John1122

Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier. Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties. The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in!

Thought it was worse but went back and looked at 18z, the 0z Euro has about .05 to .1 more QPF than the 18z had. I went from .10 to .20, other areas in the east also improved.

The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. Euro is winding up well west of prior runs.

UKIE remains a "no".

The Canadian is about in line with the Euro Ai now, once ratio'd.

For the eastern border counties, it would be an all-time contender. 12-18 inches of powder that falls with temps in the teens or colder.

It ended up exactly where the RGEM was at 84 and just sends steady, high ratio moderate snow from Nashville East. 2-3 inches in the mid-state, 5-8+ as you hit the Plateau and head east.

The GFS is basically a carbon copy of the RGEM at 500mb, but not quite at the surface. Could be the higher resolution of the RGEM coming into play.

Through 66, the GFS may look even better than the RGEM.

So far, the GFS is slightly west at 500mb vs 18z.

RGEM is winding up the vort over Memphis that run.

RGEM gets almost the entire state involved and may have been going to go for at least a very decent event.

The RGEM is a little west vs 18z, which looked pretty good itself.

The earlier/further west the ull pinches off, the better our odds of getting some decent qpf thrown our way. Unfortunately, the ICON does it over Virgina and we get nothing. Fortunately, it's the ICON.

The NAM was still a little east with the vort vs the 18z GFS that did so well.

Yes, but that may not be with every ensemble member added. So it could go up or down. It looks like it tries to start a low in the eastern gulf that moves NNE up off North Carolina.

The precip shield as a whole shifted west. It looks like .10 may reach middle Tennessee on there. Just estimating again. Not seen a total.

Looks like we are going to see around .30 to .6 qpf just estimating, on there from 90-114. Basically western Plateau and east.

It does appear the excitement was a lp bombing off Cape Hatteras. It's at 984 about 25 miles off shore it appears.

Weather next must have melted down. The gfs AI may have taken it over.

I suspect it's going to be a big eastern half of North Carolina/South Carolina snow event. That area is the general focus for Bouncycorn.

The GFS isn't just often wrong these days, whatever has happened to it, it doesn't even correct until the event is actually happening.

The ICON may be trying with the vort. It looks slightly better than 12z through 84.

18z NAM looks kinda blah at the end. Flat with the vort at 84 vs it wrapping up on the 12z gfs at 90. Probably wasn't going to get much done here.

If I can get 2 inches from this, I'll be happy at this point. The Euro being a complete whiffer is a sadly decent chance to happen too.