John1122
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Merry Christmas gang. Hopefully all who aren't posting much make a return to the forums. -
The GFS bounced our way that time. I don't trust any solution it shows because it's swinging all over still. For entertainment/looking back purposes.
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Looking back on the Dec 16th runs of the GFS, it was showing Christmas morning in the 40-45 range across Eastern Tennessee and 50-58 across the Western half of the state. Now the forecast temps are about 7-9 degrees cooler than what it was showing a week ago. It's been overwarm often in December.
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It feels like the Euro A.I ate the DGEX. It's just relentless, 1960s/1970s patterns inbound.
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If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later.
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While he's right at times and wrong at times, like anyone looking towards the long range, Eric Webb noted that multiple factors in the background state did not favor a persistent mountain trough, but instead Alaskan/Pacific blocking.
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GFS is insistent in being in the opposite camp of the Euro/Canadian in regards to the trough being in the West vs the East. It's now got us in the hot box for the first week of January while the West gets pounded by Sierra snow and cold. I know long range modeling is prone to jumping around, but in less than 24 hours it's went from showing 2 feet of snow and lower 30s in NE Texas to 70s.
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The weeklies keep the trough around in the East well into mid to late January. The Euro AI is bullish on the cold and storm potential as well. As DB noted, I'll believe them more when we get close to them verifying. Too many can kicks in my lifetime to be sold as yet.
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GEFS is pretty prime, blocking up top and out west. Major trough in the East. Cold starts moving in around New Years evening and we stay below normal through the end of the run. Basically everything that's warm from Christmas until New Years is cold from the 2nd until the end of the run on the 7th. GEPS is the same.
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The Euro brings the cold and snow the GFS was showing yesterday, big hit for the Carolina piedmont. Brings a general 1-3 inch snow into parts of our area with chilly temps.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Watching this Tennessee collapse is like watching the models show a blizzard every run for a week, only to turn it into a cutter 24 hours out. -
Had a chestnut logger (where snow would lay on chestnut logs and such but not the ground) as my grandpa called them, over a sheen of ice on raised objects. The freezing drizzle was almost light freezing rain around 12 to 1, then it snowed a little over it.
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I got a grill duster. Just enough flakes to cover the top of it over the little layer of ice from the freezing drizzle.
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The moisture isn't reaching high enough into the dz for snow here so I'm getting freezing drizzle with an occasional nickel sized flake. It's 30.6 degrees and there's a light glaze on everything.
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Strong winds, snow and 34 degrees here. It briefly got up to 39 here but the temp has been falling quickly.
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MRX has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains of East Tennessee and SWVA. I expected a WWA.
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The NAM and other models are increasing the snow potential for the Friday afternoon and night time frame too. The thunder earlier is working it seems.
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Carvers shades of '96 showed up on the GFS tonight. Last year it did well sniffing out systems at long range. This year it's having some false starts.
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This cold front is stiff. I went into Walmart and it was warm. Came out 45 minutes later and it's windy and 43 degrees.
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We are currently -4 for the month. Two mornings in the lower 10s helped that along a great deal. Oneida is -4, Norris is -4.2, Monteagle is -4.4, Oak Ridge is -4.2. Odd that points East of 75 are only -1.5 to -2.5 while points west of 75 are that much cooler.
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I was just thinking the other day, this is how winter was back in the 70s and 80s. It started snowing in November and has snowed several times since then. Including one day time event. I'll have to look back and see the last time we had three snows that accumulated in late November into the first ten days of December.
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The Euro tossed out a snowball for Christmas. Probably a headfake, as every model seems to be throwing them out there in that time frame.
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That 12z gfs reminds me of the Christmas 2014 snow then upslope event.
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The Canadian (which was excellent for this morning's event) had a similar path to the Euro AI model that had an East Coast storm. Pretty classic path for much more of East Tennessee to see snow than was depicted by the model. Crashing cold and a low that tracks over interior SC and NC a good 90 miles or so from the coast. GFS is progressive and just sweeps everything out. Something it's been doing a lot of early as winter is starting, before playing catch up late.
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The 12z AI Euro was a major winter storm from Nashville west as a storm ran the Apps.
