John1122

.30 rain today, misty and foggy this afternoon. High was at midnight, the temp has been steady around 45 this afternoon.

The 18z GFS around D11 had a 1-3 inch snow for the Plateau/SWVa with more along the mountains. Around .5 to 1 inch for most of the mid-state. One of the first shots fired for accumulating snow across the lower elevations. The 12z had it but over a smaller area. Basically less than a half inch over Campbell/Scott/SE Ky/SWVa and heavier snow in the higher eastern mountains. I doubt it will still be there on the 0z.

1.1 inches of rain today, 3.6 inches this week so far.

I don't expect to see anything. My low is supposed to be 45 and thats basically the high tomorrow as well. Looks like snow will be 4500+ feet.

Another chilly day with drenching rain.

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today.

There tends to be a little more variable outcomes with warmer Novembers than colder ones. Most warmer Novs that had cold/snowy winters to follow tended to be in the +1 to +1.5 range. Last year was a rare exception of Nov being +5 and we had a very cold January. Winter's truly greatest hits here though, were BN Novembers as a rule.

It's not going to happen every time but looking back from the 1930s-2021ish it was about 60-65 percent of the time. Warm Novembers, more often than not, led to unremarkable winters, but not always. Cold Novembers went on to feature major outbreaks of winter weather at a higher than usual rate, but not always. 2013-14, and 2014-15 were both BN Novembers and both great winters (if you like snow/cold outbreaks). Nov 2015, 2016 were well AN and the winter of 16 was good but 17 was blah. Nov 2021 was well BN. 2022 was very cold/snowy, especially from my area and west across our forum region. I was -4 for Jan 2022 with 15+ inches of snow for the month. Going back, Nov 1995 was -4 here, Jan/Feb 96 were epic. Nov 1993 was -1.5, Jan featured heavy snow, ice, and -15 type temps, Nov 1984 was -3, Jan 85 was legendary, and Feb was great too, Nov 1976 was -9, Jan/Feb '77 were non-stop winter here, Nov 1967 was -3, Jan and Feb were both well BN, Feb -11. Nov 1959 was -2, snowiest winter in Tn history Jan-March '60. Almost every epic winter we've had in the last 70 years had a cold Nov, except three. Nov 2019 was cold, and winter 2019-20 was a dud, so a cold November isn't a lock, it's a noticeable lean though. There are generally more cases of a good winter following a warmer Nov than a dud following a cold November, at least imby.

1.25 inches of rain since yesterday at 7pm. Still coming down. 49 degrees.

29.7 this morning. Oneida was 29 as well. Tazewell in Claiborne County was 30 and Tri-Cities was 31 and so was Maynardville, Norris was 32. I assume that MRX just decided not to do the frost/freeze protocol this year. JKL and Greenville had appropriate freeze/frost warnings out overnight.

32 this morning after a forecast low of 38.

Verified much cooler than model guidance again this morning. MRX low forecast was 40, it was 35 and frosty.

Outside the mountains snow showers showing up in fantasy land on the GFS. Obviously likely to be gone next run, but definitely a sign several runs in a row of very cold air for the time of year, entering the East for November. Never a sure thing, but as I've found and said before, cold Novembers often lead to memorable winter weather events in the following winter. It's a better than 60 percent of the time that it happens, so a decent statistical increase.

Climo wins again. Models were suggesting no frost here until November but we'd never made it past October 20th in the last 60 years. Sure enough, 34 and a heavy frost this morning.

Extreme winds today, my power went at 2:30 and just came back on a few minutes ago. .85 rain, and the temp is down to 45 already.

This frontal passage is truly a potent one. It's windy as heck, trees are down, sideways rain and the temp has fallen from 62 to 53 in short order.

Leaf color has hit the fast forward button all of a sudden the last 48 hours. A large maple that turns bright golden has went from fully green to 2/3rds turned since Wednesday.

Finally seeing 30s show up in my point forecast. Not sure if it will frost next week but I suspect it will on the day I'm predicted to get to 37. I'm usually cooler than forecast in the bowl I live in.

The NOAA winter forecast came out today, and not surprisingly, it is essentially copy/paste La Nina. AN slightly favored for the Eastern Valley, Western 2/3rds of the forum, equal chances/near normal. BN Pac NW to Great Lakes. As noted, weak Ninas are somewhat less likely to follow "typical" Nina patterns. That could mean AN for the whole forum, BN for it etc.

October was very dry, with around an inch of precip, and well AN for the first 3 weeks for the most part with one short cool snap, it had some highs in the 80s. The last week was cold but warmed up right around Halloween. It ended up around +3. November was -4 here. Late month rain to around 1.5 inches of snow. A couple of days with highs in the 20s and lows in the low 10s by late November. November started almost 20 degrees AN on the 1st and it was in the upper 70s on the second but a front moved through and we fell into the 30s that night. November was a little wetter with just over 4 inches of precip.

Very cold with a few snow events in January and a big one just before Valentines Day for most of the forum. January was fairly dry here with less than half the normal precip but we had snow falling on 12 different days in January with two accumulating events. 2-4 inches late month was the biggest with around 1 to 2 inches early month. Had two bouts of subzero cold in early and late January, teens for highs a few days.

Color here is just stuck on not much. Most years I'm getting close to a peak by mid month and at times leaves are mostly gone by Halloween. This year, we had some reds in early September but very little progress since then.

A channel called Life in the Eastern Sierra.

We aren't nearly as warm as October 1919 at least. The coolest temperature that entire month in Knoxville was 54 (Knox recorded 50 yesterday morning) and it was almost 9 degrees above normal. It was a complete dud of a non-winter in Knoxville in 1919-1920.

We may break a record here for latest frost/latest lows in the 30s ever. There's a chance, right now that we hit the 30s on October 20th. If we don't, that's probably going to break that record (likely) as I looked back on the last 60 Octobers and October 20th was the latest we've ever been hitting the 30s imby. My low for October is 44 so far. In that 60 years we never didn't have a frost in the month of October. Both of those records are on the table looking at modeling.