John1122

GFS looks like it's gonna make a pretty map for us in a few minutes. Fantasy land notice applies.

The GFS is back to some extent with the system on the 6th vs the 18z dud in that time frame. A bit of snow on the front end. Maybe some ice too.

The ICON and Canadian have found the little system the GFS has late next week. The GFS ha it but very suppressed and weak. It's a clipper and the Canadian has handled them better this winter so far.

1977 is the coldest here too. Average of 20.6 for Campbell. I think 1940 may be 2nd, it's average for here is 22.

Those dates in 1961 saw a strong cold front and anafrontal snow on the 19th. It rained almost half an inch with the temp rising to 38 by 11am, the front passed and the temp quickly fell, the rain changed to heavy snow with 3. 5 inches of snow that afternoon/evening. The temp dropped to 17 by midnight and it was 16 the morning of the 20th. There was light snow/flurries on the 20th with a second wave of true arctic air set to hit. The high was 29 here. The temperature held in the upper 20s through evening and it was still 28 at midnight. I assume sw flow ahead of the next front kept the temperature steady. The big time arctic front crossed here by 5:30am when the next temp was recorded. It was 21 at 5:30am, it was 13 at noon, it was 7 at 5pm, and -5 at 11pm. Sometime during the midnight to 5am time frame it snowed 3.5 more inches with what I assume was a clipper in the Arctic air. The 22nd the high was 21 and the low was -7. Keep in mind, these observations at are 2500ish feet. However from what I can find, the entire area had temperatures near 0 and 2-4 inches of snow.

I'll say this for it, it has zero support from it's ensembles on kicking out the PNA into the middle of the country.

It has a rain to snow winter storm that's like a super clipper/Arctic blast late in the run. It has a rain to dynamic snow event on the Northern Plateau earlier. The 12z was 30 degrees colder over our source regions than the 18z at several frames out there. The biggest and most unfortunate difference is that the PNA ridge gets shoved east and rather than re-enforcing shots of cold air being pulled down from Canada across the midwest and plains, the plains and upper mid-west are 20 degrees above normal. Even with the good rain to snow event, overall it was a much worse run than 12z.

The GFS also ended poorly, the exact opposite of 12z. 12z was super blocking and cross polar flow. 18z is a major PNA flip, AO flip etc. The GFS has been having these issues for the last week or more.

It may end okay, but I want nothing to do with this run of the GFS. It's singing a story as old as time for this area. Rains, gets cold and dry, warms up and rains, gets cold and dry.

I'm enjoying decent rains today. I don't want to get 90+ inches of rain again in a year but I hate droughts.

That frigidity is why the 1982 ice storm was so incredible in the Eastern half of the area. The temps were ice box cold leading up to it, there was snow on the ground when the ice hit and it had been well below zero. Nashville was below zero before the snow event on the 13th and well below, -11 a few days after it.

The ice storm was Jan 1982. A very severe winter month in and of itself.

I saw a Jan 1981 analog yesterday. That was a cold month that kicked off with temps crashing the first 5 days, a 1.5-4 inch snow around the 6th/7th, then we froze for two weeks but it was dry. Warmed up to AN around Jan 25th but winter came back to end the month with a 4 to 8 inch event on the 30th. There was snow on the ground here from 1-7 to 1-21 1981. We had 6 nights of 1, 0 or below 0 lows. One day of 40s in those two weeks, every other day was 30s or 20s for highs, but we had 1/2 inch of snow on the 13th and very light rain on the day it got to the 40s. Total precipitation for those two weeks of cold was .08 inches after the snow on the 7th.

The Euro found the same system as the GFS on the 6th but it's a cutter on the Euro.

It pretty much maxed out the potential pattern.

There was a southern stream system then another on January 17th. January 20th was the arctic front that was northern stream related I believe. Extremely high ratios. Around 6-8 inches of snow on .3ish qpf.

'85 was a series of Miller A's if I recall correctly.

I wish the trough was centered a little further West. That's a clipper look though so hopefully we can score either way.

I hope we can get a storm worked up at some point during the cold. The overall pattern has been dry for most of the last year. (ironic to have historic floods during a dry pattern) and the first cold shot is dry on the Euro/Canadian. Possibly a similar pattern to early this month when we got some light snow but not much else. Jan 10th and beyond may afford more opportunities.

The ICON looks like it was going to be similar to the GFS at the end of it's run. Maybe a day slower. The Canadian is a cutter basically a day earlier, as is the Euro.

This run, the GFS gins up a significant plateau/east winter storm on the 2nd. It was showing that a while back and lost it. The Euro had it at times too. Another snow system arrives before the 10th of January, but lighter.

Yes, there are 4 creeks by my house that converge into a large one nearby. All of them froze solid. Ice was 6 inches thick on the big one that runs slower. 6 inches of snow would have sent temps to -10 to -20.

Going off memory, January 1977 was around -15 imby with multiple heavy snow events. It was below zero 11 times and the highest temperature of the month was in the 40s. Nashville got almost 20 inches of snow and was like -17 for the month.

January 1977 was one of the all-time cold/snow winters valley wide. It was especially epic for Nashville.

I saw an analog package and it was '96, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2018. 2018 was a clunker for me, block buster cold but only 2 inches of snow, I know area to the east got a 12 inch event. Those others were snow machine winters.