John1122

Looks like the cold for next weekend is basically up in smoke now. The 00z GFS is now 20 degrees warmer than it was for next weekend than it was last night at 00z. What looked promising somewhat is a dumpster fire for winter chances here into Christmas, if the models are correct. Deep Gulf of Alaska low flooding Pacific air across the lower 48, hostile Pacific, hostile Atlantic. It doesn't get much worse than that run.

We are going to need some kind of shake up to the pattern to see widespread snow. I don't remember seeing many ridges out west that were sprawled out so far west to east vs south to north. That's pretty much killing our chances of having a storm track that works for us. Nothing is going on in the southern stream really, and clippers are shunted too far NE for us due to that ridge alignment. Unfortunately the PNA is forecast to remain - for the next 14 days with the west/east ridge. We are going for 10 days of mostly dry weather across 95 percent of the forum area with less than .10 qpf falling. As soon as that pattern breaks a little it will warm up and rain, no doubt.

We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.

To me, it's the shape of the ridge in the West. It's not been sharp S to N oriented so the cold hasn't been pressing south, more West to East. The GFS sharpens the Western Ridge and the cold crashes south.

The GFS is just ridiculously cold and dry as a bone. Shades of December '83 all over again.

The extra oomph in qpf came with the cost of a warming push.

It looks like some models got the qpf right but the thermals wrong at 850. The lighter qpf models look like they're missing but were better on thermals.

Mostly sleet with some snow and freezing rain here now. Temp is 32, I doubt we go any lower.

Sleet and snow mixed here in town.

33 with light to moderate snow here. About to head off the mountain for a while. Looks like no precip down that way currently.

Snow is probably an overstatement. More like flake currently, but I've got hope.

34 degrees with a little bit of snow falling.

It looked like Maine or somewhere here in 1996. There was snow piled up to the bottom of stop signs and in mountains in parking lots from Early January until around Valentines Day.

There looks to be some snow moving by to my south right now.

Huge move for the UKIE, it looks about like the 14z RAP. It has been very dry/warm.

The 15z axis is slightly north but bullseyes the Nashville area.

The 14z HRRR was very similar to the RAP.

I suspect it's going to collapse at some point, but the RAP just gave me 4 inches. Sharp cutoff south of about 15 miles north of 40.

The warm nose that Holston mentioned in a prior post is often a problem for valley areas. It tends to be more prevalent towards Nashville and from Chattanooga to Knoxville. In this case there's also a general lack of heavy precip on some modeling and that doesn't cool the column as efficiently.

The 12z RAP and HRRR are relatively steady regarding the arc of snow compared to 06z. I still have my doubts about each.

OHX has issued WWA for snow, sleet, and freezing rain for their Plateau areas.

The Rufus is similar, and a bit south with the snow line, to the other hi-res models. The Rufus is supposed to replace the NAM and NAM 3k at some point. The Rufus has 1.5 inches across downtown Knoxville.

The NAM, HRRR and RAP all look somewhat similar now.

The 03z RAP looks similar to the 21z with a decent strip of 2-3 inches of snow in the same areas. The RAP and HRRR are more stark with rain or snow vs freezing rain or mix.