LongBeachSurfFreak

The timing is just off. This is one of those scenerios where New Jersey gets crushed today, decaying showers cross the western island overnight only ramp back up and slam the east end and southern New England tomorrow. It’s always amazed me how that timing always seems to play out.

And…. We will be lucky to crack a tenth on the island.(south shore mainly)This looks almost entirely instability based and with no focusing mechanism the usual suspects are prime.

Paid. END. OF. STORY. This is dangerous, and the exact reason people die needlessly. It’s simple physics….

Honestly I think this is just a local issue with the super high dews And water temps being in the mid 70s. Easily reaching 100% humidity.

Sheet drizzle and fog at the beach this morning. So much for the great beach weekend…

Biggest take away is the near record OHC off the east coast specially around 35n. Any storm threating the east coast will have ample fuel.

I’m definitely liking the water temp configuration more now. What I’m really looking forward to is any storms that make into the subtropics. Given good shear profiles we could see some record far north majors.

Yep, should have watered the veggies.

Meanwhile just to our south massive flooding. If it were an ocean stabilization issue we wouldn’t see eastern New England blowing away our rainfall totals. Something about the geography of the NY bight destroys convection.

When the sea breeze is minimal and we have a another focusing mechanism we can get heavy rain right to the beaches. Weekend looks like a perfect summer weekend.

Sea breeze looks minimal tomorrow. Should allow the coast to rain. Sorry liberty, weeds, mosquitoes and allergies are coming.

I’m trying to move on. But it annoys the crap out of me when tv Mets report the high temp for the region using the park.

It’s an every dog has its day strategy. Just simply using climatology you are likely to be right. When you’re right you pump it out to social media. When you are wrong, deny, block and move on.

I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI.

Absolutely. Growing up in south wantagh it was always “it never rains in the summer”. So it’s certainly not a new phenomenon. If you look at the prominent historical tree species you can see the micro climate. The south shore had plains and pitch pine and oak forest. While the north shore had a fully developed climax deciduous forest. Some of that is soil related but precip patterns also played a role. Water temps have skyrocketed to the mid 70s and that’s when the island as a whole tends to score its biggest precip events. Maybe tomorrow produces.

Yeah I was in the screw zone in between heavier rains north and south. I’ll elaborate as to why I care so much. It’s more then just about my vegetable garden. I’m am a land scape designer and the majority of my work is on the south shore. I did several large installations this spring. One was the entire front of the house I rent in. My landlord hasn’t completed hooking up the irrigation system and promised to hand water if it got dry. While he has watered occasionally the garden looks like shit. Hydrangeas are burned. It would be a simple fix if culturally we accepted native plant gardens. As they are adapted to big swings in precip. But when people want that “wow factor” I have no choice but to use temperamental plants.

About the same here. Didn’t even make it through the trees. Grass is browning. The south shore summer flash drought is a real thing. People who do not live here just do not get it. It’s a micro climate seasonal desert.

If the NE bowing segment over central Jersey maintains we could eek out a thunderstorm southern metro. Has just enough of an ENE component. Looks similar though slightly weaker then the one on 6/19

Exactly. Writing was on the wall. Other then the areas north of the sea breeze front that saw some heavier rain this is going to be a pretty big fail for the rest of us. May even go completely dry in spots.

I’m going to laugh when this broken line of showers comes through and drops .01” on the south shore. I mean, I’m not a degreed met but I could easily forecast the lack of rain based solely off watching the weather here for 20 plus years. Just cancel the flood watch.

Storm forming on the sea breeze front right now near the LIE. You can see the anvil starting to go up from here in lynbrook. South of the front nothing will happen if anything until after 5.

I would have a second Manhattan project but for fusion. Problem solved.

Yup. Sunny all day at jones beach. Sea breeze is currently about 20 knots.

Yeah I agree with all that, climate change most certainly makes these flood disasters more likely. I’m referring more to defunding research and cloud seeding is prohibitively expensive. So there is no way it’s happening on a large scale. It was tried with hurricanes in the 50/60s with silver iodide with limited results.

That’s complete and utter bullshit. I love how there is zero explanation of how it is accomplished. Just implied that the government is aiming to effect the weather. The reality is the complete opposite. But I’m not going to go there as it touches on politics.