John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The NAM at the end show a classic winter storm set up for our area. A big 1045H in SE Minnesota with subzero cold under it. Precip sliding West to East. The sleet area is literally about 1 degree in the upper levels from being snow. With no flow off the gulf at that hour, it should be snow.
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That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events.
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Odds are the Euro doesn't triple phase at 0z and we are closer to the last 10 runs of it.
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The lp track is 90 miles north and 2mb stronger at 18 vs 12z and that wrecks thermals. Ops are prone to large movements still at this range. The AI usually us extremely steady inside D5 and it barely changed at all. Just a small wobble.
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Triple phasers happen about once every 10 to 15 years. Let's hope this one isn't it.
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So the Lakes low strikes even this.
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I take solace that the AI isn't remotely as warm as the Euro OP.
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It's hard to fathom a world where the Euro folds to the Canadian.
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It runs a tongue of mixing issues up the edge of the Apps, and into southern valley.
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AI Euro was definitely north with more mixing issues.
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I take that back about the GEFS, it's going to probably approach a 10 inch snow depth down to the Georgia line. Not sure if it's blending sleet in or not though.
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The GEFS is going to mirror the qpf of the op, but is a little warmer and likely has more mixing issues on some of the members.
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This storm just keeps reminding me of Feb 2nd 1996. It even had that area of extra heavy snow in the central valley of East Tennessee, and was a massive sleet event in Chattanooga.
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The GFS entirely avoided freezing rain in Chattanooga. They did get half a foot of sleet with their snow.
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I never imagined getting 24 inches of snow modeled and being on the low end of accumulation in the area.
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I think the AI GFS fed the GFS the DGEX as part of its takeover.
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Only 40 inches in parts of Sevier co that run.
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Well, I'd talked about going to Mammoth, but it's coming to me.
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The GFS may go for 3 feet.
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The window is currently very narrow now. The UKIE is the northern most, the GFS, still the southern most, even with this 18z run.
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The GFS picked up more Baja wave.
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I had to laugh at them putting Pinecrest on the Campbell County map. It's about 30 houses on a peninsula leading to the lake on the south end of the County.
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NBM for Freezing Rain. They don't issue a sleet one that I know of.
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18z NBM
