John1122

The 18z HRRR tries to bring the clipper in a little further west initially with a band of snow from Scott Co Tn, through to about Maynardville and points east.

This was his quote about it. I could be wrong as you two know much more about it than me.

From what I understand, the ABM one there is the actual verified MJO plot, and that there's a 3 day lag time for it per Gawx. I believe the GFS there is likely a model estimate.

The forecasts are still mostly favorable for it, but they are all starting it a little off where it actually is now by the look of it. Sadly, even with the favorable forecasts we still manage to get warm on models. Not sure if it's a headfake by them or if it's the MPNA from the paper I linked last month, that says 8 isn't cold of the MPNA is negative.

The main thing we can hope for is the shake-up isn't 6+ weeks, and that whatever happens after that, the Pacific is more favorable going forward. The current pattern is the Ohio Valley dream, and the Central Virginia snow globe, while we get stray flakes and glancing dustings. If Pacific had been a little more cooperative we'd have been clippered to 10+ inches by now.

It's just barely into 6, hopefully it's looping back towards 7,8. The beautiful pass through 8-1 the models had could have been great. It made it there (to 6) a few days ago and models started blowtorching the lower 48 around that time. Which is basically phase 6 in a nutshell in winter. Hopefully Canada doesn't get scoured of cold. The snowpack north of us will likely be gone by Christmas if modeling is correct. I'm ready for a reset anyway, I think winter will make a comeback some time in January, unless we go full 1989-90.

The MJO has indeed been in Ph 6 for a few days now. Hopefully it doesn't stay long. I suspect it's behind the massive warm ups we keep seeing modeled. Either way, the forecast looks bleak in the long range again. Not that it has been spectacular for our area really.

Got a dusting of snow, had a couple of decent showers. 31 degrees.

Looks like some decent snow showers moving across SE Kentucky, as with every single event in December, I'm likely too far west unless radar just isn't picking up anything NW of me, but basically SE Kentucky, Claiborne and points East may be in good shape if the Cumberlands don't dry those out.

Snow is falling here currently. Very light. MRX did just put out an SPS that isolated 1 to 2 inch totals are possible. Currently 36 degrees. I was in Knoxville all evening so no idea what may have happened while I was gone. Except strong winds have blown some stuff around.

We needed the Pac jet to help pop the PNA but it's not worked out that way.

The Pacific hates us. It seems to always find a way to screw up everything for us.

The way it looks now, we may be dodging severe weather instead of snow. It'll be wild if we are -5 to -10 for half of December but my snowiest day of the season is November 10th, but that looks to be the case barring a miracle.

Rough looks on modeling again overnight and this morning. Between that and what I'm seeing about January, we may be in for a lot of misery this winter.

Griteater was talking about the MJO, saying that while it's in Phase 8 per RMM, a KW/convection area flares in the Indo/Pacific and causes it to act like it's in Phase 6 through around December 12th-20th, before clearing and returning to a phase 8 look. That's likely the culprit behind the big warm up being modeled.

It snowed here for about 30 minutes around 10 to 10:30 this morning. MJO is active with KW in 6, so the weather is reflecting that on modeling. Not sure what pattern reshuffle we will get, but unless we can get the EPO to move East, and get that death vortex out of the GOA we are going to be watching systems fly by to the north of us. Good news for the NE Kentucky, Va and north. On runs where the ridge in the west sharpens and Western Canada goes from -PNA to +PNA the cold gets unleashed.

Looks like the cold for next weekend is basically up in smoke now. The 00z GFS is now 20 degrees warmer than it was for next weekend than it was last night at 00z. What looked promising somewhat is a dumpster fire for winter chances here into Christmas, if the models are correct. Deep Gulf of Alaska low flooding Pacific air across the lower 48, hostile Pacific, hostile Atlantic. It doesn't get much worse than that run.

We are going to need some kind of shake up to the pattern to see widespread snow. I don't remember seeing many ridges out west that were sprawled out so far west to east vs south to north. That's pretty much killing our chances of having a storm track that works for us. Nothing is going on in the southern stream really, and clippers are shunted too far NE for us due to that ridge alignment. Unfortunately the PNA is forecast to remain - for the next 14 days with the west/east ridge. We are going for 10 days of mostly dry weather across 95 percent of the forum area with less than .10 qpf falling. As soon as that pattern breaks a little it will warm up and rain, no doubt.

We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.

To me, it's the shape of the ridge in the West. It's not been sharp S to N oriented so the cold hasn't been pressing south, more West to East. The GFS sharpens the Western Ridge and the cold crashes south.

The GFS is just ridiculously cold and dry as a bone. Shades of December '83 all over again.

The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.

It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.

Sleet and snow mixed here in town.