John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Snow mean is nice board wide on the GEFS.
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Deepening low over midlands of South Carolina and it can't generate any qpf on the NW side so far.
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This one is falling apart faster than a Yugo for the eastern areas.
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We'll see which works, but the ICON-eps ensembles have about 2x mean precip than the total precip of the OP run.
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Because we can't have nice things, the Euro is still falling apart with this, and that was just about it's worst run of all. It falls on it's face after coming out of East Texas and slowly shears out and dies. One thing you can say, no model is going to really win this, because all of them are all over the place with this potential event. I'd settle for the ICON, which is about down the middle of the UKIE/Euro vs Canadian/GFS.
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The 0z 3k hi-res NAM is giving the Plateau area a couple of inches on the backside.
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Euro is stuck at 18 hrs.
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UKIE is similar but even weaker than the ICON. Dumps on western areas then unravels.
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Record breaking snow in Texas and Arkansas too.
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The Canadian ends up here, a lot of sleet under the snow from 1 tier of counties south of the KY border and points south.
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It has me as sleet/snow on the sounding with no melt layer anywhere. Like 700mb to the surface, not just below 32, but below 28 or so.
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Canadian track is now a mirror of the GFS. Inland runner.
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Canadian is confounding. Produces a lot of WAA and it's icy, but that WAA brings comparatively little moisture north for so much WAA.
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There would be layers of ice in the snow in some areas.
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I could live with this.
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That would be a winter storm from yesteryear on the GFS. Inland runner that just snows and snows for hours on the eastern half of the area, after front end blasting the west side. Some mixing issues again that run, south of 40, but less than 18z because it wasn't quite as amped before it cut up the coastal plain.
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GFS is another wild one.
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I'd take the ICON, obviously rather have the GFS.
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Still below freezing but it's pouring down so hard the accumulation has backed way off. Still spun all the way up my driveway.
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Still holding on to below freezing temps.
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It didn't, it just took a while longer to get here than 12z.
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Moderate rain has returned and the temperature is 29.8.
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Mega ice storm for the areas along the Apps and south of 40 in East Tennessee that run. Topped off by a couple inches of snow or more.
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It worked itself out for us all almost. I hate seeing the little micro climate issues for folks.
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I hope that downsloping doesn't effect the eastern areas like the GFS just showed. Nor the warm nose the southern areas. We just need one boardwide storm where no one has issues! It was close last year but those same eastern areas weren't quite cold enough.
