John1122

Color here is just stuck on not much. Most years I'm getting close to a peak by mid month and at times leaves are mostly gone by Halloween. This year, we had some reds in early September but very little progress since then.

A channel called Life in the Eastern Sierra.

We aren't nearly as warm as October 1919 at least. The coolest temperature that entire month in Knoxville was 54 (Knox recorded 50 yesterday morning) and it was almost 9 degrees above normal. It was a complete dud of a non-winter in Knoxville in 1919-1920.

We may break a record here for latest frost/latest lows in the 30s ever. There's a chance, right now that we hit the 30s on October 20th. If we don't, that's probably going to break that record (likely) as I looked back on the last 60 Octobers and October 20th was the latest we've ever been hitting the 30s imby. My low for October is 44 so far. In that 60 years we never didn't have a frost in the month of October. Both of those records are on the table looking at modeling.

Saw another Met who put out a video about winter, he compared it to 2013-2014 as one his top analogs. That's two different people I've seen make the comparison. He noted current sea ice and snow cover were above the last couple of years and similar to 2013-14 and that the Pacific was similar.

The mid-month cool shot is basically up in smoke now. Relentless AN with a deeply BN west looks like it's going to be the basic pattern for at least a few more weeks.

I honestly think a lot of it is just built into modeling based on ENSO. I was reading the discussion of the 2024-25 winter forecast from NOAA and it's essentially all based on La Nina that they had forecast to begin in winter, and defaulted to what they would say was typical La Nina 500mb patterns which was AN across most of the East. But they admit during the discussion that weaker ENSO events have far less predictability, and that the forecast models incorporate the much more stable strong ENSO results at times and interpret them in a broadbrush fashion. As always, they said the main drivers last winter, PNA/AO/NAO/MJO were simply not able to be forecast more than 3 weeks in advance.

I really can't recall the last time a seasonal map didn't show AN temperatures at long leads. Even when we ice boxed last January and were solidly BN for Jan 2024, I'd be surprised if modeling around this time of year didn't show AN temps for January both years.

Obviously taken with Mount Everest made of salt, but I saw someone post the euro seasonal and it was basically normal to AN snowfall across the region. More AN than normal, at least based on 1991-2020 30 year normals. 6-12 inches along and south of 40, 12-20 inches north of 40 into SE KY and SW Virginia.

Still looking like the first major cold front of fall will pass just after mid-month with the first frost/freeze possible around that timeframe.

The GFS is waffling on a strong cold front mid-month. Sometimes it has it, others it doesn't. 0z had frost in the area by the 16th. 12z is torchy.

Went to a soccer game down in LaFollette at CCHS and it was delayed for half an hour because of lightning. Didn't rain at the house during that time, but it's been raining a decent shower for the last 20 minutes at least.

These overtime games are stressing me to the max, but it's not as bad as it was a few years ago now that you have basically two losses to play with each season. That said, even though Miss State is much improved, we would have won probably be 3 scores if the calls were correct on the pi's and we could catch a football while wide open.

The rain was prominent today in the eastern valley. It developed there and redeveloped a couple of times. I went through a heavy rain shower with lightning aplenty in West knox around 8:45.

I keep seeing 2013-14 as an analog. Saw a story a couple days ago that said the North Pacific especially behaving very similarly.

Today/tonight's rain, which was the highest chance/flood hazard day, is a flop. It didn't rain enough to wet the road under trees here. There may be more upstream but we'll see how heavy it actually is.

Added 1.1 inches of additional rain from midnight through early morning.

Heavy rain starting here now, looks juiced upstream. Had around 1.3 inches overnight last night.

It's now rained about all night long. Thankful for it, as leaf and fire season approach.

That round finally held together and gave me a good hour of rain.

Two days in a row. A heavy rainer made it to Scott co then fell apart with redevelopment to the East of here. Hopefully the upstream stuff doesn't do the same thing

I was about 2 miles from 2 inches just to my NW but didn't get enough to settle the dust here. Then it rain 2+ just a few miles south of me too. Hopefully we all have a wet week. I never want to go into October dry. Leaves were raining down yesterday with the wind off the rain.

Really got shafted on that round of rain. It rained all afternoon to my north and west by a few miles. Then it kind of split and redeveloped just to my south and east. I got about 100 drops so far.

The supposed current heat has not been a factor here. My high today was 80.4, the first day above 80. It was 54 this morning. Chilled the house with the windows open. Haven't had my AC on in almost 30 days now. Basically a late summer miracle.

That was a tough loss. We've not had such a painful FG miss since 2010 vs Alabama, and that one was blocked. Team looked better than I expected on offense, but man, gotta make that kick.