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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The GFS has a 986 low bombing just inside Hatteras or over it. 4-12 inches has fallen over East Tennessee by that point. Looks like it pulls away NE rather than heading up the coast.
  2. John1122
    RGEM takes the ULL from Memphis to North Alabama, and it's stronger than it was at 0z. Still snowing over the eastern half of the state with 1-3 inches down from Nashville to Cookeville, and 3-5 inches down from Cookeville eastward.
  3. John1122
    RGEM looks like it's winding the vort up tighter further NW as well vs 0z. The ICON, while not quite enough for most of us, jumped west 200 miles.
  4. John1122
    Ratios are 17 to 20:1 on the NAM across the state as snow is falling. Just south of Nashville, and in NE Tn from earlier snow, 4-6 inches have fallen at 84 and it's still snowing over the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area. Alabama and Georgia are in the game.
  5. John1122
    In response, we are getting nammed, almost state wide by 78. Looks like the RGEM.
  6. John1122
    The NAM is winding our energy up over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri at 06z, 72hrs, at 78 at 0z it wasn't quite wound yet and was over SE Missouri.
  7. John1122
    A car top duster underway outside currently, 21 degrees.
  8. John1122
    Granted, I should probably look to my avatar.
  9. John1122
    The Euro went from barely touching the Eastern mountains to this.
  10. John1122
    The trend map for the Euro is west, west, west, west. I'm not sure if it can go much further west or not.
  11. John1122
    Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier. Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties. The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in!
  12. John1122
    Thought it was worse but went back and looked at 18z, the 0z Euro has about .05 to .1 more QPF than the 18z had. I went from .10 to .20, other areas in the east also improved.
  13. John1122
    The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. Euro is winding up well west of prior runs.
  14. John1122
    UKIE remains a "no".
  15. John1122
    The Canadian is about in line with the Euro Ai now, once ratio'd.
  16. John1122
    For the eastern border counties, it would be an all-time contender. 12-18 inches of powder that falls with temps in the teens or colder.
  17. John1122
    It ended up exactly where the RGEM was at 84 and just sends steady, high ratio moderate snow from Nashville East. 2-3 inches in the mid-state, 5-8+ as you hit the Plateau and head east.
  18. John1122
    The GFS is basically a carbon copy of the RGEM at 500mb, but not quite at the surface. Could be the higher resolution of the RGEM coming into play.
  19. John1122
    Through 66, the GFS may look even better than the RGEM.
  20. John1122
    So far, the GFS is slightly west at 500mb vs 18z.
  21. John1122
    RGEM is winding up the vort over Memphis that run.
  22. John1122
    RGEM gets almost the entire state involved and may have been going to go for at least a very decent event.
  23. John1122
    The RGEM is a little west vs 18z, which looked pretty good itself.
  24. John1122
    The earlier/further west the ull pinches off, the better our odds of getting some decent qpf thrown our way. Unfortunately, the ICON does it over Virgina and we get nothing. Fortunately, it's the ICON.
  25. John1122
    The NAM was still a little east with the vort vs the 18z GFS that did so well.
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