John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GFS looks slower with the precip at 12z as well.
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The ICON was also much slower with the arrival of precip than other 6z modeling.
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The ICON went Canadian on us. Major ice issues up to 40 and just north of it.
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After watching Florida get nearly a foot last year when the prior state record was 3 inches, truly anything is possible. Maybe it's our turn finally for a crazy snow record.
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I feel like this is a trap. I'm having 2017 ptsd from when the Euro showed 30 inches imby 48 hours out, and I ended up with two inches.
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The EPS is loaded for the forum as well with a mean of 5 to 9 inches across the forum. Due to the nature of ensembles, they will usually be lighter and lower qpf than op models, as invariably some ensembles will be light or even blanks.
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Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.
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Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange.
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Basically along 40 and south has about .5 to .7 freezing rain on top of that 6 to 7 inches of snow.
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Euro warm noses all the way to just north of 40 this run. Lots of ice just below the pink areas.
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Euro is going to be a monster again. 1.25 to 2 inches of QPF from Southern Kentucky to the Northern Alabama/Georgia area.
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Euro has a 1054 hp.
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I think the Canadian is off it's rocker. It's amped up and throwing out 4+ inches of frozen QPF in spots. It gives me 2.5 inches of QPF as sleet. That would be 7.5 inches of sleet. Then it caps it off with an inch of freezing rain.
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All in all. The Canadian is similar to it's 12z run. 1-2+ inches of ZR over a lot of the area, heavy sleet over areas just NW of that zr, and Kentucky wins the snow awards.
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Raining hard far east on the Canadian. Massive ice storm Plateau and west.
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Canadian is very warm.
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Wasn't even over. Southeastern areas 18-20 inches.
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That run 8-10 Memphis area. 10 Nashville 14+ Tri Cities 14-15 Plateau 16-17 Chattanooga 15+ Knoxville.
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The southeast areas get 9-11 inches and then switch to freezing rain.
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Chattanooga getting the biggest of it so far.
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Snow shield is 100-150 miles north of 18z so far.
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The GFS looks like it's more connected to the Baja Low. Likely to look more like the Icon if it continues.
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The ICON was still more progressive than the Euro, but managed to dump 10-12 inches. Chattanooga gets nearly an inch of QPF on there with temps from 26 to 29.
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I've seen more for my area, but never for the entire forum footprint.
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Ratio European. Still rolling state wide at this time.
