John1122

Ironically, the GFS ensembles agree more closely at 500 than the Euro in general, and not with it's OP which is a massive WC trough/EC ridge.

It would be hard to be more different than the GFS is vs the Euro in the long range. The GFS is full torch, the Euro is full freezer.

The GFS is slowly trending south with the system on Dec 2nd/3rd.

UKie/ICON are kind to Clarksville and surrounding areas. Steep gradient from NW Davidson to SE Davidson per the Ukie. The UKIE throws winter AMZ's way too.

Congratulations Jeff. I can't figure out how Tennessee blew that game ahead by 12 and with Kansas having half your team out with fouls and injuries but they managed it.

Shaping up to be another GFS vs Euro battle. The GFS remains amped, the Euro remains mostly ots/suppressed.

Thank you for the clarification!

The late month could be, if everything works well, very epic, even beyond this next two weeks with several potential events. The Euro has the MJO in the low amp/c.o.d into late December/Early January. @GaWx has noted that essentially every low amp pass through 8 has coincided with well BN temps, but that high amp passes were not always cold in the east. East Asia should become more favorable soon, to allow west coast ridging downstream as well.

Looks like it's on the borderline for parts of the area. My current forecast is rain and 34.

The GFS keeps taking a favorable path but it's too warm for those of us in the East, freezing rain to snow mess for the western areas though.

The 12z ICON is getting on board for potential snow for the area. Plateau and west on it, with west Tennessee being the jackpot zone.

The GFS ended up with multiple fronts and a couple of shots of wintery precip for the forum area.

The Canadian may be about to wind one up in the same time frame.

Heck of a winter storm for the mid-state and western areas on the GFS, little too much SE Ridge for the eastern third of the forum that run. Lots of ice and some snow too.

Looks like we may play Kansas in the 3rd place game, due to the margin of victory metric in play.

We know how that story goes. It'll be all over the place over the next week, I'm sure.

Little NW trend on the 12z GFS.

Thanks for all the posts Carvers. I had to take care of some stuff early today to clear up my Tennessee game time. Checking in during commercial breaks.

I do like that we may get to phase 8, and low amp (which is usually the coldest version of 8) and that La Nina is much more likely to produce a +MVP, which means a deep Eastern trough.

I remember a few years ago we passed through phase 8 and it didn't get cold. I believe it was an el Niño, so the mentioned/proposed MVP likely wasn't favorable. I do believe ph 7 is generally normally BN here in winter. The article I linked above noted that phase 7 seemed to be unaffected by the state of the proposed MVP.

Been reading on the MJO today as I wait for the Tennessee game to start. The MJO phase only affects North American temperatures apparently in relation to the proposed in the paper, MVP (multivariate PNA). For instance, in the article I am reading, phase 5 is only warm if the MVP is also negative. This is from that paper. "The MVP is the first combined EOF of 20–100-day OLR, 850-hPa streamfunction, and 200-hPa streamfunction over the North Pacific and North America. The North American temperature patterns that follow each phase of the MJO change with the sign of the MVP. For example, real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 5 usually leads to warm anomalies over eastern North America. This relationship was only found when the MVP was negative, and it was not associated with El Niño or La Niña. RMM phase 8, on the other hand, usually leads to cold anomalies. Those anomalies only occur if the MVP is positive, which happens somewhat more frequently during La Niña years. Composite analyses based on combinations of the MJO and the MVP show that variability in the Pacific jet and its associated wave breaking play a key role in determining whether and how the MJO affects North American temperatures." The article can be found here. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fmwre$002f141$002f11$002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fmwre%24002f141%24002f11%24002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

The Euro might be trying to go at a winter storm for the western areas at 288 this run. It's warmer than the AI but cooler across our forum area with less extremes on either side of the front.

The cold is wild in the midwest. 40 degrees below normal with -10s. Most of our forum area is in the 10 to 20 degrees bn range from the 3rd to the end of the run on the 6th.

The Euro AI has a very potent cold front in early December that really battles the SE ridge. It slowly overtakes the western forum first and it takes 36 hours or so to cross the state. Get some rain to snow in NW Tennessee that slowly spreads eastward and lightens as it goes east. Often times the cold comes a little quicker than models manage it in those situations, but sometimes it just sticks in place.