John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip from 63-87.
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The UKIE, which has been the furthest east, was probably 150-200 miles west vs 12z.
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Canadian, while nothing for us, went from off the coast to precip well west into NC from 12z to 0z.
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I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track.
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The Rufus now has the Sunday system hitting East Tennessee.
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0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft.
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The 0z NAMs are similar to 18z with precip, but they were also warmer. Rain across our area but snow on the Gulf coast would be the ultimate weather slap in the face.
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It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row.
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ICON is also a mostly rain event. Frustrating to say the least.
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18z is really warm as well, at this point, it wouldn't shock me if it warmed up and rained.
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It's the model that is supposed to eventually replace the HRRR and NAM.
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The RUFUS has the same moisture feed as the NAM but is very warm, and it rains over the entire area.
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The warm nose on the 3k runs up along the mountains all the way towards NE Tn on that run. Hopefully that doesn't happen but it seems to have been a thorn for several years now.
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3k NAM is less patchy than the 12k and is a major event for many of us. Unfortunately misses the far west but nails the midstate. Heavy snow falling still on it at hr 60 when it ends.
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The NAM laid down heavy snow over parts of the forum but it peters out as it works east. Oddly blotchy pattern with the snow that isn't terribly likely to happen but the general run was similar to the RGEM runs from yesterday.
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The NAM is coming in firing to western areas of the forum.
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Depressing Euro run, if looking for snow. Rgem keeps it's decent snowfall set up. The Euro AI had some hope. The 06z gfs wasn't great for most of the forum. It's crazy to me that we see the looks at 500 that have been popping up and we are struggling to find modeled snow events. These looks would be productive throughout most of our climate history.
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The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.
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The GEM drops the energy in a couple hundred miles west of the GFS it looks like. Further east, no go, further west, better for us.
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The GEM followed the RGEM but is even more robust.
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Thank you all. When you get older things you shrugged off as a young man really hit hard.
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This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The EURO AI was onboard for a widespread 3-5 inches as well. It's usually super Dr. No. I think the Canadian lost it first, then the Euro AI lost it, with of course, the GFS holding on the longest. -
Of course the Euro has another near gulf coast snow event.
