John1122

Downtown LaFollette during the NW flow earlier today while I was out.

18 with light snow falling this morning. Have a dusting out there.

Down to 34 with a mix falling here.

The official BOM observed for the last 3 days available (8th, 9th, 10th) has been COD/6, COD/5, and back to COD/6, but headed towards 8 (hopefully). It's 3 days behind so it could be in 8 now.

I use freeimage.host and then get the link.

Last night when it really started accumulating quickly.

Looks like I'm gonna finish up at about 1.5 inches. Shocked by this one.

Really heavy burst underway currently. Maybe the heaviest of the evening.

I'll forgive the RAP for its failure last system. I'm about to cross the 1 inch mark. Complete surprise.

Still pouring down quarters.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1020 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 TNZ012>018-035>047-070-121100- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson- Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene- Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Jefferson- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Hartford, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, and White Pine 1020 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...Bands of Snow Through Early Friday Morning... Bands of snow will move across the northern Plateau and northeast Tennessee through early Friday morning. The heaviest band may quickly produce 1/2 to 1 inch of snow mainly areas near the Kentucky and Virginia state line. Travel impacts will be possible through early morning especially elevated surface such as bridges and overpasses. Drive with caution and slow down. $$

It's absolutely dumping here right now. Heaviest snow since November 10th.

Solid dusting down here. May be able to squeeze out 1/2 to 3/4ths inch.

For some reason a huge hole just opened up around me on radar. I was getting steady nickels and it just collapsed down to flurries with the returns going to my east and west. Hopefully it fills soon.

Sort of steady light snow now. Took probably 30-40 minutes of returns to get flakes down here.

32 with a passing flurry.

34 with returns approaching. I suspect it may be virga.

The RAP is giving an aggressive bit of snow shower activity overnight, but it suckered me once a few weeks ago. Thermal issues that time though.

The 18z HRRR tries to bring the clipper in a little further west initially with a band of snow from Scott Co Tn, through to about Maynardville and points east.

This was his quote about it. I could be wrong as you two know much more about it than me.

From what I understand, the ABM one there is the actual verified MJO plot, and that there's a 3 day lag time for it per Gawx. I believe the GFS there is likely a model estimate.

The forecasts are still mostly favorable for it, but they are all starting it a little off where it actually is now by the look of it. Sadly, even with the favorable forecasts we still manage to get warm on models. Not sure if it's a headfake by them or if it's the MPNA from the paper I linked last month, that says 8 isn't cold of the MPNA is negative.

The main thing we can hope for is the shake-up isn't 6+ weeks, and that whatever happens after that, the Pacific is more favorable going forward. The current pattern is the Ohio Valley dream, and the Central Virginia snow globe, while we get stray flakes and glancing dustings. If Pacific had been a little more cooperative we'd have been clippered to 10+ inches by now.

It's just barely into 6, hopefully it's looping back towards 7,8. The beautiful pass through 8-1 the models had could have been great. It made it there (to 6) a few days ago and models started blowtorching the lower 48 around that time. Which is basically phase 6 in a nutshell in winter. Hopefully Canada doesn't get scoured of cold. The snowpack north of us will likely be gone by Christmas if modeling is correct. I'm ready for a reset anyway, I think winter will make a comeback some time in January, unless we go full 1989-90.