John1122

The 18z Euro was possibly going to make a run for glory. Tough winter for the models so far. They are are struggling and all over the place.

I got no forecast product but my forecast now says snow changing to freezing rain with a high of 32 Sunday, freezing rain Sunday evening with the temp falling to 28 before beginning to rise later. MRX said the global models were too fast in scouring out the sub-freezing air across the area. That the couldn't quite handle low level cold well enough to see how it sticks in valleys.

It's basically whiteout conditions.

JKL posted a winter storm watch for their border counties. Modeling is showing warning criteria ice here.

It's coming a connective snow burst now. Very heavy snow and windy.

The EURO op is way warmer/wetter than the EPS, which remains in the supression/colder camp.

Then comes the Euro......

Steady snow has returned here. Figured it was over.

Not sure why the GFS shows some light sleet to start the system over the east. It shows it over me with a -5 850 and 26 degree surface temp. Mid and West forum getting a good snow so far though.

Had a surprise dusting this morning from this. Models did their best to show nothing doing with it, MRX even took it out of the forecast yesterday.

North of 40 Knox to Nashville is .2 to .5 ice on the RGEM, with .1 to .2 south of 40.

The warmth is having trouble getting over the western Plateau on there. Temps are in the 29-30 range along the 75 corridor and eastward on the RGEM.

The RGEM is pushing frozen to the southern Tennessee border areas now. It even has some freezing rain into NE Alabama.

The 0z Euro AI gives mby .18 with 850s below freezing and surface temps in the 20s for the start of the this weekend event. Mid-state border counties don't have the 850s but are below freezing at the surface with around .20+ qpf falling. In the East the sub-freezing line is down to 40, around .1 to .2 falls along the 40 corridor with temps below freezing at the surface at hour 66. At 72, around .2 to .3 more precip has falling, 850s are above freezing but from Eastern Scott to North Knox and points E the surface is still below 32 with another .2 to .3 precip falling. For next weekend event, the Euro AI gives just about the same footprint of precip as the 18z GFS Graphicast noted above. Temps are slightly warmer at the surface west of the plateau, 33-35ish, but 850s are well below freezing. Most areas Plateau and East are upper 20s to lower 30s. .3 to .5 qpf falls.

GFS Graphiccast 18z was .3 to .6qpf (most areas .5 or .6) with very good surface and very good 850s for the event next weekend. Surface for most areas in the 20s, and low 20s or upper 10s 850.

The EPS is steadily dropping south with the frozen shield for Sunday/Monday. It just gave an inch or so of snow to the Tn/Ky/Tn/Va border areas.

The Euro didn't quite match the GFS but it took a big step towards it from last night.

The GFS looks beautiful but it would be historic for the Dallas area, and it's hard to ever count on a place setting a record for snowfall in a given season, over the course of 10 days. That said, the all time Dallas record was, I believe, in 1977. They've had 5 double digit seasonal snowfall years since 1898. None over 20 inches.

UKIE joined the south shift/colder camp on the weekend storm. Gives mby an inch or so of front end snow now.

Looks like last year's January storm but included the parts who missed last year in East TN and Western NC.

Euro AI snow map from Bouncycorn, a met on SW who has a program that extracts model data for snow maps, and also blends every model run for an NMB type map.

MRX is absolutely convinced there won't be any freezing rain and won't put it in any forecast. Their AFD even said because it was against climatology to get freezing rain here, they weren't forecasting it. Bizarre reasoning imo. They had my low at 27 with rain continuing from Sunday into Sunday night.

Losing the -EPO really hurt the cross polar flow/N stream energy potential models had been showing in the long range. This weekend wouldn't likely be a cutter if the -EPO had stuck. It's just rare in my experience to see storms crashing into the Pac NW that end up doing anything here and it's been a parade into Oregon to BC.

That run of the Euro was made of middle fingers for East Tennessee. 150 hours of icebox cold but tumble weeds blow through it's so dry. Then 33 and rain while North of 40/west of Cookeville get a huge snow where precip shuts of immediately once it drops below freezing in the East. Not even from a cutter either.

The way the Euro is going, it may become a tropical system in the Pacific before this run ends. Down to 1009 MB and heading SW from Mexico.