John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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EURO sucked for me that run, but no mixing issues once again for Tennessee. It's on the weak edge still of all the models.
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UKIE around the same qpf, all snow in Tennessee.
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Canadian. I think it went up around an inch or 1.5 in areas along 40.
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7 inches here, it was an epic front end thump that switched to rain and 33 degrees.
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GFS was basically a reprint of 18z. Maybe more snow around Knoxville. Heavy sleet in Chattanooga but several inches of snow falls there too.
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December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip.
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18z AI Euro just finished a bit ago. QPF up, no mixing/amping issues.
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It was one of our most severe winters. I had a day with a below zero high and some negative teens for lows.
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That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982.
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In addition to that crazy NAM run last year, the other models in the NAM nest didn't agree with it. Obviously it was badly wrong.
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This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump.
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I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times.
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I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger.
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All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues.
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I still go out walking when it's snowing/snowy. Light snow still falling here. Snow has fallen Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and today this week and I should get at least 3 more inches Friday and Saturday. That's an old school winter week.
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That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30.
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Heading home, several areas with quarters falling through town but they were small areas. Maybe 2500 feet of big flakes and flurries on the other side. A little evaporation but no melting here. High was 25. It's been in the 20s for about 54 hours now and may not get out of them before early next week.
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Nice pass by the ICON. 0 mixing in Tennessee that I saw.
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Verbatim, Knoxville is right on the edge that run. Sevier county is freezing rain, Loudon sleet.
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Man, that Euro run was banging the drum again. It's what this pattern was initially advertised as. Below 0 cold, a snow event, then suppression with snow in Savannah and Jacksonville.
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The NAM had slightly lower snow totals in the East 40 and north with about .05 less qpf. Just in the small run to run variation window.
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NAM is often on the amped side of things. I hope the rain/Mix in the far SE areas are not on any other models.
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Always late when snow is possible. 4:21 is my guess.
