LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I’m fairly confident we are going to see a historic season. The only hindrance from record breaking may be a Nina background state lag early on. Once to peak season, we should fire on all cylinders. I can see a 2017 type parade of high end storms tracking out of the MDR. Bermuda high placement will determine if it’s a CONUS year. -
Winter '23-'24 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Thanks for sharing. I too am in recovery. We are passionate people. As you stated a big part of recovery is learning redirect that passion in positive ways. You do a great job of that with your seasonal forecasts which I enjoy every year. Congratulations on 10 years, that’s an amazing accomplishment! -
I’m sure you would have said that in 97/98 when NyC was at .5” and on the way to the record only to have that 5” storm in March. March is volatile and probably the hardest month to forecast far out due to the shortening wave lengths. It’s not over yet.
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97/98 was full of benchmark rainstorms. Little bit different scenario, with the entire continent flooded with pacific air, but same net result.
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Agreed, while not a full rat winter, this has been more of a Richmond Virginia style winter.
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About 2” on the uws, which was exactly my forecast. Curious to see what we got on the south shore. I bet the barrier islands were the winners with close to 6”.
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Boxing Day was definitely more of a true blizzard than 2016. Winds, visibility, temps and drifting make a blizzard more so then just total accumulation . Boxing Day was far superior in all those categories. It also had a much larger impact on the average NYer with many neighborhoods unplowed and impassible for days. Basically moderate pixie dust on the uws
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About 1” on the uws, can’t get above moderate rates. All surfaces snow covered however
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Light snow on the uws. Based on the radar trend on the heavy band looks like this area is going to just a little too far north for the best snow. At home on the south shore of the island we should be in the northern part of the best banding. I’m thinking a Monmouth county jack for our area, it’s been a while!
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Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming.
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There are two manhattans. From the north end of the park north, does just fine in marginal events. The northern tip of Manhattan is Almost as far north as the northern Bronx. Midtown south is another story. Concrete jungle.
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A few flurries in lynbrook. Usually with a clipper track like this we would just have drizzle.
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Should drop at least an inch in the poconos then start to break apart. Wouldn’t be surprised if within 20 miles nw of the city sees a coating. In the city temps are too marginal unless it really comes down.
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Yeah, cold and snow cover, makes more cold and snow cover. Kind of how snow ball earth was a runaway feedback cycle to cold. You have record low snow cover over our cold air source region. That’s going to increase solar absorption. We are lucky we even made it to double digits snowfall wise. This could easily have been 97/98 up in till now (.5” cpk)
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Way too early to say that with a definite answer.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February. -
Yeah I measured 5” on the uws average of 10 colder surface measurements. Broadway was plowed here. Whole other world north of the park
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Completely different world a few miles north on the uws. 5” and even Broadway was snow covered and plowed
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Broadway on the uws is currently snow covered. Legit heavy snow currently
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It was moderate sleet in lynbrook when I left for work (snow removal) at 230. Currently moderate snow UWS with nice big flakes. Getting a coating on the grass.
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I think one more is more realistic. But might as well shoot for the stars. Would be nice to at least crack double digits at CPK
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What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City)
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I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages.
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Not with a crap airmass. You need it to pound to scour out the urban heat island. This is going to come down to rates or you’re going to waste allot of snow. Outside the city and the immediate coast, not as big a concern.
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During heavy snow you can force the temp quickly down to 32. We have seen this in many late season events (which this basically mirrors do to the ascendant airmass) So for the city and coast if we can get heavy rates there’s a definite upside. If all we can manage is moderate, then it’s a slushy grass and car topper. Any elevation, even a couple hundred feet could be key here. Having done snow removal for a decade on the uws, I have seen multiple events like this were we have several inches up there and CPK and midtown struggle to accumulate. Being at 150’ and just north of the main heat island helps.
