John1122
-
Posts
10,739 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by John1122
-
The fire hose finally turned off here. The creeks around my house are probably in the top 5 or 6 that I've seen them. If it had rained another couple of hours we probably move into the top 3.
-
It's looking pretty good right now, but it's never a given here until we see the flakes falling. We are due for one that doesn't go south or north.
-
Flooding pretty wide spread here. A lot of thunder today with temps in the 30s. Not common. Heavy rain ongoing with 2.24 inches down so far today.
-
This EPS run may be as good as any we see for this system. Add an inch for ratio's north of 40 especially.
-
The UKIE (which is normally the warmest model) had mixing/warm nose issues for the far eastern areas and a lot of sleet, but still put down a lot of snow from 75 west basically.
-
Precip is running way later than forecast. It was supposed to rain heavily here tonight, and I don't think anything makes it until daybreak. It is down to 35 degrees.
-
The UK 10:1 and ratio'd map aren't a ton different. It's the warmest of all the guidance from what I can gather.
-
GFS is a "meh" for the east, good for the Northern half of the western forum. The Canadian is a monster. The ICON somewhere in-between.
-
It's hard to ask for a better track than the GFS throws out at 18z. That track should have a bigger and better precip shield. I assume it transfers or something and falls apart like the January system kept getting modeled to do.
-
The Euro was similar to 00z but less precip overall. Colder with high ratios. Way way way colder than the UK.
-
The Euro was like a slightly weaker version of the Canadian. Eastern areas get the most. 1-3 west of the Plateau. 4-8+ across much of the east. The UKIE is similar in the East with heavier snow in the western areas. Won't be surprised if it's entirely different tomorrow.
-
UKIE is a pretty significant winter storm for the region. If this slips under 120 hours (it's close now) it's probably close to thread starting time.
-
The GFS/ICON/Canadian all still have the snow event. The Canadian is a monster after being not so good earlier. The GFS is improved and the ICON was a bit as well.
-
Modeling is still moving around with the potential snow next week. The GFS has been back and forth with a monster. The others are lighter events. They're pretty much showing everything from a forum wide event to a west only or east only event. Hopefully we can reel it to within 48 hours.
-
Moderate rain ongoing. 1.04 inches today so far. Just over 3 inches since yesterday.
-
25 was the OP last night.
-
12z modeling still has the snow event. The ICON better than the GFS for more of us. The GFS has a rain to heavy snow set up. The Canadian isn't out to there yet but looks like it's about to give it ago.
-
ICON and Canadian also have the storm. Not as crazy as the GFS obviously.
-
15 to 20 inches for the Eastern half of the state there. The GFS has some wild super snow events modeled this year and I don't think a single one has happened to the extent it showed at this range.
-
Huge event on the gfs. I don't trust it, but it would be incredible to see.
-
2.1 inches here so far and still pouring.
-
Close to 2 inches here at 38 degrees. Miserable.
-
Obviously with how this winter has gone, they can't be trusted, but the Euro and GFS just dumped on the western half of the forum area.
