John1122

And possibly another system on the heels of that one. Very active northern stream.

And then another event on the heels of that one.

The GFS has another 300+ event for the deep south/Eastern forum.

CMC/UKIE/ICON vs the GFS/Euro currently. It used to be that Euro runs were similar to the UKIE. We'll see how far apart they are soon.

The UKIE just smokes the I-40 corridor.

I could do without 1/2+ inch of ice before cold hits.

The GFS ends with another 2-4 inch event over parts of our region and possibly another gulf storm that would actually see us getting precip but imo the GFS does what it often does and undermodels the northern/western edge of the precip shield and only areas east of 75 are snowing. Granted it's at hour 384 so salt planets with any of it. I ended up with right at 12 inches of snow spread out 2 to 4 inches at a time over a week or so.

6z remains a cutter, then it clippers it's way to decent totals, one of which blossoms into a massive Nor'Easter. Our whole forum area gets 2-6 inches over days 8-12ish. As always, like as not a complete fantasy. But what we used to see with true Alberta clippers.

The Euro moves to the GFS camp. A ridge pops ahead of the system like on the GFS and the storm cuts across Tennessee and into Ohio. Still a lot of runs to go, but cutters are the default for us, unfortunately. Hopefully it can trend back our way.

Spot the difference between the 0z GFS cutter, vs the 0z ICON, 0z UKMet, 12z Euro, 0z GEFS as the system approaches. GFS ICON UKMet 12z Euro from earlier today. 00z GEFS

The Canadian just never gets moisture north of 40, but south of 40 does well.

The Canadian is probably going to be a winter storm solution. It's slower than the ICON and way slower than the GFS here.

Unfortunately, it is. 850s are around 35 and the surface is 30/31 in the red areas.

GFS continues to live on cutter island. Holds much more back over the SW again, vs that wintery ICON run. We'll see if the Canadian joins it shortly.

Actually getting hail now.

Heck of a windy storm rolling through. Very heavy rain. The heavy rain overnight and today already had the creeks running extremely high.

Still snowing at the end of the run as noted at 180 above.

ICON. Potentially devastating with such a cold outbreak following the ice/snow.

Spire Model

Much much much weaker than the Euro version last night, which kept the precipitation shield light and small.

This may look like a version of the Euro from last night, but a little further East.

Trying to work something up in the gulf along the end of the front from the cutter.

It moved 200 miles SE that run. But still has energy over Nevada diving into Arizona that isn't there on the Canadian/Euro.

The MJO is probably the best we've ever seen it, forecast wise. There are almost no plots that have it on the right side and the left is covered.

Snow total proabilities, the entire forum area has a > 50 percent chance of 1-2 inches of snow per the EPS, with the chances climbing in the northern half of Tennessee. The chance from Clarksville east across all but the southern border counties in Tennessee is greater than 70. Greater than 80 on the Plateau and NE Tn, greater than 90 in SE Ky/SWVa. The entire forum area has a greater than 20 percent chance of 3 to 5 inches of snow. With the chance at > 40 percent for most of the mid-state and points east. > 50 percent on the Plateau and NE Tn. > 60 percent in areas above around 2000 feet it looks like. The entire forum area has a > than 10 percent chance at 6+ inches of snow. >20 percent from the mid-state east. With higher probs in the mountains. The EPS mean total is 2.6 near Memphis, 2.5-3 across Northern Miss/Alabama/Georgia, rising as you go North and East. 3.4 mean for Nashville, 3.3 for Chattanooga, mid 3s for Knox. 4+ Plateau and 6+ mountain tops.