John1122

Canadian hold the front up again and we have mid-state snow, eastern ice/sleet and by 240, -5 to -10 degree lows. The GFS blows the front through and it's much weaker. 20 degrees warmer than the Canadian. It pops a storm over Cuba and runs it across Miami with a lesser than the Euro winter storm for Northern Florida. We need a happy middle of those two. If I had to bet my life, it pick the Canadian, as we see hung up fronts along the apps like that often. We don't see the old Cuba to Miami winter storms very often. Especially not snow and zr producers over Florida.

Memphis was the warmest spot in the state during that time frame with a high of 8 and low of -9. All the other stations I can find a report from were in the -10s. Nashville was the coldest of the big cities at -13.

These are the MJO plots from the Euro. It is where convection is located. In winter we want to see it on the left side to maybe 3. We want it out of 4, 5 or 6 especially.

Griteater looked for similar 500mb patterns to the one advertised next week, and the closest he found was February 7-9th 1967. There was likely a stalled boundary in the area, that was laid out nearly west to east rather than the usual sharper SW to NE direction, as it was much colder along the Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky vs other areas. The Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky got 6 to 8 inches of snow on the 7th. Along 40 and into NE Tennessee got 3-5 inches and southern areas around Chattanooga got 2 inches. Here, Middlesboro, Tazewell, Oneida, and Corbin were well below 0 on the 8th and 9th. The areas along 40 and 81 were in the upper teens to near 20.

The models are coming back towards a very blocked Pac, the Euro reaches into Siberia and throws that air at us.

Didn't really think of that. Think next storm I'll switch to that method, makes sense now that I think about it. NWS recommends cleaning the board after each measurement and just adding it up. I usually measure every 3 hours in heavy events. To get snow depth, use a second board and don't clean it.

As long as it doesn't trend into a cutter! Pretty good spot to be in right now with the inevitable NW trend. This also may be a record year for modeling showing major, record breaking winter storms deep into Florida.

Lots of winter storms flying around. Hopefully we cash in another time or two before the end of the month. The Canadian has a better pass than the ice storm look it had been giving.

In that case, you got 7 inches! That's why snowboards with wipe offs work best. Eliminates a lot of compacting and issues of that type.

They are way off here, which is normal. I've noticed when they do these maps, if someone sends in a measurement half way through an event, they still use it and put it on maps.

The GFS since it's upgrade a few years ago is great at sniffing out storms. It just has trouble with the finer details once they get close. Seems like all the American modeling does. The RGEM regularly outperforms the NAM suite, even the 3k.

That's more what the GFS tried to do, but the Euro, correctly, kept showing that phase missing.

Pretty excited with what the Euro AI is cooking up in that time frame. It was nearly perfect with this past storm from D8 or D9. It had no wild run to run swings, and pretty much got the south of 40 snow correct and the north of 40 relatively lower QPF but slightly better ratios correct.

I'd lean to the Euro AI. It was pretty consistent and basically exact in it's totals/temps. The Euro at 12 hours ended up rightish.

NW flow snow showers around this morning. Currently nickels floating around out there.

This is hard to beat in mid to late Jan. Jan 15th-Feb 15th is the heart of winter here. The most extreme cold and most snow we get, historically, arrives in that window. Some of that AN precip will be rain. But that angle of cold pointed at us from Eastern Montana to Minnesota basically what we see with big winter events and bitter cold here. That will keep us in the game for what I posted above.

The GFS says let's run it back. Still snowing in NE Tn/SW VA here.

Seems to be over unless that small band near Nashville makes it here. Ended up with 4 inches. Very powdery. No sleet, no freezing rain. Roughly an inch over 7 hours, then 3 inches in 4 hours to close it out.

Just got to 3 inches. It's snowed for just over 8 hours to get there. (Most of it fell in the last hour and twenty minutes.)

We are now what I'd officially call ripping. Quarter sized flakes and a lot of them. Just crossed 2 inches.

Still all snow but it's just not as heavy as it looks like it should be based on radar.

It's a worst of both worlds situation re models. The Euro was right with low QPF for me but the hi-res/NAM nest was right about the warm nose for the folks to the south and the NAM was right about the epic dry slot. The Euro kept everything cold. All in all, it's snow map will end up pretty close most likely. Fortunately the Euro's correct call about snow totals really boosted our western and southern valley folks.

You're likely to get some freezing rain then it will turn back to snow.

Looks like maybe some banding working along the Plateau now.

Steady quarters and nickels falling here. No mixing issues but not terribly heavy rates, about 1/2 inch an hour probably.