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Everything posted by John1122
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Looks like the Nino flatlined a little more than expected the last week or two. It's actually weakening considerably in 3-4. It may not quite peak as high as predicted. Regarding the PDO. Nino winters had positive PDO in something like 80 percent of moderate to strong ninos. 2023-24 was the only -pdo winter for one of them in the last 75 years.
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We are less than a week away from met Fall beginning. Looks like extended summer on today's model runs with a very hot first week of September, especially for middle and western parts of the area. With luck they will be too extreme, much like they were with the late month cool shot that had some upper 40s showing up in East Tennessee from around 10 days out. It did get into the mid-50s the last two nights. But 5-8 degrees can be huge either for lows or highs. Hopefully those modeled mid 90s to low 100s verify cooler by 5+ degrees.
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It's a day of mourning here in East Tennessee.
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It rained 1.3 inches here with that storm. Trees down. Leaves everywhere like it's fall. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Really strong storm rolling through the area right now. Glad my power is still on at this point. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I believe it's 110 heat index or 105 air temp. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Storms in Kentucky are around 90 miles north of my but they are putting on a light show. Flashing every second almost. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The DP is 78 right now as we approach the noon hour. This went from a drought to the most humid summer I can recall here. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Had another one myself and now the sun is back out and the humidity is still miserable. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
My DP is 79 right now and I'm not happy at all about it. I saw that there were some 80+ dps around the area. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's something to see, how heavy the rain is when it hits. Absolutely torrential. The sheer amount of thunder this summer is crazy. -
Euro snow mean is AN.
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I'm seeing a lot of drum banging about the Euro seasonal throwing out a lot of +PNA/-NAO looks. AKA the holy grail for snow lovers.
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Very cloudy here so no meteor shower action. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just had another heavy shower, only had one clap of thunder but it was a loud one. Looks like more upstream. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm getting a pre-storm ahead of the line of storms sweeping south. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Picked up 1.5 inches as of midnight. It's still pouring down here. All lightning and thunder seem to have moved out over the last 30 minutes. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's been absolutely pouring down here for the last hour or so. The light show is amazing. Not anything severe so far here. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now that's a cold front! -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
A true gulley washer supreme in the area this afternoon. -
The line of storms were disorganized over my area and it only rained for about 10 minutes. They looked strong just to my northwest and southwest. Once the line passed my area it has rapidly developed and there's a ton of thunder and lighting just to my south, extremely heavy rain too it appears. Not sure if any upstream redevelopment will happen or not today.
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Northeast Tennessee had a massive snowstorm the week before the one here from a similar system. Otherwise that winter was bland but those two events were wild. Wrecked power here for a while.
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Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That storm put down 1.4 inches of rain. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Another extremely heavy rainer just passed over. -
Spring/Summer 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just had a gully washing storm pop over my area and move NNW.
