John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I will say this on obs and it may not mean anything on the downstream effect. Areas of Missouri that reported an inch on the ground at 10:30 their time, 11:30 est, are shown on the 12z Euro as being under an inch at 1:00pm est. Joplin Missouri has gotten 4 inches from what I can tell and currently has heavy snow and 11. Per the 12z Euro they should be at .9 inches as of 1pm.
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The EURO, which still won't shock me at all if it's right, unfortunately, is one of the big factors in the NBM being so low. It's a desert again. The UKIE is also very dry.
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I'm actually in the 3-4 inches but that blank area is the Cross Mountain downslope area it always overdoes by a mile. That area of CC is the high ridges around Norris Lake.
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GFS really buries the Plateau west and went up for everyone except Chattanooga from 18z.
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We used to get those a couple times a decade but they've faded since the 1990s. Not crossed 15 inches for an event in the 2000s. Did it three times in the 90s alone.
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RGEM basically maintains what it has for the last two days. Really nice hit for West Tennessee and then the Northern Plateau and NE TN and points north. Around 3 inches along 40 from Nashville to Knoxville.
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The FV3 (which also does the same thing with terrain as the 3k) has a better look for most. It still does the terrain ups and downs, but has more qpf/snow for the entire board basically.
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The 3k struggles with terrain in our area. It seems to overexaggerate both upslope and downslope and it tries to basically hit every feature above about 2000 feet with some kind of downslope or upslope response. Snow fields are smooth in areas without peaks above 2k all over the area where snow falls, then when it gets to elevated areas there's a bump and decrease downwind of that bump across the board. It makes for a wildly varied output.
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That may happen, but the HRRR struggles mightily beyond about 6 to 12 hours out.
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0z that just ran. Vs 12z today.
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Just got nam'd finally. Been waiting for that. Getting towards it's wheelhouse.
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The 18z UK was much better towards the areas south of 40 than it had been, which it had been throwing a blank. Now has generally 1-1.5 inches all the way to the southern border.
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WVLT had the same thing. Showed my area at 4 inches by 2pm Wednesday with another burst of snow around midnight Thursday. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't the GRAF which a lot of TV stations use now.
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I'm also just mystified by the sun angle talk. That's more a thing for March events when it's snowing and 35. Mid February is prime snow climatology for Tennessee/Kentucky/Virginia.
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I'm not sure where MRX is seeing all the warmth they are. I don't get above 28 degrees on any modeling on Wednesday. The Euro has me at 20f at 1pm.
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MRX goes with a WWA north of 40 and basically west of 81. Surprised they sent it up this early and surprised it's only an advisory in my area after model trends from today beefed up totals on the N. Plateau to 3-4 inches in less than 12 hours.
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It may end up entirely different because the systems were a bit different, but modeling was very far off on precip totals imby even 36 hours out for the system that just passed. I ended up with nearly 4 inches of rain, and the Euro for instance, was showing 1.5ish as of 12z Thursday.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
From an era where Siberian express, Alberta Clipper, etc happened yearly and they meant get the sled ready. -
Euro still in high desert mode. Someone will have to blink in the next 24 hours or so.
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The UKIE was horrible for most everyone, oddly, my area didn't change much but literally everyone else saw their totals crash into oblivion on it. Especially Kentucky and North Carolina.
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The GFS is almost a mirror image of the RGEM.
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The RGEM looks good again. At 84 it's still snowing over all of East Tennessee basically. Low end is 1.5-2 inches along the southern border. High end is 6+ along the Kentucky border.
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Unfortunately I don't trust it much outside 48 hours no matter what it shows.
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It's a positive step at least. It had blanked everyone south of a Kentucky border county. Hopefully this is a trend towards better qpf in Tennessee.
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Snow has been moderate at times this evening. The roads are even getting covered as the temps are in the 20s.
