LongBeachSurfFreak

One of the things we have going for us in that scenario is the tendency to follow the Gulf Stream. High resolution models will have a better handle on that as we get closer. It’s the difference between a warning event for the coast or just some slushy accumulations

Because they do not ride the American weather model and emotional rollercoaster. we saw how important high position is this time of year (slightly earlier) with last November’s event. The trends with the high placement have been great today. But at the this lead time all they are, are trends. I’m feeling confident everyone see at least some snow now

I would be willing to bet a large sum of money that December ends several degrees above normal. Repeating patterns have been incredibly persistent the last few years. Cold November’s followed by mild December’s. It’s going to be a -PNA month all the way. And happy Thanks Giving everyone!

It could have worked out differently last winter had the storm track been more favorable. I think we toss December this year but after that cash in. We have seen a much more coastal storm track this year. With the locking nature of patterns what was miss after miss last winter easily could have been hit after hit. Is it going to be a legendary winter like 95/96, most likely not, but not a rater either.

Agreed, you want to be above 80 for this type of setup regardless of the time of year.

With a primary doing what it’s doing at the this time of year it’s a solid bet the coast is rain. In Jan/feb it would be still be a stretch. There is a chance if the secondary really bombs and is in the perfect spot you could see a flip to snow with the CCB but that’s about it

For December that’s pretty likely. Later in the winter we should get the goods. The storm track off the coast so far has been encouraging.

My uncle has a house at 1900’ just south of Binghamton and said there was a freezing rain overnight Saturday. He ended up getting 4” of snow later in the day

NYC 27” Ewr 31” Isp 34” Jfk 21” Mmu 64” Bdr 32” MJg 72” Home (lynbrook) 22” almost all of coastal snow falls in a 3 week period from late January to early February. Inland does well in marginal gradient patterns that screw the coast

Drizzle on the uws. Haven’t had any sleet and I have been outside working all morning. With the stronger winds later today it’s going to be a leaf blizzard here with oaks finally in full drop mode

I wrote we could get lucky with an early season event. It’s still a little early for the coast just look at past storm numbers, so it’s going to be thread the needle. Cold has to be timed right and readily available or it’s 33 and rain at the coast will inland cashes in.

Yeah, that’s why I agree with BW, we have seen this show a million times. Models look great in the long run only to default back to pattern recognition. We could get lucky and score an early season event but my money’s on the big show coming sometime in late January

You can still force storms to cut if the SE ridge is too strong regardless of the -NOA -EPO combo.

About as boring a weather day as you can get. Great for finishing fall cleanups. Looks like the weak storm this weekend will produce some snow for the ski resorts

Exactly, I’ll pass on a -NAO in April. The one thing that’s concerning is the near repeat of the past 2 cold seasons thus far with record breaking November cold. Do we follow the same narrative? Also, does an early season -NAO without arctic air access cut it for the coast.

https://www.stratton.com/the-mountain/webcams Getting some good snow at Stratton right now.

We end up with a Maritime polar airmass with that scenario. Not going to cut it for snow along the coast. Inland and way up is a different story

“Moving at a reduced speed to stay behind the storm” Do they not know how the ocean works? This is inconceivable to me after the last few incidents. The bad press effects the industry greatly. I ha e spoken to numerous people that will not take cruises because of it

.50” at the wantagh meso. Last nights brief heavy rain in the city finally washed away the salt from last weeks mess. Looks like a period of fairly boring November weather on the way.

What happened to the wind that was supposed to accompany this nor’easter? It’s still in the city right now

Days one and two this past weekend at Killington. Natural snow was very limited with only a few inches. Being killington there was plenty of man made snow on the trails that were open. The problem was it was packed and by the afternoon the bottle necks were so pushed off that it became a dangerous Ice to moguls mine field. I saw multiple serious injury’s. There were way too many beginners out for those types of conditions and no easy terrain open. I took it easy after my double injury winter last year (broken collar bone followed by shattered wrist).

Blocking is going to be the big key this winter. With too much pac influence we would end up with another inland elevated situation. It’s really hard to get it to snow along the coast without a cold feed from Canada. With a -NAO we can tap cold air from eastern Canada despite pacific influence on the rest of the country. That’s why I’m all in that this isn’t a dud. Even if the winter overall is relatively warm.

I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter

If you look at the foot print of Manhattan developers started building around the park fairly early in the 1880s. Since then not much has changed, you have a large park surrounded by buildings. As far as the lows it’s been dry again, need a cloudy day to keep highs down and we haven’t seen that.

Joke? In all seriousness based on what? It’s a pretty safe bet at this point to go with an above normal winter but there should be another cold period sometime in January-March even 2011/12 had at least one cold period.