less of that.
  16. John1122
    The 12k shifted about 25-30 miles and let the precip run further east as well as south. Not as heavy in the heaviest areas but more widespread vs 12z.
  17. John1122
    3k shift about 15-20 miles south with it's snow. North Knox gets 4-5 inches.
  18. John1122
    It's model chaos but you're in as good a spot as any as of now. Maybe better with the Euro on your side currently.
  19. John1122
    3k is a more robust version of it's 12z run. Tons of mixing issues in the far eastern areas. 12k is decently SE of it's 12z run and has more qpf. Knox County is a battle ground on there with snow and freezing rain. I wouldn't be shocked if the SE trend continues. The map is very similar to the SRF mean map.
  20. John1122
    3k NAM has a similar orientation of the precip from 12z, it just has much much more QPF.
  21. John1122
    It's stepping slightly SE this run.
  22. John1122
    The 3k looks a little better/colder than the 12k.
  23. John1122
    It's depicting rain over southern Knox at 39 but the temp is 29 and the Skew T says freezing rain. Not sure why pivotal sees that as rain.
  24. John1122
    It's looking like it's going to remain in the NW/amped camp this run.
  25. John1122
    The NAM is more robust with qpf out west so far.
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