John1122

Mammoth has gotten 28 inches as of 4pm local time. The forecast through Friday. "Tonight Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south southwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 35 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible. Friday Snow showers before 1pm, then snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible."

Mammoth got over a foot of snow in a couple of hours overnight. Up to 100 inches expected in the area. I like to watch it, but when they're getting buried, we usually are waiting on the pattern to change.

A true PNA will basically always work for cold here. It means drier weather in our area but as Jeff has noted, below normal precip doesn't mean it's not good for snow. Above normal precip here usually means the warm flow from the Pac or Gulf is coming, and all the issues they cause.

We will see if it holds, but the Aleutian ridge is basically eliminated by the end of the Euro run and it looks like a +PNA is building. If that happens, January 10th and beyond could be plenty of Pacific driven good times. Traditionally when it collapses extreme winter periods of 2 to 3 weeks can happen.

Here's an article about the snow leading up to the ice storm. This was a southern slider that got all of us, and heavier snow fell into Alabama. Birmingham got 6 inches. Nashville 5 inches. Memphis 5 inches. Along and north of 40 in East Tennessee it was around 2-3 inches. But we'd gotten snow a couple days before this and it snowed in the NW flow area for days after it. We had 2 inches on the 10th, .5 the 11th, .75 the 12th, frigid with a high of 3 on the 11th and 10 on the 12th, lows below 0, the system from the article below came with that airmass in place, we got 3 inches of snow on the 13th, 1.5 on the 14th, .75 the 15th, .5 the 16th, .5 the 17th, as subzero cold squeezed out every drop of moisture, the ice storm on the 18th with .85 freezing rain. I remember smashed cedar trees that lined our driveway, and powerlines sagging towards the ground. It was solid ice on deeply frozen ground. "January 14th, 1982 The epic Winter of '82 stunned the Deep South and East Coast Thursday with a new round of snow and icestorms -- the latest chapter in a continuing siege of severe weather blamed for more than 200 deaths. Blizzards again threatened the Midwest. Dazed southerners suffered through their second storm in 72 hours - a 6-inch deep blanket of snow and ice. New Yorkers barely had time to dry off their snow shovels before turning around to face the remnants of a second storm that began its attack on the city late Thursday. New snows from 3 to 6 inches were forecast on top of 4 to 7 inches of snow that hit late Wednesday before moving up the coast. At least 216 deaths have been blamed on the weather that set 20th Century records for low temperatures. The back-to-back winter storms claimed at least 60 lives in the South alone. In New York two teenage youths fell through the ice-covered surface of Brooklyn's Prospect Park and drowned Thursday when they became trapped under a large chunk of ice. Two other youths also fell through the ice but were rescued. Seven police officers were injured in the rescue attempt. A St. Louis police officer examining a parked car covered with snow and ice opened the door to check for a vehicle identification number and found a body frozen behind the steering wheel. And an employee of New York's Sanitation Department suffered a broken leg when he was run over by his plow after his vehicle struck an object in the road and threw him from the cab. The cruel storms have taken their toll of crops and poultry items, leaving consumers with expected price increases for citrus fruits, vegetables, eggs and chickens. Snow fell in north Florida Thursday, but southern portions of the state were deluged by tropical thunderstorms and winds whipping up to 60 mph. A tornado cut a path a mile long and 100 yards wide in Fort Myers causing an estimated $300,000 in damages to homes. No serious injuries were reported. Furious storms wreaked havoc on Massachusetts, dumping up to a foot of snow in some areas. Boston had almost a foot of snow and strong northerly winds were whipping the accumulations into near-blizzard conditions. All along the east coast, especially southeastern New England, the second half of the storm was expected to hit during the night with forecasters calling for up to another foot of snow, gale-force winds and freezing temperatures. 'This one looks like a big storm with gale winds and considerable blowing and drifting snow expected,' a weather service spokesman said. Connecticut received 6 to 8 inches of new snow, Rhode Island got 8 inches in northern portions of the state and about 6 inches in southern areas. Higher prices for eggs and poultry loom on the horizon for consumers as a result of the bitter cold weather that froze much of the South. 'We're in some pretty tough times as far as poultry growing is concerned,' said Lionel Barton, a poultry expert with the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service. Many baby chicks died in the cold weather and the hens that lived are laying fewer eggs. Florida citrus growers estimated their losses at $500 billion. But in New York Richard Norton, a regional fruit specialist with the Monroe County Cooperative Extension, said a gradual cooling around the Finger Lakes and western New York area last fall helped prepare fruit trees and grapes for this week's subzero readings. Six inches of snow fell on parts of southern Maryland and state police reported 4 inches of snowfall on the lower Eastern Shore. Up to 6 inches of snow fell over Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, making already slippery highways treacherous. An estimated 1 million people were left without power because of ice buildups on utility lines and trees -- 750,000 of those were in Alabama. The weather did little to keep thieves in tow. Atlanta police said 19 people forced to walk home or seek shelter Tuesday night were robbed and dozens of motorists who abandoned their cars after the first snowstorm returned to find their batteries, radios and other valuables had been looted. One Atlanta woman barely made it to the hospital in time to deliver her baby. 'I was worried,' said Gretchen Rehlin, mother of a new daughter. She was forced to walk the last half mile to the hospital because of stalled traffic. 'But my husband was more worried because he was the one who would have had to deal with it (the delivery)."

There's a good reason, it was nearly 70 by the end of January. No idea where that snow storm report came from. The next snow event imby was February 5th/6th timeframe, with 2 inches. Then 1.5 around the 10th.

Looks like January 1982 is showing up as an analog at 500mb according to Webb. January 1982 was the year it snowed basically every day for a week. The biggest was 3 inches, but it would snow 1/2 to 1 inch almost every day. We had accumulating snowfall on 9 of 10 days. Even Knoxville recorded 1.5 inches 3 days in a row. It was capped off by an epic ice storm on January 18th, that the NWS records for some reason, ignore for Knoxville. It says Knoxville got .21 qpf of ice in the "official" record. This is from a KNS article about January 18th/19th 1982. "That Jan. 18th date was all about ice. The mother of all freezing rains turned the entire area into a skating rink with ice an inch or more thick in most places. Law enforcement reported more than 150 wrecks. Power failures showed up across the grid. Schools and businesses were shut down. Downtown hotels filled up with ice-locked workers unable to get home. The less fortunate spent the night in their cars unable to do anything but spin their wheels. The National Weather Service personnel called it the worst ice storm they'd seen in decades. Stories abounded of people latching up their ice skates for a trip to the store or literally crawling from their cars to get back into their homes and offices." Temperatures in the -10s here just before that ice storm.

I think we'd all take this, with single digit cold pressing in behind the second clipper.

The Canadian is just full blown winter, snow, ice box cold before New Years and after. +PNA looks beginning to appear and downstream we win. Old fashioned clipper/Siberian express on there.

The Canadian is into the vodka for cold to close the month. Dry as a bone unfortunately.

Keep in mind, a lot of what Webb talks about is in regards to how things will affect areas East of the Apps. For me, I'm certain that the Aleutian high will break down, they all do. Where we go when it does, I don't know.

It usually means our weather is winter warm, but I can at least live vicariously when they get two 3+ feet snows 3x a week.

There's a wild temperature gradient across my area right now. I just came home from Knoxville, and dropped my friend and his wife off in Caryville, it was 57 at his house. It's 31 at my house. I live 10 miles NE of him.

The 0z GFS is a heatwave, but possible light at the end of the tunnel as the Aleutian high collapses finally at the end of the run. They tend to end that way, just beastly and then they go away. It's ending on that run around January 5th, which would be close to it's average 32 day lifecycle.

Cousin at 2400 feet in an exposed area said that at 10:50 they recorded a gust at 75mph then the aneometer broke off. Had some reports of roofs blown off. Huge trees are down too. Wide spread power outages.

No sooner had I said that than thunder boomed. TIMs activated. Of course this may end as snow flakes towards morning.

That like blitzed through here. No thunder but incredible wind and heavy rain.

That was one of the most severe winter events for the entire Tennessee Valley, ever. Huge ice storm, snow close to the blizzard of 93 levels, and cold close to 1985 levels.

The Euro bombs Northern half of NC and most of Virginia with a monster New Years snow, due to a clipper that rains on us and goes full Miller B on them, after it develops off the coast it spins in place giving them a mega storm. The GFS looks like it may have been loading up to send something our way by the 3rd. Too far out to take seriously of course, but possibly a sign that the NAO is working a bit and use getting scraps while east of the Apps would fit in with the pattern we've seen as far as precip goes.

The ridge/trough orientation has just sucked for basically the entire forum. Especially the west side. It's been cold and mostly dry. We got clipped by a couple of clippers in the East. If the ridge had been oriented into a +PNA configuration, those clippers that buried the Midwest to Virginia would have been rolling across Tennessee. Northern Kentucky has gotten hit a lot. Louisville Kentucky already has about a foot in the first 15 days of met winter. With a +PNA that would have had that active northern stream, which is common in La Nina, over our forum area.

Yes, I'm surrounded on all sides by 2500ft+ peaks.

I'm verifying much cooler than forecast lately. Last night my predicted low was 21, it was 15 this morning. Predicted high was 45, it was 41. Predicted low of 32 tonight, it's already 26.

That NAO depicted above really strengthens around Dec 28th on the CFS.

Use with caution, but the CFS fired off a big -NAO and cold underneath a few days post Christmas.

You're welcome, the snow was on the 20th, instead of the 21st, I mistyped. The Arctic air just wrung every bit of moisture from the air throughout that day, the temp fell from 32 to -15 on the 20th. We see big drops like that when we start in the 60s, but it's rare to see one when we start in the 20s/30s.