LongBeachSurfFreak

This has a short to be the first long track Cape Verde hurricane in early August in long time. Genuine east coast threat and prolific swell producer.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if someone has a flash flood emergency. Meanwhile it’s the hottest day of the season at the beach. We have had 2 heat stroke incidents with people unconscious.

Saw two sharks fully breach out of the water into the air yesterday within 200 yards of the beach. Had to ban swimming for a while. Bunker pods are active but still much smaller then a few years ago. Water temps should approach 80 today and tomorrow with light winds and excellent solar heating. That means hot right to the beaches with little sea breeze relief.

I Live in you’re town. Do you drive around? During the last big rain event you referenced JFK getting 2”. There was a very sharp cutoff at the queens border. We received around an inch total. Since then nearly every convective event has missed. We are sitting in the 1.5” range for the last 30 days. That is in no way sufficient for peak solar insulation. This is a reoccurring theme the last few years. As we seem to rely on convection almost exclusively for summer rain. Our ecosystem developed with more spread out synoptic stratoform rains. Not just convection. The opinion posts are tiring and a big part of why myself and others post allot less here. I get it you love heat and hate rain in the summer. Move to fuking phoenix and be in you’re glory.

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

Euro AI relies on pattern analogs. Which Jb loves so I’m not at all surprised he has an affinity for it. To me, it looks dead until the 3rd week of August. Shear and dry air are still lurking.

Going to need something tropical/sub tropical for that. And it looks dead until at least late August.

Yeah it’s getting dry. Burned lawns and wilting plants. Pretty par for the course for summer near the coast. Last year was exceptional and second only to the summer 95 Hamptons fire summer drought. Tomorrow looks good for .5-1” for anyone that gets under good convection.

What the water temps are within 25 miles of the coast has little impact on any tropical activity up here. Because we have some of the longest and shallowest continental shelf in the world. Super shallow water has little to no OHC. That’s why it’s left off OHC maps. What we need to focus on is the water temps from 50 to 300 miles off the coast. And those waters are less effected by localized upwelling events. Those waters are currently near record warm. Here’s the Delaware bay buoy

Makes sense as the instruments are on the east side of the park so the wind was blowing off the densely urban UES.

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season.

Drove through localized flash flooding on the southern state right at the meadow brook. That tiny cell has some insane rates.

Central Jersey storm/ff hot spot does it again. Amazingly consistent year after year down there. Meanwhile just showers amounting to a few hundredths on the island.

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

Thanks for keeping track of that stat don. It was hot right down to the ocean today.

0.0 here today 1” with the last event. Wouldn’t exactly call it water world on the island. Parts of the east end had .10” last event.

You’re in the central Jersey severe alley. That comes with allot of convective rain. Out here in the south shore desert I would pay to see the kind of storms you get.

Changed my plans today for water park to big snow. It’s unbearable even for a water park. I was working on my veggie garden this morning and was drenched in sweat in 20 minutes.

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced.

All the gaurds I work with and we have about 1000 years between us are saying it’s the warmest it’s been this early. Usually you get a day or two in the high 70s in August. Unless we see a reversal to strong westerly’s, sustained low 80s are possible in August.

The water never gets as warm as the land on a sunny summer day. But as we get later into the summer that effect is less and less pronounced. With less solar insulation and water temps at maximum the sea breeze mechanism is muted. Plus you generally have the highest PWAT potential in August.

It’s the sea breeze. You can see the exact thing play out in Florida everyday with water temps there in the mid 80s. It has to do with locally higher pressure over and near the water. As the land heats and warms it creates an area of lower pressure which acts as a focusing mechanism inland. Enhanced convection 30-50 miles inland is exactly what we saw yesterday.

It absolutely did. Amounts drop of a cliff east of the queens border. The east end barely saw a shower.

South shore getting a nice batch of rain currently adding to the .5” from yesterday. I’ll take it.

Nice sunny day at the beach after some morning clouds. Sea breeze is cranking right now. Going to stay dry here as expected.