John1122

The NAM is more confusing than it's 18z run just by how the precip field meanders around.

Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output.

They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as Jax noted.

With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like

I haven't looked at the panels but would assume as we get closer some massive outlier runs start going away. It's also going beyond their useful phase imo.

I started on the AccuWeather forums around 2000ish. For some reason I thought you were there too. Were any of you on those?

I think Winter Storm Watches will hit tomorrow evening from Florence to Huntsville and points northeast to SWVA and points north of there.

QPF and snowfall totals both went up slightly for my area. Looks close to 8 inches imby now and I believe it was around 6.5 to 7 at 12z.

Quite a different set up this time vs then. That was a marginal event for the area with highs the day before in the 50s. The areas that got snow got it fast and it melted 48 hours later. Highs will be in the 30s the day before this system arrives with lows well into the 20s. This is a rare even where a system ushers in Arctic air and it's fresh for another system on its heels. If any areas see rain it would be in unfavorable downslope areas or a very deep system that has an epic warm nose, and even then you're probably looking at freezing rain.

The entire run of the Canadian today. Uploading it because we probably won't see many like it. If you actually mouse over Knox County on Pivatol you'll see 23 inches.

I honestly expected them tomorrow.

I hope this is a day time event for at least some of it. Last year I blanked nearly but managed a lot of snow the prior two years but they were virtually all at night and quick hitters. Even getting 11 inches in March 22, most of it fell before 8am.

The NAM was likely heading this way still, it was just slow rolling and the snow had only arrived in the East as the run ended.

ICONic

Still snowing East of the Plateau at this point. Some sleet down towards Chattanooga.

RGEM looks like it's gonna be another big run. It's locked and loaded back towards Memphis and it should head across the entire area almost.

RGEM and ICON are less amped and letting the snow spread eastward faster than the NAM.

The NAM didn't agree with itself that run, the 32k/12k/3k are all different with their precip orientation/location.

The track on the NAM is actually great and it makes no sense that East Tennessee is in such an epic dry slot.

The NAM went full UKIE that run and blanked the East. Angle of precip is very steep and it just sits over the mid-state and western areas.

The Euro Ens were just a slightly lighter mirror image of the OP. So it seems it has good agreement with its ensembles.

Actually that map was today before the 12z suite went full Snowmeiser.

Looks like OHX put out a map that halves the totals shown on the NBM. Generally they have around 2 inches for the mid-state.

The euro is also on board with the second system. It's pasting the Eastern areas at 168.

I have no idea if this trend will hold steady, but normally when you start seeing very defined edges to the snow shield on modeling, they are zeroing on on the basic evolution if not the exact placement. Today at 12z it's been very defined edges to the snow shield across modeling. If this is still looking this way by tomorrow evening we should see our first Winter Storm Watches of the season.