John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.
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Waa is screaming. It was clear and dropped to 33 just after dark. Now it's 44.
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The current forecast of ice box cold, warm up and rain, back to ice box, then warm up and rain, is weather torture for our forum area. For it to happen in December and January is particularly brutal. Especially with a potential second year in a row of "once in 50 years" type snow possible near the Gulf due to the air behind our first rain maker tonight.
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Made it all the way down to 9 about an hour ago, but have warmed up to 13 now.
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The 18z Euro Ai was a gem. It's usually steady once it locks onto something. Hopefully it stays locked onto that type of evolution.
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Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames.
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It's a QPF issue. It goes from dumping over northern Middle to dying imby, but it bumps back up a little bit east of 75 and down towards Knoxville.
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I don't understand the NAM just pasting northern Middle and S Kentucky, then a hole just develops over me and @Kentucky. Someone in another forum mentioned that the precip holes were a known NAM mistake. I hope that's correct. Of course the NAM is on an island anyway with the system so who knows what will happen.
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I guess they are wondering why there's so much difference in American vs foreign modeling and can't figure anything else out to do.
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We had around 1/2 inch this morning above about 1600 feet, around 8ish. Ended up causing school to be canceled.
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The Rufus was a big hitter along the 81 corridor and decent down to Knoxville.
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The ICON has went from barely scraping far Eastern NC at 18z yesterday, to snow almost back to Charlotte at 06z.
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The Rufus shifted probably 90ish miles w with the precip field vs 0z. It was mostly hugging the counties that border NC, now the precip shield is to the Plateau.
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One or two more NW shifts would be nice. Webb keeps saying the Euro is out to lunch being so suppressed with really nothing in the Atlantic to keep it suppressed.
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SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip from 63-87.
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The UKIE, which has been the furthest east, was probably 150-200 miles west vs 12z.
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Canadian, while nothing for us, went from off the coast to precip well west into NC from 12z to 0z.
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I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track.
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The Rufus now has the Sunday system hitting East Tennessee.
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0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft.
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The 0z NAMs are similar to 18z with precip, but they were also warmer. Rain across our area but snow on the Gulf coast would be the ultimate weather slap in the face.
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It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row.
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ICON is also a mostly rain event. Frustrating to say the least.
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18z is really warm as well, at this point, it wouldn't shock me if it warmed up and rained.
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It's the model that is supposed to eventually replace the HRRR and NAM.
