John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The 18z Euro was way N/NW but it'll take a miracle to make it this far N. All my eggs are in the Sunday morning basket. The cold shot this week wasn't nearly as severe as initially modeled. But if this one coming is, they usually wring out every bit of moisture in the air.
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The power of living in a bowl with peaks around you 800-1000 feet high than you. Cold drainage. It's 29.9 degrees outside my house right now. It's in the low 40s a mile or two away, where it's open to the sw wind blowing around out there.
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Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
John1122 replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
This winter may need archived in this thread for all the wrong reasons. It's hard to be better than we have at 500mb for much of December and January if you want snow. Great Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific mostly cooperative. But we've managed some light ice, and one minor to moderate snow event. Historically these looks would have seen much of the forum area well into double digits snow totals and likely saw my area, SE KY, NE TN and SWVa pushing 20-30 inches. -
In past snow events down on the gulf, it takes a lot colder air than the Euro is throwing out. Historically, accumulation in Florida requires below zero cold here. The Euro has snow breaking out in Florida with surface temps here in the 20s.
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I'm going to hope the Canadian/RGEM is right with this weekend's system and we can at least get some 1-2 inch totals around the area.
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Sometimes you just have to laugh at seeing the Gulf Coast with multiple snow and ice threats while we sit here high and dry.
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Well the Euro just gave Florida a shot at a record snowfall. Tallahassee gets 2.5-3 inches, their record snowfall is 2 inches in 1958. Their biggest snowfall since then is .2 inches.
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If we are -10 on January 31st and only had the one decent snow event, that's gonna be tough. The Euro was frigid at the end again, just after another rain event.
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We've somehow went from snow and teens to rain and cutting. Really hoping the RGEM scores a Sunday coup.
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Canadian went south. The GFS very north. Gonna be a long ride into next week. Hopefully the Canadian is correct about Sunday.
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GFS with one of the craziest runs I've seen it spit out. Random spots of I assume, dynamically driven heavy snow in the middle of heavy rain.
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GFS coming in with nearly a cutter with a front end thump.
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I hope it's correct. It'd been slaughtering the American models in the short range this winter.
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The ICON stepped into the GFS camp, held back energy and the second wave was getting up into our area at the end of the run.
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ICON significantly north vs 12z when it was way down there.
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18z EPS also creeps further NW.
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We're still a good ways out and the biggest NW trends usually fall inside the final 48 hours. I wouldn't give up yet. I'm still somewhat worried about a cutter or runner.
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18z Euro continued the N trend.
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The GFS holds energy back I believe and let's it go later in the week. The other models bring it all out at once. That's why it is showing two possible storms I believe.
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The GFS is likely wrong at this range. The ens often kinda trend more and more towards op runs but always show a muted version. The last 24 hours of GEFS runs show the precip shield trucking north.
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We have the historic snow and ice events thread down the page!
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The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State.
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It's one of the most severe winter storms the Tennessee Valley ever saw. It stretched back into West Tennessee more so than the blizzard. That event and '85 were the times I've seen -20s imby.
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Unfortunately, that's what happened in 2018. Gulf coast snow while we were dry and then a nice juicy rainer as soon as the cold unlocked. In December 1982 it did that three times. Cutter, below zero cold with flurries, then cutter, back below zero etc.
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The next 10 days will see this winter go down as either epic, or an epic disappointment. We basically have all our chips in and a face card showing, but so does the dealer. Do we flip an ace? Do we go bust?
