John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The Euro and Canadian back the energy for the potential storm after this weekend from Utah to the West coast of Central Mexico. It just hangs out there for a few days.
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The GFS just gave us around .1 to .2 of precip over 8 days from the 7th to the 15th. It's also not going to be extremely cold. I think 3 or 4 mornings below 20 for most of the region that run. So at least there's that. No frozen pipes, damaged vegetarion or blackouts to worry about.
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The Pacific is such a headache for us, once again. The PNA is neutral now and that's what killed the weekend storm. Then the ridge orientation is bad and we can't take advantage of the northern stream energy.
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I don't think I've see models have this big of a timing difference this close. Now, the ICON has the system fully across the forum area by 7am Sunday morning. At the same time frame the NAM hasn't even got precip into Tennessee yet.
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200 miles too far south that run of the GFS. This is the golden age for the Gulf Coast if that comes to pass. Their 30 year snow average will be improved just from 2018 and this year alone if this comes to pass.
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The DGEX errr Euro AI, is a perfect slider snow storm for us from next Thursday into early Saturday morning. Granted, the weekend event coming up was also a perfect snowstorm for us at one point on the AI model.
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Just gonna hope for a few northern stream pulses after this likely cutter exits. Looks like the 2018 analog has a good shot at verifying.
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Basically a Miller B on the ICON.
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The ICON took a big shift south initially that run vs 12z, but rather than moving west to east like 12z, it runs almost due northeast and still crosses over Nashville like it did at 12z, then moves due east, transfers to the coast and dies. Incredible warmth ahead of it. Mid-70s in Alabama. Doesn't seem believable to pump that much warmth up.
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It's moving much slower this run vs it's 12z cutter.
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ICON is bringing our energy onshore in California. It's actually moving over Las Vegas now instead of west into the Pacific.
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It's a small tick, but 5 or 6 days away a few small ones mean the world in this situation. But the Euro was slightly weaker at 500 out in front of the system on the 18z run. It was a tick further south as a result.
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The 486 line over Tennessee? The Heat Miser must be boiling mad.
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What would be truly disappointing here would be if the Northern Stream dries up. I was happiest about this pattern because it was loaded with NS energy that gives you those fluffy 1-3 inch snows.
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I've no clue on that one. Happy hour German style I guess.
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The GFS has a slightly better positioned -NAO, which allows the system to be suppressed just enough. Yesterday the Euro went from Central Kentucky into Northern West VA. Today it goes from SE KY and moves SE into NC. It's feeling the NAO more. We will see if it's enough.
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The Euro moved south some but not enough, unfortunately.
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Euro has stronger heights out in front of the system vs the GFS. Won't be surprised if it cuts unless they weaken.
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Through 84 some differences showing up at 500, the gfs is more consolidated bringing the wave on shore out west.
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Through 72, the GFS and Euro are very similar at 500mb.
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Oddly, the GFS was the first to start the cutter parade. Let's see if it's first to the suppressed parade. It's wild to have a decent Pacific and the -NAO and still have a cutter.
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It's done this in error before. But as always, our region is in the battle ground between 60 and a squall line or 30 and a winter storm.
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UKIE is wound up and continues its severe weather look.
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UKIE is a wound tight super cutter. Everyone has headed to opposite camps this evening. The UKIE did that last January too, for a good while. It kept insisting all of East Tennessee would be in the 50s and raining. It finally caught once it got under 84 hours.
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I get right at .5 precip with a temp of 29 on the ICON.
