John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The GEFS is going to mirror the qpf of the op, but is a little warmer and likely has more mixing issues on some of the members.
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This storm just keeps reminding me of Feb 2nd 1996. It even had that area of extra heavy snow in the central valley of East Tennessee, and was a massive sleet event in Chattanooga.
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The GFS entirely avoided freezing rain in Chattanooga. They did get half a foot of sleet with their snow.
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I never imagined getting 24 inches of snow modeled and being on the low end of accumulation in the area.
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I think the AI GFS fed the GFS the DGEX as part of its takeover.
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Only 40 inches in parts of Sevier co that run.
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Well, I'd talked about going to Mammoth, but it's coming to me.
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The GFS may go for 3 feet.
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The window is currently very narrow now. The UKIE is the northern most, the GFS, still the southern most, even with this 18z run.
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The GFS picked up more Baja wave.
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I had to laugh at them putting Pinecrest on the Campbell County map. It's about 30 houses on a peninsula leading to the lake on the south end of the County.
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NBM for Freezing Rain. They don't issue a sleet one that I know of.
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18z NBM
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That was an I-40 special. Knoxville also had around 1 inch of ice from it. It was snow and sleet here, we had about 6 or 7 inches combined. Southern Kentucky has 12+ inches of snow.
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It seems like they always verify worse than modeled, unfortunately.
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The Euro is still a monster. And maybe the worst winter storm ever here, especially if you include the near 3/4th inch of ice it gives the Southern Valley.
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Yes, it's faster on other sites.
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Even with the freezing rain switch, there are 4-8 inches of snow south of 40 it appears.
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That run, all of Knox switches to freezing rain it appears. It reaches north to around Clinton and to around Johnson City in the east. The Plateau and Midstate and points west are more snow, except towards Alabama border areas.
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Everything to shift south like on the GFS. The Euro warmed enough for rain in Chattanooga and up towards Knoxville for a brief period. That would help some with the ice.
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It's always a war it seems. Especially along I-40.
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The Euro is a massive ice storm 40 and south/east of 81 in East Tennessee by the look of it. 850s further north that run.
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Not sure if it was sleet or zr, but that Euro AI run gave you probably close to 1.2 inches of non-snow QPF over Chattanooga proper. Northern Hamilton was enough to get about double the snow down vs downtown.
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Yes, unfortunately the warm nose is a demon we often fight against, especially the southern valley. Yes, models account for it, but the warm nose on some models is extreme around 800mb to 850mb. There's no way for rates to cool that much of a warm nose.
