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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Allot goes into OHC. But the main function of hurricanes is to redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles. OHC can absolutely build year over year. Deep OHC in the 100-300m zone is not impacted by local winds. It takes the upwelling caused by major hurricane winds to cause the water column that deep to overturn. .
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll never forget driving over the Verizano bridge on September 12th on my way home from college in Maryland. Just me and mostly military vehicles. My dad was assistant director of security(port authority staff lieutenant) for the wtc from 91-99 when he retired. Almost died in the 93 bombing. I vividly remember him taking me to the giant crator inside the building after 93. He went on to become director of security for trinity church. He happened to be in midtown that day at a meeting. My mom was an American Airlines flight attendant and was grounded in Dallas. Just a monumental day for my family and me as I had no communication and thought both my parents were dead for a few hours. My favorite story is a friend who called in sick that day to surf the huge waves from hurricane Erin. He was an investment banker at cantor Fitzgerald on the 97th floor. I remember every second like it was yesterday. The winds, the smoke smell, the waves. .
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m thinking 5-15 above, the upside potential is even higher the 2015. I do think do to the unprecedented level of energy that will be ejected into the subtropical jet there could be some surprises. As others have said it just takes the right timing. But overall the early winter warmth is likely historic if not record breaking. .
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Maybe some of the western resorts with base elevations above 8,000’. East coast base elevations are generally 1500-2000’ and will be overwhelmed with pacific warmth during prime snow making in November and December. The vast majority of revenue is MLK weekend and prior. 2015 provides a perfect case study in what happens when December is +10. .
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This would be the season for it. Water temps in the Mediterranean are astronomical. .
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If we end up with little or no major hurricane activity this season we are priming the basin for next season. Without the upwelling caused by stronger hurricanes. OHC will continue to accumulate. With a Nina likely next year 27 could be the polar opposite of this season. .
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think the best chance of anything more then a sheared mess comes out of the subtropics late sept into oct. likely starting a subtropical system and taking advantage of above normal water temps. The Mdr is toast. .
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah Oahu, which should be far enough east to avoid strong onshore flow from the circulation will likely see some of the biggest south swell it has seen in decades. Waikiki will likely look like the famed north shore during big winter swells. Captured fetch is really the key to maximize swell generation in a hurricane. It aligns the big three, wind speed, duration and fetch.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah it’s a major bummer for me. I was at least hoping for some development in the subtropics where sea surface temps are still above normal. On to tracking non tropical systems coming up the coast with a juiced STJ. This fall/winter likely includes major coastal impacts up the east coast. The outer banks may be in serious trouble .
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Kauai is really going to luck out here. This could easily rival Iniki if it were slightly further east on the recurve .
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Getting the sun to destabilize is something we were missing the last few days. Could get interesting later .
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Wind wise it’s not far off, but surge is a different story. A weaking cat 3 has imbedded surge while a strenthing cat 1 has yet to really form a large surge. .
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Regardless of a direct hit on Kauai, there will be major coastal impacts. Lots of captured fetch and huge waves. Luckily the Hawaiin islands are used to large surf from the northern and southern hemisphere. .
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Next year should make up for it with a Nina, assuming the mdr warms back up. But yeah this season was dead on arrival. .
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. They tend to take a long time to ramp down, so we could see what ever is left all the way to the coast .
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Anyone take a look at lapse rates? It also had decent inflow off of peak warm gulf waters. .
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Double tornado warnings in Pa right now. Pretty stable on the island right now so not expecting much here other then a run of the mill thunderstorm .
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .03” at the wantagh mesonet. Winner winner or loser loser. Makes up for Saturday. .
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Outflow in the southern semicircle is impressive. Almost looks like half a major .
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Very solid buoy obs .
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The wind is already blasting onshore at jones beach, so we are going to have instability issues here. .
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Well said, it’s a gorgeous beach day. .
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was surprised driving home from the beach that there wasn’t a leaf out of place once north of merrick road. Down on the barrier island the few trees there are, which are very used to wind had branches and leaves down everywhere. Signs blown down all over the park as well. Fits with a localized microburst. .
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    We actually have damage in the park. Maybe a wet micro burst .
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely insane storm at jones beach. Zero vis and at least 60mph winds. Definitely need a severe thunderstorm warning .
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