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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit
  2. Don, I respect your integrity but the first pic is suspect. Are you sure that was taken today? You know I’m a horticulturalist at Columbia and a huge climate change backer but that pic seems off. We are barely cracking buds on the earliest flowering trees here. And maybe a few daffodils…
  3. It was roaring in lynbrook earlier. Kind of in a lol now that the low is closing in.
  4. 2.32” at the wantagh meso so far. Roads were fine on the way into work. Over 4” on the week, should be around 6” by the weekend.
  5. Long Island about to get smoked
  6. One thing I will agree with, is there happens to be a strong low during that time, you could bring some of that cold down to the surface. That’s where your snow potential exists.
  7. You know things are bad (especially for the ski resorts) when these are the overnight obs from the top of Mt. Washington last night… NW 39 60.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy BKN030 BKN100 37 36 38 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 05:53 NW 41 60.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy FEW030 BKN100 37 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 04:55 NW 41 60.00 Partly Cloudy and Windy SCT120 37 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 03:58 N 44 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 36 36 100% 21 NA NA NA 06 02:57 N 46 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 37 37 100% 22 NA NA NA 06 01:57 N 46 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 37 37 100% 22 NA NA NA 06 00:47 N 36 0.06 Fog and Windy VV002 37 37 39 37 100% 23 NA NA NA 0.40 05 23:56 NW 23 0.06 Light Rain Fog and Breezy VV002 37 37 100% 26 NA NA NA
  8. That’s a very solid east coast landfall look. I wouldn’t if there are multiple landfalls from Florida to the NE including majors.
  9. Hopefully we do not end up with the whole water table rising this month. October 05 the entire block I grew up on had 1-2’ of water in the basement. And in that case there isn’t much you can do about it until the levels drop. It’s not a flash flood more like a prolonged mess.
  10. I recorded 11.5” for the season at 120th and Broadway. Obviously the park was low, first Feb event 5.5” while the park was 3.2” for example.
  11. There are plenty of us who love the seasons being the way they are supposed to be. I’m a horticulturalist and these early warmups are awful for dormant plants. If it’s going to get warm early it has to stay warm or we risk damage.
  12. It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern.
  13. If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park:
  14. March has always been my favorite month in the mountains. Tons of snow, fully open terrain, slightly warmer weather and diminishing crowds. Not looking promising outside of the furthest north mountains, like White Face, Jay and Sugarloaf. Depending on how it plays out I may do a long weekend at sugarloaf.
  15. It’s never a lock that we see a hurricane locally, but odds are certainly higher than normal this season. I fully expect a parade of major hurricanes coming out of the MDR this season.
  16. There’s a climate change sub forum with a thread on sea ice.
  17. Really roaring currently at in Lynbrook. I do not have an anemometer (besides a hand held) but based off the sound in the trees some of the strongest gusts in a couple of years.
  18. We do not even need something that strong. A nice loop track like 1888 with 2020’s moisture would do the trick. 1888 is far and above the best winter storm in our area after 1850. With a snow board I’m sure NYC had 30+.
  19. What I would really like to see before we pass the tipping point is an area wide 30”+ mega storm. What we really need is a reshuffle to get us back to a more -epo pattern again. Hopefully this will El Niño reshuffled the deck. A super high ACE season looks like a lock, which often precedes a good winter. We don’t need much to beat the last 3.
  20. A couple of sleet pellets mixed with rain currently on the uws. Looking forward to warmer days.
  21. Which is impossible over thousands of miles of boreal forests in northern Canada. Just like the fires last summer couldn’t be put out. There is zero infrastructure, no roads, thousands of lakes and bogs not to mention mosquitoes swarms that block out the sun.
  22. He would have died eventually from arsenic poisoning. He was subsisting exclusively on rats which are loaded with arsenic from eating bait traps. The rats are building an immunity to rat poison over time.
  23. What a would give for a VEI 7 in our lifetime. Obviously somewhere unpopulated. Say Kamchatka. I would love to walk across the Hudson to New Jersey, something that happened regularly in the LIA. Solid snow pack from mid November to mid April. The kind of winter you now have to go a thousand miles north for or over 3000’.
  24. I’m fairly confident we are going to see a historic season. The only hindrance from record breaking may be a Nina background state lag early on. Once to peak season, we should fire on all cylinders. I can see a 2017 type parade of high end storms tracking out of the MDR. Bermuda high placement will determine if it’s a CONUS year.
  25. Thanks for sharing. I too am in recovery. We are passionate people. As you stated a big part of recovery is learning redirect that passion in positive ways. You do a great job of that with your seasonal forecasts which I enjoy every year. Congratulations on 10 years, that’s an amazing accomplishment!
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