John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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It's listed as a moderate Nina on some sites. I was surprised to see that it had changed on the PSL site.
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I was looking up ENSO years and not surprisingly, I've started finding conflicting data. The PSL NOAA site now says that 1995-96 was ENSO neutral. I've always known it to be a Nina. It has several other conflicting instances as well.
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For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now.
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I'm sure it's entirely coincidence, but we are hitting the 30 year legendary/epic winter cycle year here in 25-26. The winters of 1935-36, 1965-66, and 1995-96 were all given to stretches of very abnormal cold/ above average snowfall. I know in 1935-36 the NE Pacific was on fire, 3c AN. Western areas did the worst in that winter, but Memphis still got over 10 inches of snow Dec-Feb. Nashville got 19.2 inches from 4 big events. Knoxville had 28 inches that winter. Chattanooga had around 21 inches that winter. My area had 39 inches that winter. 12 in December, 9 in January, and 18 in February. The North Pac was also warm in 1965-1966. January of 66 was absolutely one of our harshest winter events. Most of the state was 5 to 20 below zero after a few big snow events. Alabama set their all time state record low then, when a small town NE of Huntsville hit -27. 1995-95 delivered epic winter here but the north pacific was cool that season. I'm sure a coincidence but an odd one. As for Carver's question about general sst vs blocking, I've found that is a loose correlation at times, mainly even when we get favorable sst in a region that would normally promote blocking, we often still don't get it. I'll look into La Nada winters but I believe enso neutral leans towards AN temps as a rule.
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Got an inch in 30 minutes earlier today with a storm. Lots of thunder now but it's to my SW so that one is likely going to miss me. There's a bit more convection in Ky north of me.
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71 for the high today with around .39 inches of rain. The rest of the week looks pretty good too.
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Late September or early October out there today.
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Very rowdy storm going currently. Tons of cloud to ground lightning hitting close and extremely heavy rain.
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While I've been lucky lately with the showers popping imby, the forecast has been swinging quite dramatically as the day of approaches. For the last few weeks MRX has put high rain chances in the d 3-7 period, only to see them slightly dip by d2 and crash by d1. This week was advertised to have 80 percent rain chances today for days in advance, yesterday morning the chance for today was 90 percent, it dipped to 70 percent with the evening forecast package, now it's down to 30 percent. The 80 percent for Friday dropped to 50 percent with today's package. At least the cold front still looks to pass.
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It was doing the same here but lately the thunderstorms have been hitting daily.
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Yet another 1/2 inch of rain so far today, this one in about 25 minutes.
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Got another 1/2 inch of rain overnight but nothing today but steamy heat. Made it to 89.8.
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The first round of Kentucky storms gave me some pretty heavy showers and frequent thunder. Looks like more upstream but it's weakening some.
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Picked up 1/2 inch of rain today. Definitely helped keep the temperatures down, even though it was extremely humid.
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A little over a half inch of rain today in two showers. The ground is so we, extreme heat should be off the table. It does feel like the tropics here lately.
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Picked up about .4 today, about 2 inches the last week. Areas just west of me in Scott Co has gotten around 6+ inches of rain the last few days.
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Ironically the last two days we've been under a flood watch with an 80 percent chance of rain and it's hardly rained at all.
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Another heavy rainer moving over. It thundered for 45 minutes, then stopped when it started raining. Now we've had 3 rounds of heavy rain without thunder. Looks like it's training along the Plateau from Crossville to here and over towards NE TN and SW Va.
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The rain showers have hit again today and tonight. It's hard to get super hot when we have plenty of soil moisture. Hopefully we keep piling on rain the next 4 or 5 days like forecast. It should help blunt the heat next week.
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Very divergent pattern on the GFS op vs the GEFS in the 8-15 range. The GEFS is generally AN for the area with AN precip. The 0z GFS is wet and way BN temp wise for the same period.
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That thunderstorm did not miss me. Picked up .80 in 25 minutes.
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This is like ground hog day, just got back from town. Minor street flooding until 1/4th mile from my road, then dry and dusty with sunshine at my house.
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Thought I was going to get another soaker but it collapsed about 1/4th mile from my house and then re-intensified about a mile past my house. Barely sprinkled at my house. Heavy standing water close by on either side as a drove to town.
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1.2 inches from that storm in about 45 minutes.
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Finally getting a truly heavy heavy storm myself.
