John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Clouds just keep regenerating overhead here. Holding at 28.
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Another solution completely. The southern energy gets left behind and this is entirely from NS energy diving down into the gulf. At this point I'm going to hope the Euro AI is correct. It nailed the current system from 156 out and didn't change much. The Euro AI is a board wide weak slider that drops 4-8 inches forum wide.
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I was 26, it clouded up from the NW and warmed up to 28. There should be some clearing overnight before clouds return around 4 or 5 am.
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0z Suite pt 1 ICON super suppressed. Ice on the gulf coast. After the system misses to the SE, it tries to gin up a couple of inches in East Tennessee as a back side pulse drops into the area.
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Does anyone else notice that Pivotal sometimes doesn't show snow on their maps but when you look at accumulation it's showing that it fell? I had sort of noticed it earlier this year and the Scottie mentioned the NAM showing nice wraparound and I looked at Pivotal and it's not showing any snow falling during any period. (Other sites do show it) However, when you click on 6hr accumulation for instantance, it shows snow has fallen in the areas where it's showing nothing but other sites are showing snow.
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HRRR has a couple hours of snow here to start then precip backs off, then some light freezing rain or drizzle for a bit.
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It used to be, that when it snowed in North Texas, we would be cashing in soon after. Alberta Clippers gave 2-4 inches, and when Margie Ison said "Siberian express" we were going to get 2+ inches and temps below 0 were coming. All those things happened almost every single winter when I was young.
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The 18z Euro was slower than then 12z. Looked like West Tennessee was still fine, but not sure where it may have gone for the East areas. It sped up on the GFS and made the east in the day time. Likely would be overnight on the Euro. Granted, it's a transfer issue less than a temperature issue for the east. It just gives up the ghost on the gfs and there's no dynamic cooling, which means freezing rain and drizzle on the GFS.
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This may be it for winter. Once these patterns break down, historically. That's basically it for winter. February usually is well AN.
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Not gonna lie, if this ends up a cutter, I'm probably checking out for winter from model watching.
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Great run for the west side. Crap show for the east side. Apparently morphs into a cutter.
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GFS is just crushing Memphis this run.
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The RGEM is one extreme and the NAM is the exact opposite extreme.
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They extended the hours as well. It was 7am to 7pm here. Now it lasts until 11am Monday morning.
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Euro AI was a big hitter for the forum area it appeared. Looked like 4-6 inches north of 40, and 6 to 8 south of 40, especially in western areas.
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I will say this, heavy snow turning to rain or freezing rain, while a system is to our south or southeast isn't common imby. Cutters and a front end thump, yes. But not with sliders/Miller A systems. Falling snow helps keep the column cool and the flow of WAA isn't usually quite what it is with a cutter.
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Darts with a blindfold at this point it seems. Solutions from super suppressed to WAA screamer are on the table. It kinda just lost it's punch on the GFS. The Euro did that last night at 0z as well.
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The ICON has snow along the Ky and VA border areas Sunday. It has a beautiful slider by next Friday. Sorry for the confusion. I should have added more info to the post.
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The UKIE has a LP just south of New Orleans at the end. Barely grazing Tennessee at that hour but I don't mind at all where it's at at the end.
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While a big snow is rare here. Winter storms in Florida, the Canadian solution, is even more rare. So I have to assume it's wrong.
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I'm not sure what drove it, as far as the rain snow line. I assume purely a SW to NE line. Tazewell got an inch, but the Newcomb station a few miles from me as the crow flies, but under 1000 feet elevation, just about the lowest spot in Campbell not underwater, also got 5 inches. So it wasn't elevation driven.
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Also had 5 inches from that one, then the 850s warmed and we got 1.5 inches of cold rain.
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Beautiful slider on the ICON. Nice 3 to 5 inch snowfall for most of our region.
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Probably wrong but the ICON drops heavy snow along the border counties with the current weekend event.
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The red is pretty much over me. I will note that they seem to be looking at it a bit oddly imo, as they are forecasting the highest elevations as the most likely ice spots when it generally is just the opposite. Cold gets trapped in lower bowls and elevations, especially above 2500 feet or so, are way warmer from the WAA.
