John1122

200 miles too far south that run of the GFS. This is the golden age for the Gulf Coast if that comes to pass. Their 30 year snow average will be improved just from 2018 and this year alone if this comes to pass.

The DGEX errr Euro AI, is a perfect slider snow storm for us from next Thursday into early Saturday morning. Granted, the weekend event coming up was also a perfect snowstorm for us at one point on the AI model.

Just gonna hope for a few northern stream pulses after this likely cutter exits. Looks like the 2018 analog has a good shot at verifying.

Basically a Miller B on the ICON.

The ICON took a big shift south initially that run vs 12z, but rather than moving west to east like 12z, it runs almost due northeast and still crosses over Nashville like it did at 12z, then moves due east, transfers to the coast and dies. Incredible warmth ahead of it. Mid-70s in Alabama. Doesn't seem believable to pump that much warmth up.

It's moving much slower this run vs it's 12z cutter.

ICON is bringing our energy onshore in California. It's actually moving over Las Vegas now instead of west into the Pacific.

It's a small tick, but 5 or 6 days away a few small ones mean the world in this situation. But the Euro was slightly weaker at 500 out in front of the system on the 18z run. It was a tick further south as a result.

The 486 line over Tennessee? The Heat Miser must be boiling mad.

What would be truly disappointing here would be if the Northern Stream dries up. I was happiest about this pattern because it was loaded with NS energy that gives you those fluffy 1-3 inch snows.

I've no clue on that one. Happy hour German style I guess.

The GFS has a slightly better positioned -NAO, which allows the system to be suppressed just enough. Yesterday the Euro went from Central Kentucky into Northern West VA. Today it goes from SE KY and moves SE into NC. It's feeling the NAO more. We will see if it's enough.

The Euro moved south some but not enough, unfortunately.

Euro has stronger heights out in front of the system vs the GFS. Won't be surprised if it cuts unless they weaken.

Through 84 some differences showing up at 500, the gfs is more consolidated bringing the wave on shore out west.

Through 72, the GFS and Euro are very similar at 500mb.

Oddly, the GFS was the first to start the cutter parade. Let's see if it's first to the suppressed parade. It's wild to have a decent Pacific and the -NAO and still have a cutter.

It's done this in error before. But as always, our region is in the battle ground between 60 and a squall line or 30 and a winter storm.

UKIE is wound up and continues its severe weather look.

UKIE is a wound tight super cutter. Everyone has headed to opposite camps this evening. The UKIE did that last January too, for a good while. It kept insisting all of East Tennessee would be in the 50s and raining. It finally caught once it got under 84 hours.

I get right at .5 precip with a temp of 29 on the ICON.

ICON joined the front end ice storm/cutter camp. Hate to lose the better solution it was showing, especially for a massive I-40 ice storm.

Webb, earlier, posted the 500mb map from next week and from Jan 1977 and they were remarkably similar. It started earlier, with a nice snow event in late December for many folks so '77 started with snow on the ground. Jan 77 was below normal on precip, really, even much below normal with about 50 percent of normal precip. But almost all of what fell, came as frozen precip because it was so cold. Knoxville recorded snow accumulation of at least a dusting on 13 days in Jan 1977, with 5 events between 1 and 4 inches at Mcghee Tys. The Knoxville Experimental station, which is north of the airport had 16 days of snowfall. Chattanooga had 12 days with at least a dusting and 3 1 to 3 inch events. Tri had snow of at least a dusting on 19 days. Including 13 of 14 days in a row. Their biggest event was 5.7 inches over three days. Keep in mind, East Tennessee was less snowy than the Plateau/mid-state that winter. The Northern Plateau had 20+ inches. Jamestown had at least 2 inches of snow on the ground all but two days of the month. Those two that didn't had 1 inch. Jamestown did that with 3 inches of qpf, vs an over 5 inch normal. Nashville had 11 days of accumulation that added up to almost 20 inches. Memphis had 10 days of at least a dusting of snow, Jackson 14 days. Every area of the state at a snow depth of at least 2 inches at one point during the month. Most areas had at least two events of greater than 3 inches. If you count the end of December, most areas had three. I remember here, it snowed seemingly every day, about 1/2 to 1 inch, for weeks on end. School was out day after day. The bigger events happened early month before the super deep freeze hit with -10s being widespread, and after it let up as the Arctic air retreated. That one was a widespread 4-6 inch event January 23rd-25th.

Looking back at last January, the GFS was all over the place and lost the storm day 7 to 5. The Euro was a wound up cutter that had us in the 50s with rain, then it went to Cuba with the storm. It didn't get a clue until 72 hours out. The UKIE was too wound up. The Canadian was too wound up. The ICON had the right general idea by 144 hrs out and held steady until the event.

Trying to remember for sure, but I'm pretty positive last year the ICON locked into the January winter storm and it was the only model that didn't waiver or go off the rails at one time or another from 180 to storm day.