John1122

I don't know why it's so far behind. I'd heard it was one cycle, but they used the Euro from 3 cycles back, and the GEFS from 2 back, plus the SREF/RAP and a few others. I'm not even sure if they used the NAM at all, or the OP Euro or OP GFS.

It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today.

The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data.

The Euro looks good. Headed to a basketball game. No school but the tournament rolls on.

It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me.

That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble.

Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him.

The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS.

I believe the HRRR and RAP do, possibly the Rufus and FV3 too.

They were made available to emergency management offices.

The GFS is slightly down with totals. Basically today the low end models have went up, the high end have came down, and they are meeting in the middle.

I will also credit the WVLT met, as he said expect snow showers in the extreme cold that isn't showing up on models. This will be one of those situations where the dgz is probably around 2500 feet and up so snow will fall and it will seem to come from nothing on radar.

Whatever model wvlt used showed 4 inches for my area, 5 for Knoxville, and 6-8 east of there.

Yes.

It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF.

Johnson City is 93 percent for over 4 and about 80 percent for oved 6.

Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent.

The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z.

The ICON was a tick better. 2.8 inches at 12z is 3 inches at 18z in Knoxville for instance.

It happened a few years ago with a miller A system that went just enough south that my area got around 2-3 inches but just east and south of here was 4-6+ inches.

You can check here and see what was used for what forecast for the NBM at a particular hour. The models above were from me selecting 6hr snowfall at hour 42. https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

Point and click are basically the NBM fed into a forecast graphic computer system. These are the model runs that went into the 18z NBM for snowfall at hour 42. So it's made from mostly ensemble members, short range models, and hasn't incorporated any data from the 12z/06z Euro at all that I can see. Model Date Cycle Projection Valid Date ECMWFE P1 20260129 0 60 2026013112 GEFS P27 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P26 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P25 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P24 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P23 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P22 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P21 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P20 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P2 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P28 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P19 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P17 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P16 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P15 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P14 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P13 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P12 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P11 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P10 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P1 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P18 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P29 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P3 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P30 20260129 6 54 2026013112 SREF ARW P6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 RAPX 20260129 15 45 2026013112 NAMH 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HRRRX 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HIRESW FV3 20260129 12 48 2026013112 GFS 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P9 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P8 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P7 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P6 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P5 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P4 20260129 6 54 2026013112 ECMWFE P9 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF ARW 20260129 12 48 2026013112 ECMWFE P8 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P6 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P28 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P27 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P26 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P25 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P24 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P23 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P22 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P21 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P20 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P29 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P2 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P18 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P17 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P16 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P15 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P14 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P13 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P12 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P11 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P10 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P19 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P3 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P30 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P31 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P50 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P5 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P49 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P48 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P47 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P46 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P45 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P44 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P43 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P42 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P41 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P40 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P4 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P39 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P38 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P37 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P36 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P35 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P34 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P33 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P32 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P7 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF MEM2 20260129 12 48 2026013112

The NAM and 3k struggles at times by overemphasizing terrain features. That leads to wild looking precip output maps. They are especially prone to it outside 24 hours.

Really poorly.

Weather Next/Google AI at 12z was nearly a carbon copy of 06z.