John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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UKIE was slower but solid. Feels like the Euro is lurking to nuke our near perfect modeling night.
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Has some downsloping in NE Tennessee but that's at times over done. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it's hard to avoid with certain low tracks.
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I'm not sure. He'll probably be on again in a few minutes. He showed three tracks. Just inside the gulf coast was all freezing rain for east Tennessee. Just off the gulf coast was all freezing rain for East Tennessee. But the storm moving over Orlando on his 3rd track he said would allow snow. Then he switched over to the model they use, it had the L over Mobile and depicted snow down to Northern Miss, Alabama and Georgia.
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Just had about ten minutes of the heaviest snow of the whole backside.
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You're not kidding. At 18z it was actually in the middle between the Euro and GFS with how it handled the 500mb energy.
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T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando.
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GFS Ai from 12z. Very good 850 temps and surface temps upper 20s to lower 30s for the forum area.
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Ratio'd AI map. From Bouncycorn the Met who has his own model extraction/blending software. Hard to see, but that's 5 inches in 90 percent of the forum area with 6 and 7 inch totals in the darker blues.
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It's apparently been quite a bit better over the last several months and nailed the storm that just past 7 days out.
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That's basically all snow in our forum footprint too.
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18z Euro AI upped totals again. Now 4-6 inches basically forum wide, 6+ around the southern border. That is 10:1. North of 40 likely has better ratios.
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Steady snow here, closing in on a very fluffy inch.
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It still weakens as it heads East but it made it further that time. It's 4 run trend is quite a dramatic increase in QPF.
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Ratio'd Euro.
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The Euro had a better precip shield again at 18z. Still weakens as it moves East but made it further that time.
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The Euro AI has been locked on since day 7, it may or may not be right but it's consistent.
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The snow has now turned steady with dime sized flakes. Roads and all are covered here now.
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I've been down in town a few hours, it's snowing hard here and the ground is white. My neighbor just sent this from on the mountain.
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Snowing quite hard now and nothing showing up on radar. Temp has fallen to 28.
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The EPS mean increased board wide vs 0z. Small trend but at least in a good direction.
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It wasn't huge, but I have gone from .15 qpf to .22 since last night. A few more bumps like that and we might be talking 3 inches.
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That's at least a better run of the Euro. When the UKIE improved a bit, I expected it would as well.
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The UKIE was better for the east and worse for the west that run. It's been slowing trending north the last couple of days and the Euro has pretty closely mirrored it.
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Nickel sized flakes falling. I didn't get nearly as warm as predicted (forecast high was 47, only made 38), so the ground still has a layer of ice on it from the freezing rain and sleet.
