John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Some folks like a storm specific observation thread as the other thread is for forecasts and the timing is often very different for the arrival of precip in the forum area.
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Seemed to have bottomed out at 19.6 and have went up to 21 currently with high clouds moving in.
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I shouldn't say no qpf. But significantly less than other models. .2 to .3 vs .5 to .9 on other products. The Euro just shreds the storm as it moves East.
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The Euro is still in the storm is dying, no QPF for anyone east of Nashville. It's either going to score a major coup and we're gonna be heartbroken or it's having one of its worst performances in a while. I don't recall ever seeing models this far apart when a storm was underway.
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It seeds the HRRR I believe. But they both can struggle past 12 hours.
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RAP slightly lowered QPF that run and warm nosed more than it had before. More sleet, lower snow totals vs it's last longer run. I wouldn't be surprised if the 06z HRRR follows suit.
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The American models are marching in a line for sure. Not sure if they're correct but they're in a cluster.
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GFS loves the southern border folks. Putting this here to check back next time we have a system like this. I always go back and look at how models handled things from certain ranges.
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21 degrees, dp 16. Hard to beat frozen ground before a system. For some reason this has reminded me of Feb 1996 all week. Ice/frozen way south. A week of cold air leading into the storm. That one ended up becoming a legendary system, especially for the central valley of East Tennessee. But was a severe winter storm forum wide.
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I still think it's over emphasizing the down slope. The hi-res models try too hard at times. That would be even worse than you did last year.
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Oddly, my point forecast just says "cloudy" tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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Is the OHX uptick from the NBM? WPC? Looks sort of like a RAP/HRRR/GFS weighted blend.
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Hopefully @AMZ8990 has some obs for us soon. He's usually the first in the forum with them.
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28/10 today. Currently 25.2 at 6pm. I've been below freezing since Monday at just after noon, the high for the week was 38 Monday morning. 3/4th inch of snow on the ground with a thin layer of sleet and ice from the zr below that.
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In honor of Jeff's finger art.
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Rap bringing heavier totals into Mississippi. Maintains pretty well. The HRRR at 0z may be similar.
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The NAM semi folded to the HRRR/RAP. It went from a Plateau runner to an Apps runner.
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It's still going to be a major outlier.
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NAM coming in somewhat cooler/less WAA craziness.
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The HRRR being colder raised Chattanooga from 3.9 to 4.6 that run.
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It was still a big time run of the HRRR (at range, use caution) but it was a little lower with QPF.
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The HRRR looks like it's going to slip the low just on the NC side of the Apps.
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HRRR looks flatter/less QPF will be likely this run, but its a bit colder and just about a county tier further south with sleet so far.
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The Canadian/Euro/UKIE all have .4ish or less along and north of 40 in the East. The middle camp has .5 to .8ish. The NAM has over an inch.
