John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The warm nose on the 3k runs up along the mountains all the way towards NE Tn on that run. Hopefully that doesn't happen but it seems to have been a thorn for several years now.
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3k NAM is less patchy than the 12k and is a major event for many of us. Unfortunately misses the far west but nails the midstate. Heavy snow falling still on it at hr 60 when it ends.
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The NAM laid down heavy snow over parts of the forum but it peters out as it works east. Oddly blotchy pattern with the snow that isn't terribly likely to happen but the general run was similar to the RGEM runs from yesterday.
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The NAM is coming in firing to western areas of the forum.
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Depressing Euro run, if looking for snow. Rgem keeps it's decent snowfall set up. The Euro AI had some hope. The 06z gfs wasn't great for most of the forum. It's crazy to me that we see the looks at 500 that have been popping up and we are struggling to find modeled snow events. These looks would be productive throughout most of our climate history.
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The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.
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The GEM drops the energy in a couple hundred miles west of the GFS it looks like. Further east, no go, further west, better for us.
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The GEM followed the RGEM but is even more robust.
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Thank you all. When you get older things you shrugged off as a young man really hit hard.
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This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The EURO AI was onboard for a widespread 3-5 inches as well. It's usually super Dr. No. I think the Canadian lost it first, then the Euro AI lost it, with of course, the GFS holding on the longest. -
Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event.
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Without snow cover we won't get terribly cold. So there's that.
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The energy was futher west on the icon so it was better for us. Then it hammers the PV our way and we get high ratio snow showers. The GFS has folded to the Euro on wave one and wave two looks like it's gonna be weak as well.
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Euro is just nothing for either wave now. I personally prefer mild weather to dry cold. If I'm paying large heating costs I at least want some snow.
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My zone forecast from MRX now days "Moderate Snow Accumulation" Wednesday night. That has historically been 2-4 inches. Thanks for all the well wishes. I'm feeling better now than I was earlier.
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Had a dusting earlier today. Quickly melted away. May be coming down with the flu. Been going to middle and high school basketball games this week and that's rolling the dice on a good week.
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The EPS also improved vs 12z.
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Its not so much that it loses it, it's that the low is further north than the GFS so the precip is too. It did move more to the south and west vs 12z with the slight step towards the GFS.
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That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are.
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Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on.
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Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS.
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Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though.
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The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.
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Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same.
